Tag Archives: better performance

Weekend Racing Tips

Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders (https://dailypunt.com/nickhardman) keeps sending winners our way and this week he looks at today's Doncaster card and tomorrows Aintree feature…

Weekend Racing Tips

Our mud-larks ran well at Ascot last weekend with Madame Chiang being the highlight winning at 12/1.  Betfair backers would have been nicely rewarded with an SP of 18.

Not a lot of action this Friday, but I want to highlight the performance of Luca Cumani at Doncaster this season and he has a number of runners this afternoon.

We will also be taking a look at the Old Roan Chase from Aintree that takes centre stage on Saturday.

Luca Cumani is having a solid season and one track where he has done particularly well is Doncaster.  Here are his statistics at the Yorkshire course this season to date:

Runs: 21

Wins: 8

Strike rate (% win): 38%

Strike rate (% place): 62%

Profit to level £1 stakes: £13.51

On Friday he runs:

1.50pm Dreamlike

3.30pm Sleeper King @25/1 (e/w ¼ odds, 5 places)

4.05pm Norway Cross @6/1

4.40pm Kleo @5/1

Dreamlike is a 2yo and Cumani has not had a 2yo winner at the course in the last 5 seasons (0-11). 

I would not be overly concerned by that statistic as he has only had the two 2yo runners up at Doncaster this season.

Overall his juveniles are 7-34 this year at a highly respectable strike rate of 21%. 

Dreamlike made an encouraging debut and there is likely more to come.  The market could be quite informative of her chances and she could go well at a price. 

Sleeper King has failed to progress from a promising 2yo campaign and he has shown nothing in 4 starts this year (form figures 0000).  However, this is his first run for Cumani having previously been with Kevin Ryan.  Caution is advised if you decide to back him. 

Norway Cross is interesting up in trip having won at Windsor last time out and Kleo is still unexposed after two wins this season and a LTO fourth in a Listed race at Yarmouth in September.  These two appear to have the best chances of the quartet.

The jumps season is starting to gather momentum and this Saturday sees the Old Roan Chase at Aintree. 

This year’s renewal looks wide open and a case can be made for many including current favourite Uxizandre, Module, Rajdhani Express and last year’s winner Conquisto. 

At the prices I think there is a bit of value in Conquisto to retain his crown if the ground stays good. 

A lot of the higher rated horses in this race will have other targets such as the Paddy Power Gold Cup and the Cheltenham festival whereas this looks like Conquisto’s main target. 

He is 4lbs lower than when winning this last year and I think he could well have been laid out for this. 

As an each-way alternative then Astracad could outrun his price, especially as he seems to save some of his better performances for Aintree (including a decent 2nd in this last year). 

In 2013 he ran in a 2 ½ mile handicap chase at the Cheltenham October meeting a week before lining up for this.  He has followed exactly the same path this year and with the Twiston-Davies horses running well he can give each-way backers a decent run for their money. 

If the rain arrives and there is a change in the going to soft then Wishfull Thinking would have to enter calculations.  His last 3 wins have come on heavy, soft and soft going.  He is rated 162 but he won twice off this mark last season.

Saturday Aintree 3.00pm

Conquisto @7/1 (if the ground remains good)

Each-way alternatives: Astracad @14/1 & Wishfull Thinking @14/1 (soft or worse) 

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Tongue Tie Horse Racing System

Before I get to today's research I should mention that Ross Turner is giving away some systems today, that you might want to go and get before you read on – Click Here.

There are a number of tools available to the race horse trainer to help his charge perform at it's best.

But generally when a horse uses this extra help it is considered a negative factor and the results show this to be the case.

The overall numbers for horses wearing a tongue tie for the first time are pretty bleak.

From over 19,000 qualifiers there have been just 1200 winners and the strike rate is 6.48% and the return on investment is a minus 43%.

Horses to lay maybe?

But I guess there are two types of trainers.

Those that are clutching at straws and who will try anything to get a better performance out of their slow horse.

And those that can correctly diagnose a tongue problem and only use them when they know it will make a difference.

Tongue Tie Horse Racing System

What I've done is to create a system in Horseracebase that selects horses that are wearing a tongue tie for the first time who are trained by a trainer who historically has had a greater than 10% strike rate with first time tongue ties and have a greater than 10% ROI with the same.

And who have had more than 25 qualifiers previously.

The historic results are…

Runs = 541
Wins = 77
Strike Rate = 14.23%
Profit at iSP = 268.46
Return on Investment = 49.62%

So I don't know if this will stand up going forward, but I will track it for a few months before I decide whether to invest in the selections.

Here are the rules I have…

Tongue Tie Horse Racing  System Rules

Today's Selection

2.40 Kempton Divine Rule – eachway bet – 12/1 Bet Victor

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