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Big Race Tips

Thank Nick it's Friday 🙂

Nick Hardman (http://bettinginsiders.com) is back with tips for today's racing at Exeter and tomorrow at Sandown and Aintree.

By the way Nick also has an excellent article in the December On Course Profits magazine which explains his methods for finding winning trainer angles.

You can get that magazine for free at http://oncourseprofits.com

Over to Nick…

I have been working on some betting angles for the AW Championships that I will share with you as soon as they are ready. For a bit of a change I have taken a look at Friday’s card from Exeter which features three valuable races. We follow that up with a trends analysis and some pointers for the Becher Chase and my fancies for the Tingle Creek and the Grand Sefton Handicap Chase.

Exeter hosts a really good card today including a £12k Novice Chase, a £15k Handicap Chase and the £12k Devon Marathon Handicap chase over 4 miles. I have gone through the card in search of value plays and worthwhile betting opportunities.

The novice chase at 1.10pm is a fascinating race featuring a couple of smart former hurdlers in Deputy Dan (2nd in the 2014 Albert Bartlett and rated 145 over hurdles) and Saphir Du Rheu (Lanzarote hurdle winner and Welsh Champion hurdle winner last season and rated 168). Deputy Dan has form figures 21 over fences.

He was beaten on debut by Virak who has since followed up in impressive fashion at Haydock. Deputy Dan won his next start, beating Far West who was also a decent hurdler. That gives him a form line with Dunraven Storm (who also beat Far West) who won a Grade 2 Novice Chase at Cheltenham’s November meeting.

Saphir Du Rheu unseated on debut but is held in high regard by Paul Nicholls and he would win this if translating his hurdles form to fences. Connections (same ownership as Big Buck’s and Celestial Halo) have said they might go back over hurdles if he fails to perform here. If you think he won’t get round you can lay him for a place on the exchanges at around 1.10. If pushed for a tip I would go for Deputy Dan on that form line with Dunraven Storm.

The handicap chase at 1.40pm will probably see Paul Nicholl’s Wilton Milan go off favourite following an impressive win last time out that saw him finally get off the mark over fences. However, I am happy to take him on and the two that interest me are Workbench and Umberto D’Olivate.

Workbench has been on the go since August notching 3 wins in the process. His last two starts were a decent 5th of 11 behind John’s Spirit at Cheltenham and a 4th (revised to 3rd) in the Badger Ales Trophy over further than ideal. He travelled as well as anything that day before making a bad mistake.

The drop in trip could work out well but the concern is that all three wins came on good ground. His trainer Dan Skelton has said he does not want it soft. However, his last two runs were on good to soft so I will definitely be backing him if the going has the word “good” in it.

Umberto D’Olivate was very progressive last season, rattling off a hat-trick and he will come on for his seasonal reappearance. The slight concern is that his best form is over shorter so this trip might just stretch him.

The Devon Marathon Chase has a small field and the 4 miles takes some getting. It is another race that features a few horses with smart previous form and it also lends itself to a trends analysis.

No 6yo has won this since 2000 and no horse in that time has carried more than 11st 10lbs to victory. All of the last 5 winners were rated 110+ and all of the winners completed their previous race.

That leaves us with Reblis, Adrenalin Flight and Gorgehous Lliege.

Reblis is back down to his last winning mark but has shown nothing on his last two starts. He has won over 3m 5f on heavy off today’s mark of 119 so should see out the trip if in the right mood.

Adrenalin Flight has 49 lengths to find with Gorgehous Lliege but gets a 17lb pull in the weights. I doubt that will make much difference though as Gorgehous Lliege looks quite progressive over staying trips and should go close if this does not come too soon.

Reblis and Gorgehous Lliege are the two trends horses against the field. For the brave amongst you, Flying Award has won a Devon National, a Highland National and a Somerset National. However, his form figures since read PP0. I’ll leave that one up to you.

The Becher Chase is run over the Grand National fences where the horses jump 21 obstacles over a trip of 3m 2f. 16 of the last 17 winners had a top 5 finish LTO. Only one 7yo has won since 1997 and 8 of the last 9 winners were aged 9yo or older. The last 9 winners were all rated 130+ and only one of the last 13 winners carried 11st 7lb or more. In fact 10 of the last 13 winners carried under 11st. 15 of the last 17 winners had between 0 and 2 season runs and 8 of the last 11 winners had won over 3m or further.

