Tag Archives: Builder

Favourites That Win

Today we have our regular weekly column from Malcolm Pett of GreyHorse Bot.

You can try the Grey Horse Bot including the systems creator for just £17, go to http://greyhorsebot.com

Here's Malcolm…

Favourites That Win

As you are probably already know the chances of a favourite winning a race is around 34%.

That figure can be influenced by other factors like race type and price and can drop to around 27% or rise to over 50%.

So why would I mention favourites?

We know there is no value in following them.

So what about if we look elsewhere?

What’s the win averages of the other runners?

2nd priced favourits win 20% of the time
3rd priced favourits win 14% of the time
3rd priced favourits win 10% of the time

Again this is based around all race types and all prices.

This means that nearly 80% of all winning horses come from one of the top 4 priced runners in a race.


”Yeah I know all this” I hear you say…

In my last Daily punt article I talked about what I call “Nano” systems.

This is where you look for specific types of races where you may be able to find profit.

So here is another example you may want to check out.

Using the SPB System Builder I found a trend based around 6 year old horses in class 6 running at Southwell.

If they have won at Southwell before at the exact (exact) distance they are running at again and they are favourite…then they have won 54 of the last 100 (qualifying) races resulting in a BSP profit of 37.46 points.

The system also appears to work at Kempton and Wolves but not to the same extent as it seems to at Southwell.

So although blindly following favourites is not a profitable pastime there are places you can find that appear to show a return.

Finding high strike profitable trends is interesting but as you can see you have to be pretty specific about the runners you choose.

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm
The Grey Horse Bot.

http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

2.20 Yarmouth Spiriting – win bet – 9/4 Bet 365, Paddy Power

Nano Betting Systems

Today we have an article from Malcolm Pett of http://greyhorsebot.com.

“Don’t put all your betting eggs in one basket.” The art of “nano” systems.

I like many people who have betting and creating systems for many years believe in creating very specific systems that find trends based on very specific criteria.

I call them “nano” systems.

I have 3 main criteria when creating a nano system.

It is created using one of the five race types (Flat, Hurdle, Chase, All Weather or national hunt flat).

It uses specific criteria like age group or form element or even a particular runner type.


It will generally be looking at 30 or less selections a month sometimes as little as 10 or less.

Although there is no real criteria on the amount of points a nano system may make a month it is generally accepted that's this will probably be 10 or less points per month.

There are two main reasons why you may want to consider creating nano betting systems.

The first is it allows you to find niches within a sport like horse racing that has possibly been over looked and so allows you select runners that either offer better value or that allow you to win more often than statistically you should.

Secondly it allows you to build up a portfolio of targeted systems that combined could allow you to make more profit than may have be earned by using just one system.

Like the old saying “Don’t put all your eggs in one basket”

But let’s have a look at an example.

One of the great things about Nano type systems is that you can be so specific that you can even just choose one day of a week to base your system around.

Now I know not everyone will agree that days of the week should matter to a system and it’s not always the case. But in this instance I did find a system that over the last 16 months has produced a profit.

Of course it could be a trend and it has had some losing months but it has still produced a profit since I first introduced it on the 22/02/2014.

And even last month made 9.43 points

In this case the system used our “in house” rating system (available to users) and used a number of race and form elements to drill down to find this system.

In fact the tool I used (the SPB system builder) has improved so much since I created the system that it is probably worth looking at it again.

Another system I have just introduced is based around French horses doing well in particular UK races.

I haven’t worked out why they seem to do so well but there is an apparent trend at the moment in certain races.

One other trend I have just noticed is in races where there are just three runners.

I found a profit of 76.473 points could have been made over the last 69 races at BSP (after commission) on certain race types.

I have actually put together a guide for you so you can see exactly how to find the selections.

Find out more here. 3 Runner System

This one actually breaks my first rule but it was spotted accidentally when I was researching statistics for number of runners in a race for a client.

This is just 3 examples of the type of systems you can come up when looking for a more targeted system.

In the next article I will have some more examples of “Nano” systems and some that you can follow automatically.

Thank you for reading I really appreciate it.

Malcolm
Grey Horse Bot.

http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

9.15 Kempton Loraine – eachway bet – 13/2 Bet 365

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Today's Selection

2.20 Southwell Raging Bear – win bet – 6/1 Bet Victor

Horse Race Base Help

We had a few questions in asking how to get HorseRace Base to find horses that are running in a handicap for the first time, as per the research we published last week.

So today I'm just going to show the settings I use to find 1st time handicap horses.

So Step 1 is go to the System Builder in Horse Race Base.

In the General Race Data tick “Handicap or Non Handicap”.

Horse Race Base

Click to Enlarge

Then in the Horse Data section select “H-Runs (H'cap or non)”

Horse Race Base

This section is described as

Horse (Handicap+non) indicates previous form in the same race type as today (type being handicap or non-handicap). It is important to note the test is strictly defined to handicap or non-handicap depending on that days race type.

When you click through to the next screen these two factors together work as follows.

If you select Handicaps as I have below then the “H-Runs (H'cap or non)” factor looks for horses with runs in Handicaps.

If you select Non -Handicap then the “H-Runs (H'cap or non)” factor looks for horses with runs in Non-Handicaps.

Because I have set “Handicap or Non Handicap” to Handicap and “H-Runs (H'cap or non)” to zero then the research is looking at horses running in Handicaps today that have no previous runs in a Handicap.

Horse Race Base

 

If you haven't got Horse Race Base you can get free trial access and then can continue using it for a small donation – http://horseracebase.com

Today's Selection courtesy of N.W Racing (I've been very impressed with this service 🙂

4.20 York Homeric – eachway bet – 13/2 Bet Victor, Bet 365, Sky Bet

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