Tag Archives: better odds

Word from the Nerd

This weeks article from Malcolm Pett of http://greyhorsebot.com sheds some light on the topic of value…

People are always talking about value when it comes to horse racing.

But for the average punter in the street it’s a bit of a mystery.

It sounds like one of those weird things that all the experts like to talk about among themselves, while keeping everyone else in the dark about what it actually is.

Well let’s see if we can shed light on the subject.

The obvious explanation for value is:

“A horse’s real chance of winning is better than the odds reflect.”

So a horse may have a current price of 4/1 but according to those in the know it should be 3/1.

All things being equal if you placed a bet on every horse where you found this discrepancy you should make a profit because the horse should win more often than the odds reflect.

But this is where for the average punter the problem lies.

How do you tell if a horse’s current price represents value?

Well that’s where the whole thing gets complicated.

It is really based around opinions and peoples different way’s of deciding if a horse has a better chance of winning, than the general view.

Most people try to work it out early so they can take a better price before the rest of the markets catch on.

Sometimes you can even see a difference between bookies and Betfair (which most people believe to represent a more accurate view of a horse’s true chance of winning).

But it still doesn’t help if you haven’t got a way of looking at each horse and deciding which one has the best chance of winning.

I always look at it from a system development point of view.

If I create a system that has a 25% strike rate then I need to get average winning odds of at least 4.00 to break even.

But I need better odds than that to make money.

But really that is all a system is…

It identifies horses that traditionally have odds higher (or better value) than the strike rate of the system points towards.

That’s why I always tell people… 

“Although there are lots of different statistics you can watch and monitor it is the strike rate and average winning odds that dictate if a system is profitable or not.”

So once you developed, purchase or find a system that you want to use, your only priority is to find the best price you can for each selection.

At the end of the day you can not control the strike rate of a system unless you “tweak” it (but then it becomes a new system) so your only chance to make profit is to work on the average winning price.

My own personal experience always leads me to Betfair because even after the 5% commission generally the prices are much better especially when you are not on the favourite.

Anyway I hope that goes some way to showing what value is.

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm
“The nerd”

http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

Sandown 7.25 Prince of Stars – win bet – 9/4 Boylesports

Footy and Racing Tips

Today we have the usual football acca from TAPS along with a tip for the TV racing today.

Before we get to those there's a couple of things I want to mention.

First Bet 365 are now going best price guarantee and non runner no bet on all Cheltenham Festival races. So if you are having an ante post Festival bet then check out the Bet 365 price for the safest place to put your money. Click Here Bet 365.

Secondly don't forget your Sky Super 6 entry, you have to be in it to win it and with free entry and better odds than the lotto the £250k prize is achievable – Click Here for Sky Super 6

Football Selections courtesy of TAPS (Click here for a 1 month free trial of their Football & Racing Tips)

Top Rated ‘Best 5 Aways'
(Perm any 3 from 5 plus all 5 = 11 bets)
CHELSEA
ARSENAL
BRENTFORD
HAMILTON
FALKIRK

The best overall odds* for the ‘Best 5 Aways' are available with…
Coral

TV Racing Selection

Doncaster 3.30 Mon Parrain – eachway bet – 14/1 Paddy Power, Bet Victor

Football and Racing Tips

Today we have the usual football acca from TAPS along with a tip for the TV racing today.

Before we get to those there's a couple of things I want to mention.

First Bet 365 are now going best price guarantee and non runner no bet on all Cheltenham Festival races. So if you are having an ante post Festival bet then check out the Bet 365 price for the safest place to put your money. Click Here Bet 365.

Secondly don't forget your Sky Super 6 entry, you have to be in it to win it and with free entry and better odds than the lotto the £250k prize is achievable – Click Here for Sky Super 6

Football Selections courtesy of TAPS (Click here for a 1 month free trial of their Football & Racing Tips)

Top Rated ‘Best 5 Aways'
(Perm any 3 from 5 plus all 5 = 11 bets)

MAN UTD
TOTTENHAM
BIRMINGHAM
ROCHDALE
ABERDEEN

The best overall odds* for the ‘Best 5 Aways' are available with…
VCBet

This will return about £177 for £1 stakes.

TV Racing Selection

Newcastle 2.55 Wyck Hill – eachway bet – 10/1 Bet 365, Bet Victor

Bookie’s Runners

It is common knowledge within the industry that some of the big players struggle to get their money down and often use runners to get on.

One person in particular who has even written in a book about his team of runners was of course Patrick Veitch.

I've just read a very interesting article in this months Smart Sigger by Peter Phillips, about how bookies runners operate.

Peter says…

Within the major book-makers there are whole departments devoted to trying to identify who these runners are and who they're running for.

I spent five years working for a major bookmaker and was often very impressed with the lengths these runners would go to.

I am obviously unable to divulge specific names, but I can say that there where at least 12 successful running teams at any given time in the UK responsible for hundreds of thousands of pounds per year being placed over the counters of the high street bookmaker. Some of these teams would have up to 20 people spreading bets all over a region.

So how do these teams operate?

Well it seems that they have to place bets at relatively low, £25, stakes. And they have to resort to wearing disguises and even disguising their handwriting on their betting slips!

But the most interesting tactic they use is that of the “guise gamble” which is used to trick the bookmakers and frankly to trick the betting public into making bad bets also!

Here's how Peter describes the Guise Gamble…

Once a few hundred pounds has been placed on a runner, the bookmaker will become alerted to this horse and consequently cut its price in the market.

The runners then allow a period of time for the mug punters to start following the money, and as a consequence the price on the horse that they really want to back is often pushed out to better odds.

They then drive to a different county and using the same technique of small bets spread over many betting shops, they're able to snatch the bigger price and as a consequence have their required margins over the bookmakers.

So essentially they start a fake gamble on a horse they are not interested in, knowing that punters like to get involved in a big gamble.

And that fake gamble will cause all the other prices to increase which will give more value on the real selection.

Devious stuff, hey!

You can get this months Smart Sigger magazine for free here – Click Here.

Today's Selection courtesy of Pure Racing

15.10 Southwell – The Lock Master – win bet – 5/2 Paddy Power, Bet Victor, Sky Bet

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