Tag Archives: Astonishing

Haydock Tips

Today we have a guest post from Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders.

Nick shares Haydock tips and pointers for this evening and tomorrow afternoon.

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There is some excellent racing at Haydock this weekend as the course holds its three day meeting with the highlight being the Lancashire Oaks on Saturday. Before I get to that race, here are a few pointers for a trainer with an excellent record at the track.

Tom Dascombe

Tom Dascombe has had 41 winners from 181 runners at the course since 2010 at a strike rate of 22.65% and a level stakes profit of £63.62. Over 1 in 3 of his runners reach the frame with 67 placed horses from those 181 runners at a place strike rate of 37.02%.

21 of his winners have come in non-handicap races (from 81 runners) for a level stakes profit of £54.21 at a strike rate of 24%. Of greater significance is the fact he has had 4 runners in non-handicaps at the course this season and they have finished 4111.

His entries at Haydock over the weekend in non-handicap races are:

Stec (Friday 8.15pm) 7f maiden
The Character (Friday 8.45pm) 1m maiden
Bear Behind (Saturday 2.20pm) 6f conditions race
Wall Of Sound (Saturday 2.55pm) Group 2 1m 4f

His handicappers are 20-93 (SR 21.51%, £9.41 level stakes profit) since 2010 at the course. In the last 2 years those figures read 17-69 (SR 24.64%, £17.91 level stakes profit). In 2014 he has saddled 4 winners from 14 runners in handicap races at Haydock.

However, if we remove those runners who went off bigger than 16/1 he has a 50% strike rate (4 winners from 8 runners) and a level stakes profit of £21.50. His handicap entries over the weekend are:

Captain Whoosh (Friday 6.45pm) 5f hcap
Celestial Vision (Friday 7.15pm) 2yo hcap (nursery)
Dreams Of Reality (Saturday 1.45pm) 5f hcap
Capo Rosso (Saturday 4.40pm) 7f hcap

Any of Dascombe’s horses ridden by Richard Kingscote are worth a second look. They form a great partnership and have teamed up for 31 winners already this season. This partnership has produced figures of 211311 in their last six rides. At Haydock in 2014 they are 4-10 for a level stakes profit of 16.88pts.

Lancashire Oaks

It is no secret that John Gosden is having a terrific season and his fillies in particular have been in cracking form.

When competing against their own sex, Gosden’s fillies are 13-82 to a level stakes profit of £9.90.

A win strike rate of 15.85% does not stand out as being exceptional, but on closer order you will find that 45 of those 82 runners finished in the places at a huge strike rate of 54.88%.

If we dig a little deeper we find that all 13 winners competed in non-handicap races (from 67 runners). Again, a massive 41 of those 67 fillies filled the places at a place strike rate of 61.19%.

With the Lancashire Oaks in mind, we can look specifically at the race distance 1m 4f.

This season he has sent out 9 fillies over 1m 4f (non-handicaps) and they have finished 331112130.

That’s 4 winners and 8 placed horses from 9 runners.

He runs Pomology and Sultanina in this year’s renewal and both can be given solid chances.

Pomology seeks to defy an absence of 328 days but cannot be discounted, especially as her trainer has won this race 5 times since 1997 and has won 3 of the last 11 renewals.

John Gosden also trained Place Rouge to win this on her debut in 2003, so the lengthy absence of Pomology is considered a slight concern rather than a big negative.

Sultanina and Freedom’s Light finished 1-2 in the Pinnacle Stakes over C&D in May with Silk Sari, Special Meaning and Astonishing in behind.

Freedom’s Light won a Listed race over 12f next time out to frank that form.

Sultanina was unraced as a 3yo but is 2-2 as a 4yo and is open to bags of improvement having only her third run. This is a better race than the two she has won but she is largely unexposed.

There have been seven 3yo and seven 4yo winners since 1997 and the 3yo horses get a hefty allowance of 13lb. However, only one 3yo has managed to win in the last 7 renewals.

The sole 3 year old lining up here is Richard Hannon’s Lustrous. She loved the step up to 1m 4f when finishing a staying-on second to Bracelet in the Group 2 Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot.

As long as that has not taken too much out of her she should have a great chance here in receipt of 13lbs.

