Tag Archives: CHALLENGE CUP

Football and Racing Tips

Today we have our regular football perm from The Alternative Punters Syndicate and a recap of the Saturday tips from Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders.

Football Bets

We managed 3 from 5 last week, hopefully we can do better this week.

You can trial the TAPS service for free for a whole month here – http://dailypunt.com/taps

Top Rated ‘Best 5 Aways'
(Perm any 3 from 5 plus all 5 = 11 bets)

MAN CITY
BRISTOL CITY
MK DONS
HEARTS
FORFAR

The best overall odds* for the ‘Best 5 Aways' are available with…
VCBet

Totepool Challenge Cup

The Totepool Challenge Cup from Ascot is the big handicap of the weekend and William Haggas’ Prince’s Trust is a worthy favourite.  He looks well ahead of his handicap mark but the value in his price has long since evaporated.

American Hope is vying for favouritism and has good Ascot form.  I would give him every chance, but again there is not much juice in his price.

At the prices, the one I like is Bunbury Cup winner Heaven’s Guest. He is very consistent, goes well in big fields and has course form to boot.

He won this race off a mark of 100 last year and is now rated 105.  George Chaloner takes off a useful 3lbs so Heaven’s Guest is effectively just 2lb higher than when successful in this in 2013.

At 12/1 he would be my idea of an each-way bet if you fancy taking on the favourites.

Saturday Ascot 3.50pm – Heavens Guest @12/1 each-way

Trainers To Follow

Hopefully a few of you were on Bronze Angel (14/1) in the Cambridgeshire last weekend after our trends article picked him out along with Velox (2nd) and Big Johnny D (7th) who returned a massive 50/1 for William Hill customers who got 7 places. 

This week we turn our attention to the jumps and highlight three trainers who are literally on fire right now with their National Hunt horses:

It’s always useful to take note of which trainers have their string in top order at the start of the National Hunt season and I have picked out three who have an exceptional strike rate in the last 30 days.  

Trainers To Follow

Charlie Longsdon (last 30 days)

Runs = 11
Wins = 7
Strike rate = 64%
Profit at SP = 13.75

Mrs Dianne Sayer (last 30 days)

Runs = 15
Wins = 7
Strike rate = 47%
Profit at SP = 20.50

Kim Bailey (last 30 days)

Runs = 11
Wins = 7
Strike rate = 64%
Profit at SP = 10.04

At the time of writing they have the following entries on Friday and Saturday:

Friday

Fontwell 3.15pm – Pure Style

Fontwell 5.00pm – Little Chip

Fontwell 5.30pm – Glowinginthedark

Hexham 4.05pm – Bell Weir

Hexham 4.40pm – Sergeant Pink

Hexham 5.10pm – Patsys Castle

Hexham 5.40pm – West End

Saturday

Fontwell 2.50pm – Viking Ridge

Fontwell 3.20pm – Pure Style

Fontwell 3.55pm – Up For An Oscar

The Totepool Challenge Cup from Ascot is the big handicap of the weekend and William Haggas’ Prince’s Trust is a worthy favourite.  He looks well ahead of his handicap mark but the value in his price has long since evaporated. 

American Hope is vying for favouritism and has good Ascot form.  I would give him every chance, but again there is not much juice in his price. 

At the prices, the one I like is Bunbury Cup winner Heaven’s Guest. He is very consistent, goes well in big fields and has course form to boot. 

He won this race off a mark of 100 last year and is now rated 105.  George Chaloner takes off a useful 3lbs so Heaven’s Guest is effectively just 2lb higher than when successful in this in 2013. 

At 12/1 he would be my idea of an each-way bet if you fancy taking on the favourites.

Saturday Ascot 3.50pm – Heavens Guest @12/1 each-way

This year’s renewal of the Arc looks very competitive and you can probably make a decent case for most of the field. 

It certainly looks like a race to watch rather than bet on. 

However, given the global appeal of the race, it is nice to have an interest even if it makes little appeal as serious betting proposition. 

One thing to bear in mind is the importance of the draw.  Essentially you do not want to be too wide coming around a sweeping bend that seems to last forever, before the horses straighten up for home. 

With that in mind I’ll keep it simple and side with a couple of 3yo fillies, the exact types who have done so well in this race in recent years.  

