Tag Archives: aspects

Pro Gambling Training Course

Michael Wilding's Puntology Pro Punter course goes live today and is only open for a few days.

The first lesson features a ratings method that will get you started with profitable betting immediately.

There is also a video walk through of this first lesson to make sure everybody gets up to speed quickly.

Future lessons build on the ratings method and also cover all aspects of betting, including…

Bet Types and Betting Methods
Finding Your Betting Niche
Money Management
Understanding Race Types
The Essentials of Handicapping a Race
Understanding Form
Form Commentary Reading
Understanding the Going and Weight
The Use of Statistics
What is the True Edge
Organising Your Finances
Methods of Research
Creating Your Own Ratings
Analysing a Race
Creating Power Ratings

If you have ambitions to make serious money from your betting then this course is highly recommended.

Click Here for full details of the course and the bonuses.

Today's Selection

15:25:00 Southwell Come On Laurie – win bet – 6/1 Bet 365, Paddy Power, Bet Victor

Dropped Handicap Ratings

Back in April I had an idea for a winning system.

I can't remember where the idea came from, but most likely it was from something that I read.

It was a simple idea…

Horses that are running off of a lower official rating today than they did last time should win more than those that have a higher mark.

Although many might think that this means the horse is losing ability and is on the decline, the fact is that trainers spend a lot of time trying to get the OR of their charges lowered.

I spent some time researching different handicap marks to find where this idea might do best.

Today I'll share one of those systems with you and (er) show you that finding winning angles in past results is no guarantee of future winnings.

In fact this may become a new lay system such has been the performance since April.

Now first I should say that this is a National Hunt system, so it may be a summer off season thing, although past results show profit in the summer.

So the rules were…

National Hunt
Today's Rating between 110 – 120
Last times ratings greater than 110
Course = Aintree, Carlisle, Cartmel, Ffos Las, Folkestone, Fontwell, Plumpton, Sedgefield, Southwell

The profits at the time I researched this were not great and luckily for that reason I decided not to include them in my bets, the return on investment was 8.5%.

Since I created the system there has been a loss of 58.93 points & -44% ROI.

The key thing to take from this is that when you research a system that you should test it on a separate set of data to see if the idea stands up.

Although I try hard not to back fit systems we are looking for the best results from past data. This system is a reminder of the dangers of backfitting.

And a reminder that we should always check a bought system has been tested live somewhere before we pay money for it.

Next step with this is to decide whether we can lay these selections, that decision is a way down the line yet as I want to see more live results and may want to tweak it towards more losers. IE I obviously looked for the most profitable courses originally whereas if I'm thinking of laying these then I want to look at negative aspects.

I'll keep you posted.

Today's Lay Debutants

14:20:00 Leicester 5 Freemason
14:20:00 Leicester 10 Moxey
14:20:00 Leicester 13 Syros (IRE)
15:00:00 Redcar 4 Focusofourthoughts (IRE)
15:00:00 Redcar 1 Garfunkel (IRE)
16:20:00 Leicester 7 Mississippi Queen
16:20:00 Leicester 12 Surcingle (USA)
16:20:00 Leicester 13 Sweeping Up
16:30:00 Redcar 12 Kalanis Diamond
16:30:00 Redcar 3 Tasrih (USA)

Today's Selection courtesy of CB Sports Investments

2.50 Leicester Talented Kid – win bet – 9/4 Bet Victor, Boylesports, Sky Bet

Handicap Draws

Did you get involved at Chester on Friday?

You will recall that we said stalls 1 and 2 were favoured, particularly over 5 furlongs, 6 furlongs, 1 mile 3 and 1 mile 4.

The results on Friday for the two 5 furlong races were a win for stall 1 at 4/1 and a win for stall 2 at 7/4.

And there was a race at 1 mile 4 furlongs which was won by the stall 1 horse at 7/2.

Saturday saw a 9/1 winner from stall 1 in the 6 furlong handicap, with stall 1 or 2 placing in the other two qualifying races.

Not everybody appreciates the info though, I got this email before racing…

are you taking the pi** my name is ******, i was born in curzon park west 48 years ago which overlooks the roodeye ive watched every race at chester since i could walk,and your trying to give me advice about chester race course,only 2 jockeys could ever ride chester and master it,the great lester piggot,and unbelievably alex greaves.no other jockey ive ever seen could bounce out a horse drawn low over 5 furlongs like them two,and todays jockeys havent a clue,you have to be whipping the horse out of the stalls,so thanks but no thanks,and please take me off your mailing list *******

I've added the asterisks but otherwise that's the whole mail as I received it 🙂

That aside I picked up an excellent tip for researching draw biases over the weekend.

Actually it was one of those ideas that's so obvious I can't believe I hadnt already thought of it myself, doh.

