Tag Archives: bunch

Greyhounds: What does it all mean

If you've been following along with the greyhound form and especially if you are new to the dogs you're are bound to have seen something in the race comments that you didnt understand.

So today I'm just going to run through all the standard abbreviations.

A – always
Aw – away
Awk – awkward
B – badly
Blk – baulked
Bmp – bumped
Bnc – bunched
Bnd – bend
Brk – break
Btn – beaten
Chl – challenged
Ck – checked
Ckg – checking
Clr – clear
CmAg – cameagain
Crd – crowded
Crmp – cramped
Dis – distance
Disp – disputed
DNF – did not finish
Drpd – dropped
E – early
EvCH – every chance
F – fast
Fcd – forced
Fd – faded
Fin – finished
Fr – From
Hgh – high
HldOn – held on
Imp – impeded
Jkt – jacket
Jp – jump(ed)
Lcd – lacked
Ld – lead/led
Lm – lame
Ln – line
Lse – loose
Mid – middle
Mod – moderately
Msd – missed
Mzl – muzzle
Nr – near
Nv – never
Outp – outpaced
P – pace(d)
Pkd – pecked
Q – quick
Rec – record
ReRn – re-run
Rls rails/railed
Rn – ran/run
RnIn – run-in
RnUp – run-up
S – slow
Shw – showed
Slp – slipped
Sn – soon
Stb – stumbled
Stk – struck
Stt – start
Styd – stayed
Swv – swerved
T – to
Tbl – trouble
Th'out – throughout
Tp – trap
V – very
W – wide
Wll – well
Wn – won

Strike Rate Vs Odds

Today we have a guest post from Malcolm Pett of http://greyhorsebot.com

As you are probably well aware making money from gambling is about 2 things…
Strike rate and Average winning odds.

As strike rate goes up average winning odds can come down.

You tend to end up with two choices.

Low strike rate but high odds winners. This probably represents the real value end of the scale where you are picking runners that most people think have very little chance of winning.

Most of the time they are correct but every so often one comes in…

And normally at a very good price.

The strike rate of these systems is generally between 10 and 20%.

If you run a system like this then it’s probably better to use Betfair because the odds on outsiders can often be far better than you will find at the bookies.

Look out for long losing runs because these normally spell disaster for the un-aware punter.

Then we have the high strike rate but low odds end of the spectrum.

Here you are likely to be on the first or second favourite and value is going to be a real issue.

Strike rate should be in the high 30’s but even better if you can get to 40% or more.

Keeping an eye on your average winning odds is going to be critical and you will probably have to watch the exchanges and the bookies or even use a BOG bookie to get the best prices.

Your job here will probably be to match or beat SP as often as you can.

The perfect scenario would be somewhere in between the two but it is unlikely you will find one system that will have a reasonable strike rate with value bets.

Probably the best way to achieve this would be to use “Nano” systems.

On their own these types of systems have very few selections but tend to have strike rates of 20% or more.

Combining a number of them together means you have a better chance of getting a reasonable strike rate and achieving value.

It does mean you have more systems to follow but the long term profit could be worth the effort.

Over at the Grey Horse Bot website we test all these ideas.

At the moment we have a couple of tests looking to achieve strike rates of 40% and 50%.

As already discussed you will find the prices on the winners can be quite short but it can be surprising when you get the odd higher priced winner.

We are also running long term tests on system that have a much lower strike rate.
And you can see very clearly from the results that these types of systems have long losing runs and often only get into profit because of big priced winning selections.

When you decide on what type of system(s) to follow you have to ask yourself can you take the losing runs or are you prepared to look for the best price.

Otherwise a bunch of “Nano” systems may be the best thing for you.

Thank you as always for reading I really appreciate it.

Malcolm

Malcom Pett is the creator of the Grey Horse Bot http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

6.45 Kempton Gibeon – win bet – 7/2 Bet 365

Don’t Shoot Trees

Smart Sigger

I've just been reading this months Smart Sigger magazine and they have an interesting article about not back fitting your systems.

The article starts off with an analogy to describe what back fitting is, which tickled me :o)

Here's what the writer, Eddie Lloyd said…

Let's use an analogy. You have an air-rifle and decide to have a go at shooting a tree in the safety of your back garden.

You take the first shot at a target stuck to the tree. You have five shots and they all
get very close to the bullseye. Let’s say you get two hits and three just on the outside. Your system of shooting the rifle works.

