Tomorrow the tapes will rise and the crowd will roar to signal the start of this years Cheltenham Festival.
This week’s post is pretty much devoted to jump racing's ‘Olympics’. Today, I am going to share with you two jockey micro angles that will hopefully continue to be profitable at this year’s festival. I have also looked at some of the more interesting trends from tomorrow’s 3m 1f, Ultima Handicap Chase. You will find all this and my Monday selection inside…
Commodore a joy to watch
Before all the exciting Cheltenham information, let’s look at an outstanding jumping performance from Sandown on Saturday.
The racing public love a grey horse and a bold jumping grey is doubly popular. Commodore is both a grey and a bold jumper. The 7-year-old made it three from four over fences when winning the Class 3 handicap chase at Sandown. An easy winner at Warwick on his previous start, he improved on that run on Saturday. He remains a highly progressive handicap chaser whose jumping means he will have a big future in the sphere.
What I enjoyed most from the gelding was the enthusiastic style of running. He just loves galloping and even more importantly jumping. When some people say horses don’t want to jump, show them the video of Commodore winning on Saturday. Even my partner who’s a very casual racing watcher pointed out the greys enthusiasm for the sport. After all it's what racing is all about, jumping!
Cheltenham Festival 2019
Cheltenham Festival Jockey’s
The Cheltenham Festival arguably demands more from a jockey than any other racecourse. So, it's inevitable that the top jockey’s should come to the fore at the meeting and the likes of Ruby Walsh, Davy Russell and Barry Geraghty will no doubt have a winner or two over the next four days.
Here are the two micro angles that I promised you. The stats below are from 2008 onwards.
Race Distance: 2m 5f+
Odds SP: 20/1
15 winners from 51 runners 29% +112 A/E 2.87 25 placed 49% (Each way +136.38)
So that simple micro angle has produced 75% of Davy Russell’s winners at the Cheltenham Festival from 38% of his total rides.
Now for those of you who like a high win strike rate look no further than this one from Ruby Walsh.
Trainer: Willie Mullins
NH Race Type: Hurdle
Race Class: Grade 1 or 2
Last Race Placing: First
20 winners from 42 runners 48% +22.32 A/E 1.43 32 placed 76%
Such qualifiers have provided Ruby Walsh with 45% of his winners at the Cheltenham Festival from just 21% of his total rides.
Coleman & Jacob: On the cold list?
A couple of big-name jockeys who have found winners hard to come by at the Cheltenham Festival are Aidan Coleman and Daryl Jacob:
Aidan Coleman – 1 winner from 114 rides 1% -97 A/E 0.17 12 placed 11%.
Coleman who is set to take the ride on favourite Paisley Park in the Stayers Hurdle could have been expected to have had 5.73 winners, had his last winner came at the 2009 Festival.
Daryl Jacob – 2 winners from 94 rides 2% -74.5 A/E 0.29 23 placed 24%
Jacob who has the pick of the British trained Simon Munir & Isaac Souede owned horses. He last tasted success at the 2014 Festival. He could have been expected to have had 6.85 winners during the period.
Can either jockey get off the cold list this year?
I have another jockey angle for Barry Geraghty plus some interesting trainer micro angles that I will be sharing with subscribers of the Betting Insiders forum each day of the Festival. If you want access to these qualifiers just Click here.
Race in Focus: Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (Class 1)
There are two handicaps on Day 1 of the festival. The one that I am putting under the trends focus today is the 3m 1f Ultima Handicap Chase.
Looking at the ten-year trends. The results below contain 10 winners from 218 runners 40 placed.
Age: 6yo to 8yo’s – 8 winners from 116 runners 26 placed
Last Time Out Placing: Top Five – 9 winners from 133 runners 26 placed
Handicap Chase Wins: 0 to 1 – 10 winners from 137 runners 33 placed
Official Rating: 141 to 148 – 7 winners from 89 runners 20 placed
Distance Move: Stepping Down or Same Distance – 0 winners from 60 runners 9 placed
Runs At Track: 0 – 0 winners from 34 runners 5 placed
Trends Verdict: The four horses on my shortlist for the race would be Minella Rocco, Crucial Role, Activial and Flying Angel.
Clearly Minella Rocco is the fly in the ointment as he's a well handicapped horse on the best of his form, when he finished runner-up to Sizing John in the 2017 Gold Cup.
Crucial Role is one of the least exposed horses in the field, having just had the four starts over fences. An improving 7-year-old, he makes his handicap chase debut here. On the negative side he has burst blood vessels twice this season and the big field scenario is a new test for him.
Flying Angel & Activial have yet to win beyond 2m 5f but look on competitive marks if their stamina hold for the distance.
If you want to follow my Cheltenham Festival Eyecatcher selections just Click here.
Last week’s Monday tip Final Attack failed to win but finished a close-up 3rd, giving us a good run for our money. If you were on each way, the 15/2 advised price enabled you to make a small profit on the race.
This week’s selection runs at Kempton.
7:00 – Roman Spinner – The four-year-old likes it around here, all three of her career wins have come at the track – 3 wins from 9 runs +7.50 8 placed. Granted the filly was only 4th here on her last start but that was a Class 3 handicap and she drops back to Class 4 today.
The harder they go up front the better she is. Like when she was beaten just a head over C&D, two starts back off today’s mark. Granted she’s a hostage to the pace of the race but should give her running and has each way claims.
Roman Spinner – 13/2 or bigger
Until next week.