Mr Chocolate Drop finished 4th yesterday at 20/1 and so just missed out on the place money!
As promised yesterday I've done some research into horses that are back in a class that they have had a 100% place record in previously.
I've tried to replicate the conditions that highlighted Mr Chocolate Drop and although I've squeezed out some profit from the analysis, it's not a huge profit and I need to follow it live for a while before I can be confident that the selections are worth following.
The rules I've ended up with are…
All Weather Handicap Races
Horse has placed 100% of races in today's Class
Odds greater than 5/4
Horse has placed more than 66% of time on going
The results for 2013 are…
Runs = 151
Wins = 36
Strike Rate = 23.84%
Profit at iSP = 24.5
Return on Investment = 16.23%
Two qualify today…
Stat Attack today has two 100% horses…
Burren View Lady (4.30 Wolverhampton) – Has placed 100% of its races at Wolverhampton at today's distance on today's going. (3/1 Bet 365)
Both could win but neither appeals at the prices!
I may have a small bet on Commandable, but he is only having his second race in the UK and I may have to add a rule regarding number of previous UK races!
1.00 Southwell Raging Bear – eachway bet – 13/2 Will Hill