Tag Archives: caution

Weekend Racing Tips

Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders (https://dailypunt.com/nickhardman) keeps sending winners our way and this week he looks at today's Doncaster card and tomorrows Aintree feature…

Weekend Racing Tips

Our mud-larks ran well at Ascot last weekend with Madame Chiang being the highlight winning at 12/1.  Betfair backers would have been nicely rewarded with an SP of 18.

Not a lot of action this Friday, but I want to highlight the performance of Luca Cumani at Doncaster this season and he has a number of runners this afternoon.

We will also be taking a look at the Old Roan Chase from Aintree that takes centre stage on Saturday.

Luca Cumani is having a solid season and one track where he has done particularly well is Doncaster.  Here are his statistics at the Yorkshire course this season to date:

Runs: 21

Wins: 8

Strike rate (% win): 38%

Strike rate (% place): 62%

Profit to level £1 stakes: £13.51

On Friday he runs:

1.50pm Dreamlike

3.30pm Sleeper King @25/1 (e/w ¼ odds, 5 places)

4.05pm Norway Cross @6/1

4.40pm Kleo @5/1

Dreamlike is a 2yo and Cumani has not had a 2yo winner at the course in the last 5 seasons (0-11). 

I would not be overly concerned by that statistic as he has only had the two 2yo runners up at Doncaster this season.

Overall his juveniles are 7-34 this year at a highly respectable strike rate of 21%. 

Dreamlike made an encouraging debut and there is likely more to come.  The market could be quite informative of her chances and she could go well at a price. 

Sleeper King has failed to progress from a promising 2yo campaign and he has shown nothing in 4 starts this year (form figures 0000).  However, this is his first run for Cumani having previously been with Kevin Ryan.  Caution is advised if you decide to back him. 

Norway Cross is interesting up in trip having won at Windsor last time out and Kleo is still unexposed after two wins this season and a LTO fourth in a Listed race at Yarmouth in September.  These two appear to have the best chances of the quartet.

The jumps season is starting to gather momentum and this Saturday sees the Old Roan Chase at Aintree. 

This year’s renewal looks wide open and a case can be made for many including current favourite Uxizandre, Module, Rajdhani Express and last year’s winner Conquisto. 

At the prices I think there is a bit of value in Conquisto to retain his crown if the ground stays good. 

A lot of the higher rated horses in this race will have other targets such as the Paddy Power Gold Cup and the Cheltenham festival whereas this looks like Conquisto’s main target. 

He is 4lbs lower than when winning this last year and I think he could well have been laid out for this. 

As an each-way alternative then Astracad could outrun his price, especially as he seems to save some of his better performances for Aintree (including a decent 2nd in this last year). 

In 2013 he ran in a 2 ½ mile handicap chase at the Cheltenham October meeting a week before lining up for this.  He has followed exactly the same path this year and with the Twiston-Davies horses running well he can give each-way backers a decent run for their money. 

If the rain arrives and there is a change in the going to soft then Wishfull Thinking would have to enter calculations.  His last 3 wins have come on heavy, soft and soft going.  He is rated 162 but he won twice off this mark last season.

Saturday Aintree 3.00pm

Conquisto @7/1 (if the ground remains good)

Each-way alternatives: Astracad @14/1 & Wishfull Thinking @14/1 (soft or worse) 

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Royal Ascot Selections – Day 2

Royal Ascot Selections – Day 2

As promised we have another Royal Ascot Selection from Nick Hardman today.

Yesterday the free tips we posted finished 1st at even money and 3rd at 12/1, so hopefully you had a few pennies on those. Nick went on to make 4.4 points across the whole card.

If you want all of Nick's selections today you can find them in the Betting School Insiders Club and if you're not already a member you can join here.

https://dailypunt.com/betinsiders

Today the first race is a tougher challenge…

2.30pm Jersey Stakes

From a betting perspective, Day 2 could not get off to a trickier start than a 7f race of 23 runners. As always, cases can be made for many so I will be using cautionary stakes on this one for sure.

At the head of the market are French Guineas 4th Muwaary @11/2 and Irish Guineas 3rd Mustajeeb @13/2.

Both will go close if they improve on those runs. Of the two I prefer Muwaary solely because John Gosden’s horses are running so well and he is the preference of jockey Paul Hanagan.

Aiden O’Brien has won the last two renewals and has three entered here, but they all need to improve on what they have shown this year to get involved.

However, before writing them off it is worth noting that Ishvana won this for O’Brien @20/1 in 2012 when largely unfancied.

Big Time @16/1 for John Joseph Murphy is interesting on his juvenile form (2nd in a Group 2 and 2nd in a Group 1 after winning his maiden).

He made his reappearance in the Irish Guineas and a mile seemed to stretch his stamina.

He has something to find with Mustajeeb on that running but gets 3lb here on that rival and he may well strip fitter for the run.

The horse that beat Big Time in those Group races was Sudirman. He came up short in Group 1 company after that and was a bit disappointing on his reappearance, managing just 4th in a Listed race.

He is another who will improve for the run but all of his winning has been done over 6f. He does rate a big danger if seeing out the trip and 20/1 is tempting.

Elsewhere, Parbold has become expensive to follow since his 2nd in the Coventry at the Royal Meeting last year. His conqueror last time out was That Is The Spirit who made it 3 from 3 in doing so. He has made all in 2 of those wins (and led from halfway in the other) and he might well be taken on for the lead here.

If that happens it would be no surprise to see Parbold reverse the form with Ryan Moore on board.