I also want to be in the low half of the draw so I will have to wait and see on that score. 

If the draw is kind I’ll be having a couple of quid each-way on Japan’s Harp Star and France’s Avenir Certain, even if it’s just to add a little spice to the enjoyment of watching Europe’s most prestigious flat race of the year.

Sunday Longchamp 3.30pm – Harp Star @8/1 and Avenir Certain @9/1

Nick Hardman

Betting Insiders

Cheltenham Day Two

Well I thoroughly enjoyed yesterdays racing but walked away a bit poorer.

Paddy Power refunded all my Arkle Chase bets so no loss there.

Of the others I had some good runs for my money but no profit other than my biggest bet on deservedly short priced Quevega.

Cheltenham Day Two

Today I will be backing Sizing Europe (3.20). The even money is gone now, but this horse is a class above the opposition here.

As yesterday we have been allowed to give you Mark Foley's assessment of the first race of the day.

1:30 – NATIONAL HUNT CHASE CHALLENGE CUP 4 MILES.

A typical winner of this race is a 7 or 8yo, who has had at least three races over fences and finished in the first 4 LTO. Last year’s winner was the first outright winning favourite of the race since 1992.
Since the race structure was altered five of the last 9 winners carried 11-6 or 11-7 and all but one of the last ten winners carried between 11-6 and 11-11.

The market also appears to have stabilised in recent years, with the biggest priced winner in the last 4 years being 14/1 shot Poker De Sivola. Being a race for amateur riders it’s important to have a decent jock on your side and the last 3 winning jocks have all been top class amateurs. (Derek O’Connor, Katie Walsh and Sam Waley Cohen.)
The younger runners get an age allowance, but generally it isn’t considered enough for them to win although Tricky Trickster did baulk the trend 3 years ago; the only 6 yo in the race is Four Commanders.
Shortlist:

Blenheim Brook
Lively Baron
Teaforthree
Universal Soldier

All four of the runners shortlisted are running off 11-6, but Teafrothree would be giving the other four shortlisted runners at least 8 lbs if this was a handicap and he also has the benefit of arguably the best rider in the race.

JT McNamara won this race on the Jonjo O’Neill trained Rith Dubh. His record at Cheltenham is a superb 12 wins from 49 races, although most of the wins have come on the Cross country course.

Teaforthree held an RSA entry and was keeping company with Grand Crus no less in a grade 1 chase over Christmas. The stable appear to have made a wise choice taking in this race rather than the RSA and if his rating of 146 is realistic, which it appears to be then TeaforThree looks to hold a good chance of taking this.

That rating was achieved at Chepstow in a Novice chase in November and the 2nd, 3rd and 4th home that day have all come out and franked the form since. He returned to Chepstow in February and won again, but races off the same mark again today.

He looks progressive and the form line with Join Together who is 3rd favourite for the RSA gives him a good chance in this lesser race.

Paul Nicholls has a poor record in this race – only 1 of the 14 runners he has previously entered in the race has even made the frame, but Harry the Viking is the early favourite for this race.

History tells us that winners of this race need a good deal of experience to deal with the hustle and bustle of a big field and it must be a concern that he has only had 5 career races and two over fences. He does look progressive and his form is impressive, but he has been put up 8lb for winning by a head LTO at Doncaster.

Lively baron was 8 lengths behind that day and a disappointing favourite but followed up with a 16 lengths win at Warwick last month. At the revised weights today Lively Baron shouldn’t be far behind Harry the Viking and the 33/1 looks too big, especially when you consider how well the McCain runners performed yesterday.

Irish based trainers have a poor record in the race, but Gordon Elliot broke the trend last year and Soll is very unexposed coming from point to points and has a decent jockey in Katie Walsh. He has never raced on ground this firm, but looked most impressive in winning LTO

Selection: Teaforthree 6/1 with Hills
Danger: Soll
EW Danger: Lively Baron

To get the rest of the day two selections Click Here to join the Betting Insiders Club

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Today’s Selection Sponsored by Betting Insiders Club

Cotton Mill 2.05 Cheltenham 1pt WIN @ 10`1 general

Very good flat pedigree and looks a class act. By not being trained by one of the top stables he seems to have been overpriced by the bookies.

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