The one horse who ticks all the boxes is Benbens for Nigel Twiston-Davies. The two that who fall down on just the one trend are Knock A Hand for Richard Lee and Renard for Venetia Williams. This may be a prep run for Knock a Hand ahead of a tilt at the Welsh National, Benbens has had just 6 chase starts and Renard looks a shade high in the weights. None of these are really fancied in the market and I have not seen them tipped up anywhere, but we rolled the trends dice and that’s what we have.

If you are not a fan of trends then there are a couple of other ways of looking at the race and one is course experience.

There are plenty of horses who have shown they jump these fences well including Saint Are, last year’s winners Chance Du Roy and Mr Moonshine. However the most interesting could be Across The Bay @25/1 who led the last two Grand Nationals for a fair way.

In 2013 he led until fence 26 and last year he was bowling along in front until carried into a different post code by a loose horse after fence 16. However, usual jockey Jason Maguire opts to ride Donald McCain’s other runner Kruzhlinin who is an even bigger price @40/1.

Despite this I think Across The Bay could well give each-way backers a run for their money. Saint Are @14/1 is probably the best handicapped horse in the race here off 127 which is 10lbs lower than his last winning mark. He ran his best race in a long time on his first start for Tom George at Cheltenham in November and he has attracted some support this week. It’s a wide open race and a case can be made for most of the runners. I will probably back the trends horses and Across The Bay to small stakes with any bookmaker offering 5 places. It would be a pleasant surprise if one of them were to win.

The Grand Sefton Chase looks like a cracking renewal. The trends on this one are not that strong but the one horse that ticks the most boxes (aged 8yo -10yo, rated 123+, carrying less than 11st 5lbs and a top 5 finish LTO) is Rebel Rebellion who attempts back to back wins off a 5lbs higher mark. 8/1 is plenty short enough.

One I like at a bigger price is Dolatulo who has a good form line through Court By Surprise (promoted to winner of the Badger Ales Trophy after disqualification of Young Master) whom he walloped by 35 lengths at Stratford back in March. His seasonal reappearance behind Sound Investment was a great prep for this race considering the 1st and 4th from that race occupied the front two places of the novice chase at Newbury on the first day of the Hennessy meeting. Up To Something for Charlie Longsdon could also outrun his price if taking to these fences.

The Tingle Creek has been far more straightforward for me. I think God’s Own has a huge chance and I have backed him @9/2 even when he held another entry in the novice chase on the same card. If Somersby brings his A-game he should give each-way backers a decent run for their money @10/1.

So there are my thoughts for Friday and Saturday and hopefully a few pointers for you. Racing is all about having an opinion and the conviction to back it up with a wager. With that in mind only back the selections below if you agree with my thoughts and analysis. Good luck if you are having a bet this weekend.

Friday

Exeter 1.10pm Deputy Dan @6/4
Exeter 1.40pm Umberto D’Olivate @12/1 & Workbench @6/1 (good or good-to-soft)
Exeter 3.20pm Reblis @20/1 & Gorgehous Lliege 3/1 (trends horses), Flying Award @20/1 (for the brave)

Saturday

Sandown 3.00pm God’s Own @9/2 and Somersby @10/1 (each-way alternative)
Aintree 1.30pm Benbens @20/1, Knock A Hand @20/1 & Renard @25/1 (trends horses), Across The Bay @25/1 (each-way alternative), Saint Are @14/1 (best handicapped)
Ainree 3.25pm Rebel Rebellion @8/1 (trends horse) and Dolatulo 14/1 (each-way alternative)

£400,000 Prize Pool

It's time to get your entry in for the Tote Tent To Follow fantasy racing competition.

There are huge prizes for the final winner as well as monthly £10,000 bonus prizes.

To win the prizes all you have to do is pick 10 horses from those listed and add those to your stable.

You will then win points every time any of your stable wins a qualifying race.

With bonus points for the big races of the season.

The first monthly bonus prize will be awarded to the top scoring stable between 15th November and 30th November.

To win that first bonus prize you probably will need to have the winner of this weekends Paddy Power Gold Cup and the winner of the Hennessy Gold Cup Chase at the end of the month.