Now let’s take another day and you decide to shoot the rifle at the tree but without the target in place. You look at the holes left in the tree and they’re all pretty much bunched together. You then decide because that looked good to now paint your target around those holes but positioning the bullseye so that you now have more holes in the bullseye.

Your system still works but you have changed history by moving the bullseye to fit the holes that are already there.

More seriously Eddie goes onto say that the number one rule for not having a backfitted system is to make sure all rules are logical.

Personally I always smart and lose all confidence in a system when I see a rule that says something like…

Only back if the horse is priced between ‘even money and 5/2' OR ‘between 7/2 and 12/1'

Er so we can back anything between evens and 12/1 but not if it's 11/4 or 3/1!!!

A surprising amount of systems have ridiculous rules like this that have obviously been added to remove some losers from the past results, either deliberately or naively!

Anyway, you can read the full article, which includes a primer on how to create a system, and the full Smart Sigger July edition when you take a free trial of Smart Sigger – Click Here

By the way on an unrelated note, you can still get a £7.99 trial of Hawkeye Tips which is showing a huge 540% Return on Investment for the last 30 days at Race Advisor Proofing – Sign Up Here

Today's Selection

20:40 Carlisle Mrs Warren – win bet – 11/4 Bet 365

Grand National Trial Selection

2.55 Haydock
Grand National Trial
3m4f — Grade 3 H’cap Chase — Heavy

Introduction:

Okay, so first things first, you’re probably wondering who the heck I am. So please allow me to briefly introduce myself – and feel free to skip straight to my preview of this week’s Haydock Grand National Trial if you’re in a rush!

My name is Connor Gallagher. I’m 20 years old, and I’ve been earning a very healthy full-time income from betting on horse racing for the last 4 years. I’ve had a keen interest in racing ever since I was a kid, and had my first bet at around the age of 11. A very different story to many of the so-called “tipsters” I am sure you will agree.

Secondly, you’ll also be glad to hear that I’m not going to insult your intelligence by saying that I’ve made millions from betting. I haven’t. I don’t live in a luxury mansion in the centre of Newmarket, and I don’t claim to have access to any “inside information” either.

My selection process combines trends and statistical analysis with in-depth form study in an aim to identify “value” and unearth regular big-priced winners. I bet mainly in the top-class races – i.e. big handicaps, graded races, and the major meetings such as Cheltenham and Aintree.

Today I wanted to give you a feel for how my new Trends Betting service works, by giving you the lowdown and highlighting the value in the Haydock Grand National Trial. I’ll also be contributing to the Daily Punt website on a more regular basis so if you enjoy this article be sure to stay tuned for more of the same!

If you’re also interested in checking out my full service, I’m currently running a special offer this weekend only where you can sign-up for a full year for a low one-off payment of ONLY £57! But hurry, because places are very limited. You can also grab a FREE copy of my new book by simply visiting TrendsBetting.co.uk – Click Here.

Anyway, let’s get crackin’…

Race Preview:

Silver By Nature

Won this in 2010 and followed-up in great style under top weight in 2011, so has to be respected, but he’s been off the track since finishing well-beaten in that year’s Grand National and it’s hard to say how much ability he retains. He’s 11 years old now, and despite a record that reads F211 on heavy ground at 3 miles and beyond, his form figures after a break are somewhat less impressive and it’s likely this is just a starting point.

Teaforthree

Very lightly-raced for a 9yo, this Welsh National 2nd has a very strong trends profile but is without the assistance of Tony McCoy from the saddle this time. He stays all day and ought to handle conditions well, but I’m not sure whether this flatter track will see him to best effect, although the slight uphill finish should play to his strengths. Another question mark is obviously whether he can reverse form with Monbeg Dude as, despite being 3lbs better off with his Chepstow conqueror today, the winner didn’t jump well at all at Chepstow and was given a perfectly-timed ride by Paul Carberry.

Cannington Brook

A three-time course winner and confirmed mud-lover, this one finished 5th in last year’s Welsh National and has been steadily improving since, resulting in a 16lb rise in the handicap. He rarely runs a bad race, has a strong trends profile and looks sure to run creditably with Tom O’ Brien (3-5) booked to ride. I just don’t think he’ll be quite good enough on the day, and he had a tough race at Ffos Las.
Giles Cross

Last year’s winner ran very well for a long way at Chepstow, jumping soundly in front and was only headed entering the straight. He stopped very quickly that day but was entitled to in such wintery conditions given that he’d been off the track since pulling-up in the Grand National. Of course, he’s 6lbs higher than when beating Neptune Collonges in this last year, but it’s possible he can bounce back today and it’s certainly worth noting that Denis O’ Regan is riding again as surely that’s a hint that he still retains much of his ability. This year’s renewal looks tougher, however.

