Tag Archives: better chance

Strike Rate Vs Odds

Today we have a guest post from Malcolm Pett of http://greyhorsebot.com

As you are probably well aware making money from gambling is about 2 things…
Strike rate and Average winning odds.

As strike rate goes up average winning odds can come down.

You tend to end up with two choices.

Low strike rate but high odds winners. This probably represents the real value end of the scale where you are picking runners that most people think have very little chance of winning.

Most of the time they are correct but every so often one comes in…

And normally at a very good price.

The strike rate of these systems is generally between 10 and 20%.

If you run a system like this then it’s probably better to use Betfair because the odds on outsiders can often be far better than you will find at the bookies.

Look out for long losing runs because these normally spell disaster for the un-aware punter.

Then we have the high strike rate but low odds end of the spectrum.

Here you are likely to be on the first or second favourite and value is going to be a real issue.

Strike rate should be in the high 30’s but even better if you can get to 40% or more.

Keeping an eye on your average winning odds is going to be critical and you will probably have to watch the exchanges and the bookies or even use a BOG bookie to get the best prices.

Your job here will probably be to match or beat SP as often as you can.

The perfect scenario would be somewhere in between the two but it is unlikely you will find one system that will have a reasonable strike rate with value bets.

Probably the best way to achieve this would be to use “Nano” systems.

On their own these types of systems have very few selections but tend to have strike rates of 20% or more.

Combining a number of them together means you have a better chance of getting a reasonable strike rate and achieving value.

It does mean you have more systems to follow but the long term profit could be worth the effort.

Over at the Grey Horse Bot website we test all these ideas.

At the moment we have a couple of tests looking to achieve strike rates of 40% and 50%.

As already discussed you will find the prices on the winners can be quite short but it can be surprising when you get the odd higher priced winner.

We are also running long term tests on system that have a much lower strike rate.
And you can see very clearly from the results that these types of systems have long losing runs and often only get into profit because of big priced winning selections.

When you decide on what type of system(s) to follow you have to ask yourself can you take the losing runs or are you prepared to look for the best price.

Otherwise a bunch of “Nano” systems may be the best thing for you.

Thank you as always for reading I really appreciate it.

Malcolm

Malcom Pett is the creator of the Grey Horse Bot http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

6.45 Kempton Gibeon – win bet – 7/2 Bet 365

Creating Betting Systems

Today we have a regular weekly catch up with Malcolm Pett of http://greyhorsebot.com

Betting systems really fascinate me especially horse racing ones.

It’s probably the main reason I have been creating them for over 12 years.

There are plenty of ideas about how to find winners (or losers) and creating systems is not always the most popular solution.

Many people believe the only way to actually pick a horse to follow in a race is to judge it against every other runner. Look for reasons why one selection has a better chance than all the others.

Although I do agree with this idea it’s not an easy thing to do and those that are most successful at it have spent a lot of time analyzing races and honing their skills.

Systems still take time to research, create and test but once you find something that appears profitable it can become a lot easier and quicker to get your daily selections.

And as I prefer automation it stands to reason this will be my favourite way of finding winners.

Anyway I thought over the next 3 articles I would give you an insight into how this “nerds” brain works (hmm not to sure you want to know) when he is trying to develop a system.

The first thing you are going to need is results.

There are plenty of sites about which allow you to analyse past data to see if you can find a way of picking winners.

Even our Grey Horse Bot members have access to our own growing archive of 230,000 + runs.

I have probably mentioned this before (I tend to repeat myself) that you must remember when you use past data it may contain information that you wouldn’t have known about until either in-play or after the event.


I tend to mention “number of runners” as an example.

Until the actual off, we have no way of knowing how many runners actually started the race.

SP and BSP are not available until in-play so you can only use these as a guide to the profitability of a system.

Until you actually test the system you will have no idea if you can actually get anywhere near to the profit you were expecting.

One of the questions I tend to get a lot is 
“Where do you start? How do you come up with the ideas for research?”

It’s a good question…

I tend to have 3 main ways of finding an idea.

Other peoples ideas.
Things I have noticed
Rating systems.


Other peoples ideas

Nope I don’t mean steal someone else’s system. 

What interest me is that sometimes in a forum, blog post, article or just during a conversation someone may mention a small triaval fact like…

“Beaten favourites do well when…”

Or

“Have you ever looked at 2 year olds on a AW running for the first time”

Or

“I have heard 4th LTO doing really well at this course….”

You get the idea.

I normally write these ideas down and check them out later.

Normally you end up finding out that there isn’t any profit in the idea or that there was just a trend that someone may have noticed that didn’t last long.

In next weeks article I will look at the other 2 points and

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm
“The Nerd”

Find out more about the Greyhorse Bot at http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

6.40 Yarmouth Authorized Too – win bet – 15/8 Bet 365, Paddy Power

Word from the Nerd

This weeks article from Malcolm Pett of http://greyhorsebot.com sheds some light on the topic of value…

People are always talking about value when it comes to horse racing.

But for the average punter in the street it’s a bit of a mystery.

It sounds like one of those weird things that all the experts like to talk about among themselves, while keeping everyone else in the dark about what it actually is.

Well let’s see if we can shed light on the subject.

The obvious explanation for value is:

“A horse’s real chance of winning is better than the odds reflect.”

So a horse may have a current price of 4/1 but according to those in the know it should be 3/1.

All things being equal if you placed a bet on every horse where you found this discrepancy you should make a profit because the horse should win more often than the odds reflect.

But this is where for the average punter the problem lies.

How do you tell if a horse’s current price represents value?

Well that’s where the whole thing gets complicated.

It is really based around opinions and peoples different way’s of deciding if a horse has a better chance of winning, than the general view.

Most people try to work it out early so they can take a better price before the rest of the markets catch on.

Sometimes you can even see a difference between bookies and Betfair (which most people believe to represent a more accurate view of a horse’s true chance of winning).

But it still doesn’t help if you haven’t got a way of looking at each horse and deciding which one has the best chance of winning.

I always look at it from a system development point of view.

If I create a system that has a 25% strike rate then I need to get average winning odds of at least 4.00 to break even.

But I need better odds than that to make money.

But really that is all a system is…

It identifies horses that traditionally have odds higher (or better value) than the strike rate of the system points towards.

That’s why I always tell people… 

“Although there are lots of different statistics you can watch and monitor it is the strike rate and average winning odds that dictate if a system is profitable or not.”

So once you developed, purchase or find a system that you want to use, your only priority is to find the best price you can for each selection.

At the end of the day you can not control the strike rate of a system unless you “tweak” it (but then it becomes a new system) so your only chance to make profit is to work on the average winning price.

My own personal experience always leads me to Betfair because even after the 5% commission generally the prices are much better especially when you are not on the favourite.

Anyway I hope that goes some way to showing what value is.

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm
“The nerd”

http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

Sandown 7.25 Prince of Stars – win bet – 9/4 Boylesports

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