Tag Archives: best bet

Free TV Racing Tips

This week we have Saturday racing analysis and tips again from Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders.

Before I hand over to Nick who has 9 free TV racing tips I just want to mention a service that has a discount offer that expires at the end of May which is midnight tonight.

Hawkeye Tips is a selective flat betting service that has had 11 selections this month with winners at 14/1, 11/1, 10/1 and 9/1 (advised prices).

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The discount price is £29.99 for 3 months or £99.99 for a year. These go up to £29.99 per month and £179.99 per year from tonight.

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Over to Nick…

Last weekend we managed to pick out a couple of winners in Hot Streak and Slip Sliding Away and two placed horses in Kingsgate Native and Perfect Blessings. Unfortunately with all the rain that fell and the large number of withdrawals we were hit by some large reductions. This weekend I have picked out the best bets from across the cards at Chester, Haydock and York.

The Class 2 Handicap over 7f at Chester (3.05pm) looks a decent race and features a fair number of previous course winners.

Purcell was disappointing in the Victoria Cup when finishing well down the field but I expect him to bounce back here with the tight turns of the Roodee likely to suit and a plum draw in stall 2.

Purcell’s trainer, Andrew Balding, had 3 winners from 7 runners at the May meeting and has saddled 13 winners at the course in the last 2 years.

In the last 5 years his handicappers have won 14 races at the course (23% strike rate) and show a level stakes profit of 24pts. I am also happy to put up Deauville Prince as an each-way selection at 16/1 as he has every chance on his earlier form.

Rated 105 back in February after creditable performances in Group 3 races at Meydan and Longchamp, he races here off 100 with Jenny Powell taking off another 7lbs.

If he can get across from stall 5 he could well be leading around the home turn and, as he stays a mile, could still be there to fight out the finish.

Later on the card Andrew Balding runs Storm Force Ten in the 1m 4f Class 4 handicap. A winner at the May meeting he re-opposes the horse he beat by a head that day in Captain Morley.

He is 1lb worse off for a head victory but he has in-form jockey Oisin Murphy on board who takes off 3lb.

Captain Morley had a poor draw that day and ran well to get so close to the eventual winner. I think there is nothing to choose between the pair so I am happy to back both @9/2.

Over at York, the Listed 1m 6f race looks a fascinating contest. I do like the look of Alan King’s First Mohican but I would want better than the currently available 9/2 before getting involved.

Instead, two who can go well at an each-way price are top weight Renew and Shwaiman.

The latter ran well to finish 6th in the Chester Cup from stall 18 and could potentially be the biggest improver in the field.

Renew has a Listed victory at the back end of last season on his CV and was a creditable 4th in the Group 2 Jockey Club Stakes last time out, with winner Gospel Choir franking that form nicely.

Staying at York, the 5f Class 2 BetBright Trophy Handicap looks hugely competitive and it is difficult to rule out any of the runners with certainty.

Richard Fahey’s Alben Star is currently favourite but it should be noted that he has raced predominantly over 6f and his sole win over the minimum trip was on his racecourse debut.

His trainer also saddles El Viento who is back down to his last winning mark of 91 and gets further respite with a 5lb claimer on board.

Richard Fahey has said he does not think El Viento is an outsider and there is not much between his two runners.

With a nice high draw, a return to form would see him outrun his odds of 40/1.

At the other end of the market, Monsieur Joe is an out and out 5f specialist and has won 9 times at the distance. He won’t mind any ground condition having won on good to firm, soft and polytrack. He’s up 5lb for his latest win but looks in good form and should run another big race.

If Garswood runs anywhere close to his official rating he will win the Group 3 Timeform Jury Stakes at Haydock.

His seasonal reappearance effort casts enough doubt for me to look elsewhere and I think Breton Rock has as good a chance as any.

The C&D winner is 6 from 8 over 6f and 7f when racing on good to soft or worse. At 4 years old he is open to improvement and I will be hoping for plenty of cut in the ground having backed him @7/1.


Chester 3.05pm: Purcell @4/1 and Deauville Prince @16/1 each-way (1/4 odds, 3 places Paddy Power)

Chester 5.15pm: Storm Force Ten @9/2 and Captain Morley @9/2

York 2.20pm: Renew @12/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 3places Bet365) and Shwaiman @18/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 3places BetVictor)

York 2.50: Monsiuer Joe @11/1 and El Viento @40/1 (1/4 odds, 4 places Ladbrokes)

Haydock 2.40: Breton Rock @7/1

More Draw Bias

We have a busy week next week.