Monbeg Dude

A quirky and improving young horse that clearly has his own way of doing things and was given a fantastic waiting ride by Paul Carberry in the Welsh National. It may also be worth noting that he was the only hold-up horse to finish within the first 5 at Chepstow – all of the others had raced prominently – and this, coupled with the fact that his jumping left an awful lot to be desired, arguably makes his victory all the more meritorious. This flatter circuit shouldn’t be an issue, and the slight uphill finish should play to his strengths, but the fences are stiffer here and his jumping will have to improve. He boasts a perfect trends profile and Carberry rides again, but he’s never ridden at Haydock before.

Neptune Equester

A course and distance winner last year, this one possesses stamina in abundance and handles all types of going. He’s slightly overexposed in comparison to many of these, and is arguably quite a bit short of top class, but has been campaigned somewhat shrewdly and could be the one to spring a surprise. Danny Cook takes the ride and he’s won on him around here before. Very strong trends profile also.

Viking Blond

Another who probably isn’t quite top class, but is a tough sort that has been running well consistently without winning. He seems to handle all kinds of going, but his better efforts have been on undulating tracks on better ground. That’s a worry, as is the fact he’s French-bred, but most alarmingly his record at beyond 3 miles is 0-4-12.

Rigadin De Beauchene

Improved markedly for the step-up in distance last time – winning Warwick’s Grade 3 Classic Chase – and clearly likes soft ground. He’s still very unexposed for an 8yo, and even further improvement looks likely. He’s another who possesses a fine trends profile, despite being French-bred, and his owner won this with Miko De Beauchene in 2008, who was also subsequently transferred to Venetia Williams. My only worry is that this is a much tougher race than he has contested before, and another step forward is definitely needed. He’ll probably be overbet and doesn’t offer much value in my opinion.

Well Refreshed

An interesting one at the bottom of the weights trained by canny Sussex handler Gary Moore, with 3lb claimer and son Joshua Moore riding. He had the beating of subsequent Grade 3 winner Rigadin De Beauchene two starts ago, on heavy ground, but was receiving a stone in weight that day and has risen 21lbs since. His jumping is another worry and the last 17 winners of this contest had already finished 1st or 2nd in a Class 2. He hasn’t.

Lively Baron

A progressive stayer who looks sure to be better suited to a faster surface, albeit he’s won on soft. He often races in blinkers, but didn’t have them on when beating Major Malarkey at Sandown two runs ago. That’s his best effort to date and, whilst he’s arguably open to further progress and despite his trainer’s good record here, others are readily preferred today.

Triggerman

Very lightly-raced for a Philip Hobbs-trained 11-year-old, he’s extremely versatile and looks well-handicapped. His 3rd in the Welsh National was only his second run back from a long layoff, having previously finished 4th in Sandown’s Bet365 Gold Cup, and it’s possible he’ll come on again for that last run. He’s also dropped another 2lbs in the handicap, with James Best taking off an additional 3lbs, and is weighted to go close. On the other hand, his trainer’s chasers are just 1-16 at the track, so that’s a slight worry.

Conclusion:

Overall a very competitive handicap containing a large number of improving horses taking on their older rivals, including winners of the last three renewals.
Monbeg Dude is undoubtedly the pick of the bunch from a statistical angle and offers decent value, albeit Welsh National runner-up Teaforthree also has sound claims and so too does Triggerman, who finished 3rd at Chepstow and looks extremely well-handicapped based on his form from a couple of seasons ago.

Three-time course winner Cannington Brook obviously excels in these conditions and ought to be respected under Tom O’ Brien, whereas Warwick winner Rigadin De Beauchene faces stiffer opposition today and needed every yard of the 3m5f trip last time out. It’s possible he’ll find this a lot tougher from a 9lb higher mark.

Of the remainder, Neptune Equester has a brilliant trends profile and should be staying on at the finish provided he can remain in touch in this higher grade, and he also looks appealing at the likely odds.

Betting Advice:

Monbeg Dude – 1pt win – 13/2 Totesport, Betfred
Triggerman – 0.5pt win – 12/1 Bet 365, Bet Victor, Coral
Neptune Equester – 0.5pt win – 20/1 Totesport, Betfred

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