Today we have a guest post from Mathematician Betting. To trial their free service Click Here.
There has been a debate over many years between “SYSTEMITES” and “FORM STUDENTS” as to the best way to proceed to betting profits.
The systemites believe that the best chance you have of making money is not through form analysis, but through historical data and number crunching reams of raw racing data over the years in an effort to identify successful avenues to profit.
The form students on the other hand believe that the only way you can prosper is through meticulous study in the form book .
Both sides have respected and successful players and the debate is still not settled .
Horse Racing Systems are forms of betting that reflect years of data, concerning multiple angles such as Trainers, Jockeys, Horses, Sires, Ground, Class, Courses, Favourites, Outsiders, Absences, Fitness, Owners, Ages of Horses, Weight Penalties and many more types of angle that have historically proven to be profitable over the years.
One example of a simple system approach may be the fact that if you followed all the offspring of Rubiano on the All Weather, you would have made massive profits as they have an astonishing record and are under bet as people have not realised yet how strong a Sire Rubiano is on fibresand.
The critics of systems will point out that once that knowledge has been identified and being used by many, then it will inevitably start to reflect on the Starting Prices of such horses which will reduce.
Subsequently long term the system will move into a loss making situation.
There appears to be a lot of sense in both arguments, but the Rubiano example is one of thousands of possible systems that can be adapted and developed that could win you money.
FORM STUDENTS believe that the past Form of racehorses is by far the best angle that you can use. If Horse A beats Horse B then under similar conditions it should do so again.
One step further is collateral form where they say that if Horse A beats horse B and If horse B then in another race beats Horse C then should Horse A meet Horse C Horse A should win.
Obviously its far more complicated than that in practise and collateral form lines can be long and arduous , but they generally believe that past Form can separate the abilities of horses and identify winning bets.
One thing I have learnt is that its very hard to persuade anyone from either camp that they are going about things the wrong way .
So which side are we on ?
Many years ago I was anti – systems as I didn't really appreciate the scope that this style of betting had,and I was firmly a “Form book” junkie.
Over the years you refine your betting and continue learning and I would say that my position has changed a lot. I am not afraid to change when I think I am wrong. I stand in neither camp now . I firmly believe that anyone who adopts a rigid in-flexible position and who is unable to consider the merits of other forms of analysis, is going to struggle to win .
If the form book says a horse is an even money chance to win and yet the statistics prove that the trainer has sent hundreds of horses to that specific track and failed to train a winner there before, then you are a fool if you don't take notice of that .
Similarly if a system identifies that you should religiously bet a certain type of horse blindly under certain conditions, you would be foolish not to use the Form book to see what possible flaws this has in relation to the opposition that day .
I know people who make regular profits at racing through following well researched systems developed and proven over a number of years. Equally I know people who win money at betting every year through analysis of Form .
The issue as a Racing Tipster is far more complicated. I know of No Service that can win clients money at Racing using a single-angle approach.
Knowledge is Power and you are wrong to ignore anything that can help you reach your goals .
I use the Form Book, but I am in no way a slave to it and can see its inadequacies are glaring at times. I also use a strong historical perspective in my betting and do not flaunt bets in the face of proven systems or historical trends that have been discovered over the years
I am only happy when every angle has been covered and my selection can stand up against the most rigorous of test from both the Form Book and the Systemites.
Click Here to join the Mathematician Free Bets Service
Haydock 2.50 Mixed Message – each way selection