So maybe have a think about the likely winners of these 2 races to get your entry off to a good start.

http://totesport.com

Here is the full list of bonus races…

RACE COURSE & DATE

Paddy Power Gold Cup; Cheltenham, 16 November 2013
Hennessy Gold Cup Chase; Newbury, 30 November 2013
International Hurdle; Cheltenham, 16 December 2013
William Hill King George VI Chase; Kempton Park, 26 December 2013
Irish Champion Hurdle; Leopardstown, 26 January 2014
Irish Hennessy Gold Cup; Leopardstown, 09 February 2014
Racing Post Arkle; Cheltenham, 11 March 2014
Stan James Champion Hurdle; Cheltenham, 11 March 2014
Sportingbet.com Queen Mother Champion Chase; Cheltenham, 12 March 2014
RSA Chase; Cheltenham, 12 March 2014
Ladbrokes World Hurdle;Cheltenham, 13 March 2014
Ryanair Chase ; Cheltenham, 13 March 2014
Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup; Cheltenham, 14 March 2014
Aintree Hurdle; Aintree, 05 April 2014
Crabbie's Grand National; Aintree, 05 April 2014

All the above dates are subject to confirmation of the 2013/2014 racing calendar.

http://totesport.com

Lay Debutants

13:20:00 Sedgefield 3 Clues And Arrows
14:30:00 Lingfield 6 Sirrah Star (IRE)
16:05:00 Lingfield 4 Greatday Allweek (IRE)
16:15:00 Wolverhampton 4 Alba Verde
16:15:00 Wolverhampton 1 Dreese (IRE)
16:15:00 Wolverhampton 3 Techtycoon

Lay Handicap

12:40:00 Huntingdon 3 Boss In Boots (IRE)

Today's Selection

1.30 Lingfield Bit Of A Clown – eachway bet – 8/1 Bet Victor, Bet 365, Sporting Bet

Referee Bias Football Profits

We finish of our week of Betting Insiders features with an article from Jakub Gawel who is one of the Betting Insiders football betting and trading correspondants and who shares systems and strategies in the Betting Insiders report every month.

Here's Jakub…

This month I shared my research into the influence referees can have on the outcome of football games and detailed stats that demonstrate that some refs favour certain teams.

These biases may be unintentional and let's assume they are but nevertheless they exist and we can profit from them.

Today I'm going to share one particular bias that I have uncovered which featured in my Betting Insiders article this month.

Human factor – If you think about football refereeing as a job, it seems to be a very lonely one, often being abused verbally and even physically at times by players, managers and fans.

At the end of the day, a ref is a human being who has feelings, likes and dislikes. The ref should always remain fair and unbiased but is it safe to say, that even they will have their most/least favourite clubs/stadiums.

This quote was taken from one of the interviews with professional refs, which were supposed to promote this choice of career.

After reading this statement, I checked the League stats for Everton when they played under Marriner.

According to Andre Marriner, 38, who joined the elite list of Premier League refs in 2004, the rewards are manifest.

‘For me there’s nothing better than being a referee,’ he says. ‘I was at Everton the other day, one of my favourite grounds, and the atmosphere was amazing.

Running out of the tunnel, the sound of the crowd, the compactness of it all, it makes the hairs stand up on the back of the neck and there is nowhere else I feel more alive.’

On checking the stats I found that Everton lost only 4 out of their 21 matches under Marriner, 15 of those took place at Goodison Park (a bit many you would think) and Everton lost only 2 (against Newcastle and Blackburn).

But nothing interesting in terms of penalty and red card favour.

However, it’s noticeable that the Toffees were on average booked less often than their opposition.

But looking at my stats, Mr Marriner is the ‘luckiest’ match official for the team from the blue half of Liverpool.

Looking at Everton and other refs’ stats, there are some match officials who aren’t very ‘lucky’ for the Toffees, for example Martin Atkinson (19 Premier matches and only 4 wins for Everton) or Mike Jones (1 win in 10 matches).

Whether it’s just a fluke or a strong trend, it can’t be ignored when it comes to betting or trading.

This is just one trend that I uncovered, but there are a whole host of factors effected by the allocated referee.

Have you ever heard a manager or pundit state that bad penalty decisions even themselves over the course of a season?

My penalties league table strongly suggests otherwise. Some high profile teams have many more penalties awarded for them than against.

And for some of the less glamourous Premier League teams it unfortunately doesnt come close to evening out.

The influence of the referee on a game is a huge factor that you should consider in your betting and one that is under-utilised by the majority, which means value for us.

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Today's Selection courtesy of Betting Insiders

Font 1730 Aikideau (BetV 2/1, Gen 7/4)

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