Basically the advice was that when researching biases regarding aspects of the course or conditions then do your research on handicaps, because in theory all runners should be equally matched. So any bias should be more prominent.

So for example with the draw if the horse in the stall you are looking at is a no hoper then his run will skew the statistics. But if all runners are handicapped to win then the results should be a better representation of the facts.

The next Chester meeting is on August 4th and Pontefract is this Friday.

Today's Selection courtesy of No Risk Tipster (Try for 1 month free)

Wolverhampton 9.20 Glenridding – win bet – 4/1 Boylesport

Big Priced Golf Selections

Following on from my post the other day about big priced selections and specifically Dave Bicknell's Golf selections, today I have for you Dave's full analysis and selections for the McGladrey Classic which tee's off at 12.35 today.

Don't forget to check out http://proballclub.co.uk/ for full details of Dave's selections and his past results.

The Pro Ball service is £50,000 in profit this year to £100 stakes and is the perfect service if you are looking for a balanced portfolio with plenty of action.


THE MCGLADREY CLASSIC

We travel this week to georgia and the Sea side course sea island is our home for the week. This is a well respected venue used as a practice course for many pro's who are resident in the area.

Sea island golf club is a ocean side links course thattests all aspects of your game . It's exposed so any sea breeze can become a factor to how you approach this test. It's just above the 7000 yard mark and is a par 70 that will require accuracy to the undulating fairways protected by marshland,waste areas and large fairway bunkers, you will require course management and precise approach play to the fast putting surfaces as well as the ability to scramble and deal with any costal conditions.

The weather for this week looks to start well with winds estimated between 10-15 mph the weekend is a little tougher to call but predictions are for no major change.

E/W PICKS

Z JOHNSON 12-1
J FURYK 14-1
J DAY 16-1
B ADAMS 66-1
G CHRISTIAN 150-1
D MATHIS 200-1

ZACH JOHNSON Is a local resident who knows the course well his accuracy and great short game touch make him a must pick, he did miss the cut last year but was involved in a lot of off course work through out the week , he will be returning from a two week lay off after the ryder cup so is well rested, his two wins this year also came after two week lay offs.

J FURYK Is only missing a win he has constantly put himself in position to close this year and although tasted disappointment he is becoming more like the player who won the fed ex cup and will turn these chances into victories, it's a week field and he also is returning after a couple of weeks rest , expect an in form furyk who is made for this course 11th here last year.

J DAY Is another player trying to get back to the heights he once occupied , he has four top tens this year which by his standards is poor and i must admit his odds are not very generous but its what he did last time out at the Justin Timberlake event that has me interested, all four rounds were in the 60's , he finished the weekend with rounds of 64,65 (that included a double bogey finish) and he birdied 7 of his first 9 holes taking just 10 putts , jason has been up and down this year with his eye off the ball maybe caused to his new edition in the family but when a player gets that hot making birdies and holing putts you have to take some notice , this could be a kick start to something more.

B ADAMS Has popped up in a few places this year playing some great golf but not getting all he deserves, now in the fall series he has a real chance in weaker fields to reap some rewards. Took a week off after finishing 8th at the Timberlake making 18 birdies and an eagle , this isn't a one off with him lying inside the top 50 for par breakers , he's local and has made the cut the last two years not playing anywhere near his current form.

G CHRISTIAN Missed his first cut in eight events last week after a poor first round , he did bounce back with a nice 68 and will look to continue some excellent form into this event , the course should be right up his street short par 70 with course management a premium , he has great GIR stats and also will compete from 100 yards in only thing holding him back is a sometimes cold putter .

D MATHIS Just inside the top 125 so he needs a big week ,great putter who finished just outside the top 20 last week , finished 15th last year and will look at his strokes gained putting stats and excellent approach play from inside 100 yards to figure big , as with a lot of players he knows how important this tournament is for guaranteed starts next year, he;s responding well to the pressure and i see him taking care of business this week.

BACK BETS DAY 1

T GAINEY
M GOGGIN BACK
B BRYANT

MATT'S HAD GOOD RESULTS HIS LAST TWO EVENTS AND APPEARS TO BE TAKING ADVANTAGE OF SOME FULL TOUR STARTS , FINISHED LAST WEEK PLAYING WELL.

J OVERTON BACK
D CHOPRA
G WILLIS

JEFF IS ANOTHER IN FORM PLAYER ON THE EDGE OF RETURNING TO HIS TOP FORM, CLOSE TO BEING AN E/W PICK THIS WEEK.

Pro Ball Club members also have selections for the Perth International as well as football and racing bets.


Today's Selection Courtesy of Value Backing

Kempton 7.30 The Art Of Racing – win bet

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