All in all a fascinating race and really one to watch rather than getting heavily involved in.

If pushed for a tip I would side with Muwaary @11/2 (I wouldn’t want to go any shorter than that) and Big Time at an each-way price of 16/1 (Bet365 go 4 places but offer just 11/1 on Big Time).

Don’t be surprised to see Sudirman @20/1 and Parbold @18/1 outrun their prices.

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Premier League Football Tips

Today we have a preview of the weekends football action and Premier League football tips from Tipster Warehouse…

Premier League Preview

With the excitement of the FA Cup now firmly behind us we once more focus on the Premier League race this weekend. All of the top four clubs will be looking to capitalise on facing weaker opposition and hope to pull away from the chasing pack. As always seems to be the way in this great league one of more of them is likely to fail in that pursuit and this Saturday I have a feeling that Jose Mourinho and his Chelsea men have the hardest task.

Chelsea play Everton in the early afternoon televised clash and although in previous years their form at the Bridge has been superb they do have an air of vulnerability about them this season. Roberto Martinez has managed to turn his squad of players into an effective but not consistent side and they will need to be at their very best to match the Blues. Although big favourites to win I have a feeling that these sides will nullify each other and a draw will be a fair result.

This would of course open up the top spots for those just behind them in the most exciting of title chases in recent memory. Both Arsenal and Manchester City play in rare 3pm Saturday kick offs and they will be hoping to jump on any mistakes made by Chelsea. The Gunners have what on paper looks to be an easy tie against Sunderland. The form of the Black Cats has improved enormously over recent months as Gus Poyet gets his feet under the table – 3 wins and a draw in the last 5 games is testament to that – but will this be enough to stop the juggernaut that is Arsenal? I suspect not and with Arsene Wenger’s men dispatching lower league opponents with aplomb this season I expect a 3 or 4 goal margin and a stroll for the gunners.

As for City they need Chelsea to lose and Arsenal to fail to pick up all three points if they are to top the table this weekend. With home form that is just truly stunning this season most of us would expect a trouncing for Stoke but I would utter a few words of caution. They are one of only four clubs this season who have managed to keep a clean sheet against City after their scoreless draw back in September and City have failed to register a goal in 180 Premier League minutes now. If I had to predict a result it would still be a heavy loss for Stoke but maybe just maybe they could get something from the game.

The last of the top four Liverpool play on Sunday and have what on paper is an easy match with Swansea. Luis Suarez has now failed to net in three games and with his form as good as it is I suspect that he will punish a club severely very soon. This could be Garry Monk and his not so merry men this weekend. A brace or hat trick from Suarez in a convincing win for the Reds looks likely.

One last match that seems good value for taking candy from the bookies is Crystal Palace against a resurgent and fired up Manchester United. Although in poor form of late I just can’t see Messrs Rooney and Van Persie failing to run riot in South London and rack up a cricket score. Palace are playing better football of late but that is when faced with less tough opposition. United will be too strong for them and I expect a good away win.

Double Tip this weekend

I fancy Manchester clubs both United and City to win convincingly and reap some fine rewards for punters. If you’re feeling a little more adventurous I’d add Arsenal and Liverpool to the mix for a nice little foursome.

Manchester City + Manchester United both to win gives odds of 1.94

Manchester City + Manchester United + Arsenal + Liverpool all 4 to win gives odds of 3.36

To find out more about Tipster Warehouse and to get more free tips Click Here.

Today's Racing Selection courtesy of Betting Insiders

Exeter 4.20 Wilton Milan – win bet – 7/2 bet 365, Bet Victor

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Greyhound Betting System

We had a lot of interest in the greyhound betting angle I published yesterday so today I'll run through the process I used to find the selection.

First off though I want to mention that the winning horse selection came from the free tips service that goes with Mark Foley's Trainer Trends book.

The book is just seven quid and buyers get one months tips for free, check it out here.

Before I run through another greyhound example, I just want to caution against diving in on this one.

If you follow this method yourself you will win, but not every bet wins. I know what it's like when you miss a juicy bet, it's tempting to dive in big on the next one. I'm going to bet the dog in today's example but what I want you to take from it is how to do it yourself.

Greyhound Betting System

So this is what I did yesterday (and everyday).

  1. First off I worked out what seasonal date was 16 weeks in the past. You can do this with a calendar, but what I did was to open a spreadsheet and type in todays date in cell A1. In cell A2 I typed =A1-112. Once I pressed enter A2 now displays a date 16 weeks ago.
  2. I scanned through the cards at the Racing Post until I found a bitch with a season date on or before 14th December. (Sheffield 11.42 Trap 4 Oasis)
  3. I looked to see if it had already shown signs of improvement since it's seasonal break. This particular bitch has been running 4th and 5th, but last time out led for a long way before tiring
  4. I then fired up my BagsBeater software to see how the dogs would be arriving at the 1st bend. Oasis wasnt going to lead, but trap 5 is faster away which gives her some space.
  5. I then went to The Dogs website and searched for her past form to see at what level she has run previously. She has won an A4 in 30.26 back in October. A quick scan of the best times tells me that form would win this race.
Greyhound Form

Click to Enlarge

 

 

The Racing Post forecast price is 6/1, they don't fancy her! If she is back to her best form then she would be a 6/4 shot in this race.

So whether she wins or loses I will be happy with the bet if I can get 6/1.

If you want to know more about greyhound form and methods, tell me in the comments below.

Today's Selections

Sheffield 11.42 Oasis – win bet
Folkestone 4.40 Estedaama – win bet

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