Tag Archives: argument

SAW 9 Winners

In last week’s post I told you about this new “open” test we have been doing over at the Grey Horse Bot website.

Since then we have had 9 winners and gained about 6 points if we took all the selections.
The test is also to see if it is more profitable to “stop at a winner” rather than just keep betting on every selection.

This is an interactive test based around one of our in house ratings and the morning and midday Betfair prices.

We are calling it “interactive” because you can choose the ratings figure to base the selections around.

I choose 220 and so far this month it has been far better to bet on every selection than it is to SAW.

That may not be true of every figure which is why we wanted people to experiment.

These are low priced and often (but not always) favourites.

Using 220 is giving an overall strike rate of 52.26% and an average price of 1.34.

We are doing a little better this month with an average strike rate of 56.52 but our average price is a little lower at 1.31.

270 is a good figure to go for if you want a better strike rate although 350 or above is better but it is hard to gauge how accurate they are because the amount of selections available in the results is quite low.

So far anything under 190 hasn’t performed very well this month unless you switch to SAW and use a maximum daily loss strategy of 3.

A loss strategy is important for SAW otherwise you can wipe out your profits very quickly on a losing run.

I know I go against the “value” idea with these types of low price test…

…But my argument is that if my average winning odds is higher than the strike rate suggest then haven’t we found value?

Ok maybe a little “tongue in cheek” and it is quite early days as far as this test is concerned.

If you would like to take part then pop over to the Grey Horse Bot web site.



The Grey Horse Bot

Today's Selection

16:00:00 Newbury Might Bite – win bet – 13/8 Sporting Bet

Rolling Doubles Staking Plan

This idea started off as an argument in a pub, but I'm sober now and it still seems to make sense!

So the conversation started with a discussion about how doubles, trebles, accas etc were mugs bets and bookie benefits.

Then it moved onto examples of where a double was a solid bet because it multiplied the value and it ended with me promising to test a theory out on one of our odds on systems.

You'll remember a while back we published a system for backing odds on shots when certain jockeys were on board.

Well I've taken the results for that system back to March 2011 and compared level stakes back betting at SP with betting a rolling doubles staking plan.

The theory being that because it is a high strike rate system that there will be lots of winning runs. And more winning runs than losing runs, so it makes sense to bet the selections in doubles instead of singles!

So here's how I've calculated this…

Race 1 Horse 1
Race 2 Horse 2
Race 3 Horse 3
Race 4 Horse 4

We bet a double on Horse 1 with Horse 2, we also bet a double on Horse 2 with Horse 3 and so on.

So the next bet will be a double on Horse 3 with Horse 4.

Sometimes these horses will run on different days, in which case you bet a single and if it wins you place the whole return on the next qualifier on the day that it runs.

How did that work out?

Well level staking over the 449 bets produced a profit of 46.79 which is a 10.4 % Return on Investment (ROI).

Rolling doubles staking produced a profit of 96.26 which is a 21.4% ROI which is almost double! Spooky!

Today's Selection

3.00 Leicester Kodafine – win bet – 4/1 Bet 365

Formula 1 Betting

Today I have a big discount offer for you on a very comprehensive F1 tipping service.

This very comprehensive service is an absolute bargain price, but once you take off the 33% discount that we've secured it's even better value 🙂

This weeks main tips for the Malaysian Grand Prix are not out yet, but having read the comprehensive preview there is one bet that I'm going to get involved with.

The F1 tipster built up a big argument as to why Lewis Hamilton is huge value at 2/1 to win the Malaysian Grand Prix, but it boils down to the fastest driver in the fastest car is 2/1 to win when they should be odds on.

The bet is to either back Hamilton and lay him off when his price shortens closer to race time, or just back and hold.

You can get 2/1 with Betfred.

There will no doubt be a whole host of additional bets coming as we get closer to the weekend and if you want to be on then join Betfan F1 through our link for a 33% discount.

The regular price is £34.97 + vat for the whole 2014 season, but with this link you go direct to the payment page where you can join for just £23.31 + vat.

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Today's Selection

2.00 Lingfield – Drawnfromthepast – win bet – 3/1 Racebets

Pulled Up System

Here's a simple system that I have had on live trial for a year now.

There's not many bets but those that come up have performed well.

I first put this into HorseRaceBase because I read somewhere that when a Paul Nicholls horse is pulled up they very often come straight back and win.

To be honest I can't even remember the argument or reasoning that was put forward for this idea, but a year on the numbers speak for themselves.

Runs = 25
Wins = 5
Strike Rate = 20.83%
Profit at iSP = 13.5
Return on Investment = 54%

This is since February 15th 2013.

The rules are simple, just back any Paul Nicholls runner that was pulled up last time.

Today's Selection

Lingfield 3.10 Shooters Wood – win bet – 9/2 Bet 365, Sky Bet

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