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Dr Nick Hardman is a regular contributor of winning systems analysis and tips at the Betting School Insiders Club. Find out more about the Betting School Insiders Club here

http://dailypunt.com/betinsiders

Epsom Oaks Selections

We have a real treat today (and tomorrow actually) with an analysis of Friday's Investec Oaks along with some recommended bets from Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders.

Investec Oaks Preview

The Oaks looks like a great betting race on Friday.

Taghrooda and Marvellous head the betting with Tarfasha and Ihtimal not too far behind.

Everything else is available at double figures which makes this an ideal race for each-way players. It is certainly not a race for favourite backers in recent times with the last four winners returning at odds of 20/1 (Talent 2013), 20/1 (Was 2012), 20/1 (Dancing Rain 2011) and 9/1 (Snow Fairy 2010).

Sariska in 2009 was the last favourite to win. In 2008 it was another big outsider who prevailed in Look Here @33/1. In fact only 3 favourites have prevailed in the last 10 years.

The Oaks has some strong trends and that is where we will start.

All of the last 10 winners had raced over further than a mile. That is a really interesting statistic as it would rule out leading fancy Marvellous.

Casual Look in 2003 was the last filly to win stepping up from a mile.

Six of the last 10 winners won last time out which would rule out Ihtimal from those prominent in the market.

Interestingly it would also rule out all of the O’Brien runners with the exception of Marvellous.

I wouldn’t actually let that put you off backing Ihtimal as a stronger statistic is that 15 of the last 17 winners had a top three finish last time out and she qualifies on that score.

In fact Ihtimal is a fascinating runner. She has form on good-to-soft, good-to-firm and on tapeta where she won the UAE 100 Guineas and the UAE Oaks over 10 furlongs.

Both were Group 3 races but she followed that up with an excellent third in the 1000 Guineas at the Rowley Mile. Of those at the front of the market I think she represents the best value at 8/1.

The lightly raced Madame Chiang is another fascinating runner, especially if the rain gets into the ground between now and race day.

She has only seen a racecourse twice; winning her maiden over a mile on soft ground at Yarmouth before winning the Musidora over 10f at York on her seasonal reappearance (also on soft ground).

With plenty of improvement possible and bred to stay the extra 2 furlongs, she also represents value at the current odds of 14/1.

John Gosden’s string are in cracking form at the moment, especially his fillies. Sultanina (10/1) and Freedom’s Light (9/1) were first and second in a photo finish in the Group 3 Pinnacle Stakes at Haydock last Saturday, thrashing the likes of Group winner Cubanita and Sir Maichael Stoute’s Astonishing.

Taghrooda is Gosden’s only representative and if she is the pick of his middle distance fillies at home then she could be hard to beat. I prefer her over Aiden O’Brien’s Marvellous for the simple reason she has form in the book over 10f and has fewer questions to answer regarding the trip of 1m 4f. However, at 7/2 I am prepared to look elsewhere.

In addition to the big priced outsiders who have won this race in recent times, we have also had placed horses at 16/1, 16/1, 25/1, 25/1 and 25/1 in the last 5 years.

Of those that are currently in that price bracket, Luca Cumani’s Volume has possibilities of making the frame. She has yet to finish out of the 3 in 8 races to date, although two of those were handicaps. She also won the trial at Newbury which is the same race where Izzy Top beat Dancing Rain in 2012.

Those two went on to contest the Oaks and finished 3rd and 1st at 25/1 and 20/1 respectively. She has to improve on what she has done so far but if the ground has some juice in it then she looks all about stamina and could be staying on at the end.

Epsom Oaks Selections:

Best value: Intimal @8/1
Each-way alternative: Madame Chiang @14/1
Lively outsider: Volume @20/1 (each-way)

It Can Be Done

It Can Be Done by Kevin BlakeMy copy of ‘It Can Be Done' has just arrived, so that's my weekend reading sorted.

This should be some read if it lives up to the promises made in the blurb.

Sick of the negative stereotypes that surround those that bet on horse racing, The Irish Field's chief racing analyst and At The Races pundit Kevin Blake puts his neck on the line and goes public with his betting methods and reveals the thinking behind every bet he had during the 2013 flat season.

All bets struck have been verified by The Irish Field. In this astonishing book he reveals exactly how he won a small fortune in just six months of betting and tells you how IT CAN BE DONE. Kevin's book runs to 154 pages and is essential reading for everyone involved in the horse racing industry.