I'll be sharing my list of Odds On Jockeys and we also have a three day meeting at Chester.

Chester is a course with a known draw bias and I'll have something to say about that!

So we have that to look forward to 🙂

For today I just want to tell you about a couple of great services.

First up if you didnt register for a free credit at Value Backing Daily, you can still do that here http://valuebacking.com/daily

VB Daily are now mailing out on weekdays to let registered users know where their best bet of the day is running and on day two of doing this their best bet won at 20/1 early odds, 16/1 SP.

The other service I want to mention is a very professional and profitable tipping service that only bets in top quality races.

You amy have seen a mail on this yesterday, but if you missed it there is a half price offer on Cleeve Racing when you sign up for their flat service.

Click Here to get that.


Today's Selection

Chepstow 3.25 West Coast Dream – eachway bet – 11/2 Sky Bet

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Today's Selection

2.20 Southwell Raging Bear – win bet – 6/1 Bet Victor

Claiming Profits

As you read this I'm pitching a tent somewhere in Wales for a 2 week break with my 2 teenage daughters.

To keep you entertained while I'm away I've put together a series of articles that I hope you will find informative and that will help you make your betting a little more profitable.

This week I'm going to be looking at various race types and the types of horses that win them.

We start off at the bottom with Claiming Races

A claiming race is a race where a horse may be claimed for a fee of at least £2000 whether the horse wins or not, a maximum claiming price is also set for the race and horses which are offered below that price will carry less weight than a more expensive rival.

In effect the trainer is self-handicapping his own horse and can increase its chance of winning; in theory the lower the weight a trainer allocates his horse the more chance it will have of winning.

These races have an unfair reputation as poor betting mediums as they are usually contested by low grade horses.

Although that is generally true for younger horses, the reality is that the 4yo plus races can offer some of the best betting opportunities around.

Most of the runners are fully exposed and often entered in at an advantageous weight and statistically they are one of the most reliable races to follow.

A trainer will enter a horse in a claimer for basically one of two reasons, the horse is poorly handicapped or the trainer wishes to get rid of the horse.

You should therefore be wary of runners who have had less than half a dozen runs and have been dropped into a claimer, the chances are the trainer has realised the horse has limited ability and has lost faith in him.

Older horses who have lost some of their ability and are now unlikely to win a handicap are often dropped into claimers and Dandy Nicholls is probably the best exponent of this and how best to allocate an appropriate weight for his runners.

In fact if you look at the figures over the long term you could just back all his runners in Claimers and make a level stake profit. But it would have been a bumpy ride with some years much better than others.

When betting in Claimers it's best to concentrate on 4 year old and older horses. Apply that rule to Dandy and the profits increase.

Weight is vital in these races and just under half of all Claimers are won by the top two in the weights and well over 80% of all winners come from a runner from the top six in the weights.

It would appear that you can’t make a silk purse out of a sow’s ear and if a horse lacks ability it will struggle to win no matter how low a weight it carries.

The strike rate is pitifully poor at the lowest weights and gradually rises with a pleasing symmetry for runners carrying 105lb or less all the way up to 140lb (10 stones) where the strike rate is 23% and we would really only recommend backing any horse carrying less than 8-7 under exceptional circumstances.

The optimum weight would appear to be 131 -140lb (9-5 to 10 stone) and if a runner within that weight range is also one of the top two in the weights then it should be given serious consideration.

Class droppers also have a good record in these low class races and the bigger the drop in class, then statistically, the better the chance of winning.

Even in this low grade of racing it is important that a horse has shown that it has a winning mentality, a horse with a win to its name is far more likely to win than a maiden and if it has a good run to its name from its previous three runs then statistically the horse is more likely to win.

Fillies, Mares and Colts also have an inferior record.

My thanks go to the Betting Insiders Club whose Race Classifications Report supplied a lot of the data for the above – Find out more about the Betting Insiders Club at http://bettinginsiders.com

Todays Selection courtesy of Betting Insiders Club

Simple Magic (1830 Wind) 8/1 each-way Paddy Power

Went off 3rd favourite on debut in 5f Ascot maiden in May but faded to finish 7th of nine.

John Gosden’s juveniles have a track record of improving for their debut run and this filly has a decent pedigree and it will be no surprise if doing much better as she gains experience.

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