Tag Archives: betting career

Free Value Backing Book

Value Backing Today there is an opportunity to read Carl Nicholson's Value Backing book for free.

This book tells the story of Carl's betting career from an interest at uni to working with the Daily Racing Form in the USA.

It then follows that with Carl's tips and advice for finding value bets for yourself.

It's a quick and easy read and will give you some food for thought.

The paperback version of the book sells for £9.67 and the Kindle version sells for £7.70.

But this week you can get the Kindle version for free.

Amazon provide free Kindle readers for PCs & Macs as well as Ipads, tablets and lots of smart phones.

So you don't need a Kindle to read this book.

The book itself is rated 4 stars by the Amazon reviews and here is the blurb from the back cover.

The secret to winning money from horse racing is to find value bets. You may know this from racing newspaper columns like the Racing Post Pricewise.

Carl Nicholson is the brains behind the Value Backing horse racing tipping service and in this his first book he tells the story of how he learned his trade from his early days as an intern at the Daily Racing Form whilst studying at Harvard. Right up to today and his horse racing tipping service.

The second part of the book details the methods that Carl uses to find the value bets that make up his service and which have earned him a reputation for big priced winners.

To download your copy Click Here

Today's Selection

4.45 Worcester Royal Peak – win bet – 2/1 Bet Victor, Sky Bet

Scoring For Profit – Free Access

Today I have details of changes to the Scoring For Profit football laying service.

And you can get 6 weeks free access (No credit cards or Paypal required)

You may know the story of Scoring For Profit and Gary Fonzy, but to recap…

Gary started off his betting career arbing between bookies football coupons and Betfair.

But when he tried to scale up his betting he found that he couldnt make enough profit from his coupons method.

It was then that he created the Scoring For Profit system that involved laying in the football correct score markets.

For the new season Gary has now added Both Team To Score bets to his method and to demonstrate the profitability he is offering 6 weeks free access to the service.

To get involved just head over to http://scoringforprofit.com enter your name and email address, click the button and you're in 🙂

I've just had a look and there are no bets today but there will be tomorrow.

http://scoringforprofit.com

By the way yesterdays winner was from the Handicap Debutants System.

Today's Selection

3.20 Newbury Statutory – win bet – 2/1 Bet 365, Bet Victor

Value Betting System

I have been talking recently to a guy who started his betting career on a serious basis a few years ago. And by serious I mean he had to live off of the money he won.

He told me about the method that he used to find his value bets, which required no form study, and essentially was just comparing prices between bookmakers and Betfair.

This is a method I've heard about before and I've now done a bit of research for this article.

Basically the theory goes something like this…

1. Betfair odds represent the true chance of a horse winning (Wisdom of Crowds etc)

2. If you can get better odds from a bookmaker than the Betfair odds you have value.

3. When you find such a bet you either back with the bookie and lay off at Betfair for a guaranteed profit or just back the horse with the bookie because it is a value bet and you will win in the long run.

So I'm sure that has raised two questions in your mind, how profitable is it and how hard is it to find the selections.

Let's start with finding the selections, basically all this requires is to scan though the cards at Oddschecker looking for horses that have a bigger bookies price than the Betfair price.

Then clicking through to Betfair to see if you can lay the selection at shorter odds than the bookie price. If you can then place the bet with the bookie and either lay it or not at Betfair depending on which strategy you are using.

While looking for some data to confirm that this is still a profitable strategy I came across a tool that will find the bets for you and this tool has a results page showing results going back three years. Here's a screenshot for 2012.

Racing Synergy results

You can click here to get the full breakdown on Bet Synergy.

If you've used this method, this software or anything similar do let me know in the comments.

Today's Selection

Southwell 4.05 Burgoyne – win bet – 2/1 Bet365

Pro Punter Laurence Lambourn

I've just been reading an interview with pro punter Laurence Lambourn so I thought I'd share the highlights with you.

Laurence works out his own idea of what the price of the contenders in a race should be.

He then looks to bet at 30% over his idea of the true odds.

Working like this allows a profit margin but also allows a percentage to cover any errors or unknowns in the calculation of the value odds in the first place.

For readers who don't know where to start with creating an odds line I'll gather up some resources for another day.

Back to Laurence.

When asked about the mistakes he made in the early days of his betting career, he says…

“…being swayed by press hype on horses, also following prices down.”

This is a key factor for betting success. I know people who consider themselves professional who are still swayed by a heavily backed horse or a comment from an expert on the racing channels.

The thing is the crowd or the expert may be onto something but once everybody is onto something then the value is gone. So if you only bet on horses that have been gambled on you will lose over the long term!

If you can get on before the gamble begins then that's a different matter.

Laurence says…

“Remember it's all about the prices!”

All in all I didn't glean a whole lot of info from this interview but the points I have highlighted above are the key to any betting career. And are recurring themes when talking to successful punters.

So the key reminders today are…

Determine your own idea of a value price and don't be swayed by the public or pundits.

And any strategy can be a winner if you bet at value odds.

All quotes are from “The Thoughts and Secrets of Successful Punters

Today's Selection courtesy of Value Backing

4.10 Yarmouth Fulney 1pt win @ 15`2 William Hill BOG

 

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