I've only just got the book so haven't had time to assess it yet, but the first thing I noticed is that there is a profit or loss statement at the end of each chapter.

So I don't want to spoil the ending but at the same time I couldn't resist skipping ahead to the last chapter.

Kevin Blake made a fully verified £44,500 in 5 months, Very Impressive! Order the book on Amazon

I've also got the Puntology Lesson 1 to read and a load of videos to watch, so it's going to be a busy few days.

Mud Maestro

Another winner from Mud Maestro yesterday and we have selections again today.

13:50:00 Huntingdon 4 Generous Ransom (IRE) – 11/4 Bet 365
15:25:00 Huntingdon 4 Brandon Thomas (IRE) – 2/1 Paddy Power
16:00:00 Huntingdon 3 Secret Edge – 14/1 Paddy Power

Systems or Form Book

Today we have a guest post from Mathematician Betting. To trial their free service Click Here.
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There has been a debate over many years between “SYSTEMITES” and “FORM STUDENTS” as to the best way to proceed to betting profits.

The systemites believe that the best chance you have of making money is not through form analysis, but through historical data and number crunching reams of raw racing data over the years in an effort to identify successful avenues to profit.

The form students on the other hand believe that the only way you can prosper is through meticulous study in the form book .

Both sides have respected and successful players and the debate is still not settled .
Horse Racing Systems are forms of betting that reflect years of data, concerning multiple angles such as Trainers, Jockeys, Horses, Sires, Ground, Class, Courses, Favourites, Outsiders, Absences, Fitness, Owners, Ages of Horses, Weight Penalties and many more types of angle that have historically proven to be profitable over the years.

One example of a simple system approach may be the fact that if you followed all the offspring of Rubiano on the All Weather, you would have made massive profits as they have an astonishing record and are under bet as people have not realised yet how strong a Sire Rubiano is on fibresand.

The critics of systems will point out that once that knowledge has been identified and being used by many, then it will inevitably start to reflect on the Starting Prices of such horses which will reduce.

Subsequently long term the system will move into a loss making situation.

There appears to be a lot of sense in both arguments, but the Rubiano example is one of thousands of possible systems that can be adapted and developed that could win you money.

FORM STUDENTS believe that the past Form of racehorses is by far the best angle that you can use. If Horse A beats Horse B then under similar conditions it should do so again.

One step further is collateral form where they say that if Horse A beats horse B and If horse B then in another race beats Horse C then should Horse A meet Horse C Horse A should win.

Obviously its far more complicated than that in practise and collateral form lines can be long and arduous , but they generally believe that past Form can separate the abilities of horses and identify winning bets.

One thing I have learnt is that its very hard to persuade anyone from either camp that they are going about things the wrong way .

So which side are we on ?

Many years ago I was anti – systems as I didn't really appreciate the scope that this style of betting had,and I was firmly a “Form book” junkie.

Over the years you refine your betting and continue learning and I would say that my position has changed a lot. I am not afraid to change when I think I am wrong. I stand in neither camp now . I firmly believe that anyone who adopts a rigid in-flexible position and who is unable to consider the merits of other forms of analysis, is going to struggle to win .

If the form book says a horse is an even money chance to win and yet the statistics prove that the trainer has sent hundreds of horses to that specific track and failed to train a winner there before, then you are a fool if you don't take notice of that .

Similarly if a system identifies that you should religiously bet a certain type of horse blindly under certain conditions, you would be foolish not to use the Form book to see what possible flaws this has in relation to the opposition that day .

I know people who make regular profits at racing through following well researched systems developed and proven over a number of years. Equally I know people who win money at betting every year through analysis of Form .

The issue as a Racing Tipster is far more complicated. I know of No Service that can win clients money at Racing using a single-angle approach.

Knowledge is Power and you are wrong to ignore anything that can help you reach your goals .

I use the Form Book, but I am in no way a slave to it and can see its inadequacies are glaring at times. I also use a strong historical perspective in my betting and do not flaunt bets in the face of proven systems or historical trends that have been discovered over the years

I am only happy when every angle has been covered and my selection can stand up against the most rigorous of test from both the Form Book and the Systemites.
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Today's Selection

Haydock 2.50 Mixed Message – each way selection

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