Tag Archives: characteristics

Sire System 61% ROI

There are many ways to approach racing and winning from betting and no best way.

But you are likely to be more profitable though if you use an approach that the majority don't use.

One such approach that the man in the street tends not to pay attention to, unless it is called out by somebody in the media is betting on the influence of the sire.

But characteristics and preferences are passed from father to foal and knowing the inbred preferences of a horse can help us find winners.

So today I have the results of some research into one such angle which will hopefully identify some winners for us over the coming weeks.

The sire we are looking at today is Teofilo(IRE).

What I've targeted today is the All Weather runners of the Teofilo progeny.

With any angle the most profit will come from runs made before the horse and it's ability is exposed so we are looking at 2 and 3 year olds in their first 5 runs.

The preferred distance is 7 furlongs or 1 mile.

And we are only betting on standard going which prevails 99% of the time.

So they are the rules and the results for the last 4 years, which is when we first started seeing qualifiers is…

Runs = 82

Wins = 18

Strike Rate = 21.95%

Profit at iSP = + 50.56

Return on Investment = 61.54%

Those figures jump up if we exclude the first year. Looking at just 2012 – 2014 then there is profit in each year with an ROI of 86.93%.

These breakdown to…

2012 ROI = 96%

2013 ROI = 78%

2014 ROI = 66%

Looking at the individual courses there has been no profit at Dundalk or Wolverhampton.

Most of the runs have been at southern tracks (Lingfield, Kempton) so it may be that rather than these runners having no preference for the northern tracks it may just be a case of where the majority of the progeny are based currently.

Do you follow any sire systems or use sire influences in your selection process, if so and you'd like to share them then please add a comment.

Today's Selection

Catterick 4.20 Georgian Firebird – win bet – 4/1 Sky Bet

 

Northumberland Plate Trends

Today we have another example of the kind of method that does find winning and profitable racing selections.

It's been submitted to us by Dave Renham who writes a regular column for the Racing & Football Outlook Newspaper.

Dave has also recently launched a new service that you can try for just £5 called www.horseracereport.co.uk.

Today's analysis of the Northumberland Plate comes from that service…

Northumberland Plate Ten Year Trends

There is an old saying of “A leopard does not change it’s spots”

 In racing unfortunately that saying is not true 100% of the time. Shocks do indeed occur.

I however am a firm believer that it would be foolish to continually ignore key lessons history has to teach us.

Each major race during the racing calendar is an individual and unique event. Each race tends to favour horses with certain characteristics and profiles.

One major race this weekend is the Northumberland plate

Below is my ten year trends report on this race.

I hope it is of some assistance in helping you compile your own sensible shortlist of contenders.

Dave Renham

www.HorseRaceReport.co.uk

Course – Newcastle

Distance – 2 miles

Date 29th  – June 2013

Average field size last 10 years – 19

Market Trends 

Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 11 for a loss of £1.50 (ROI -13.6%).
Top three in betting: 2 wins for the top three in the betting.
Top six in betting: 4 wins for the top six in the betting.
Price: Horses priced between 14/1 and 33/1 have provided 7 of the last 10 winners.

 

LTO stats 

Days since last run: 0 wins from 24 for horses returning to the track within 10 days.
Position LTO: 2 wins for horses that won LTO (from 35 runners).
Position LTO: 7 wins for horses that finished in the first three LTO from 99 runners.
Position LTO: Horses that finished 6th or worse LTO have provided just 1 winner from 55.
LTO favourites: 3 wins for horses that were favourite LTO (from 27 runners).
LTO Top three in betting: 3 wins for horses from the top three in the betting LTO (from 78 runners).
LTO Price: Horses priced between 10/1 and 16/1 LTO have provided 6 of the last 10 winners from only 47 runners. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a profit of £54.50 (ROI +116.0%).
LTO distance: Horses that raced over 1m 7f or less LTO have provided just 2 winners from 95 for a loss of £54.00 (ROI -56.8%); horses that raced over 2m 2f or more LTO have provided 5 winners from 50 for a profit of £25.50 (ROI +51%).

 

Age 

Age

Wins

Runners

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

3

0

1

0.0

-£1.00

-100.0

4

4

64

6.3

+£13.00

+20.3

5

0

44

0.0

-£44.00

-100.0

6

4

41

9.8

+£9.50

+23.2

7+

2

38

5.3

+£11.00

+28.9

 

Official ratings (OR) 

OR band

Wins

Runners

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

90 and below

4

70

5.7

+£39.00

+55.7

91-96

5

67

7.5

-£3.00

-4.5

97 and above

1

51

2.0

-£47.50

-93.1

 

 Draw

Draws

Wins

Runners

SR%

1-6

4

60

6.7

7-12

2

60

3.3

13+

4

68

5.9

 

 Breeding

Breeding

Wins

Runners

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

FR

1

6

16.7

-£2.50

-41.7

GB

3

87

3.4

-£29.00

-33.3

GER

1

1

100.0

+£14.00

+1400.0

IRE

4

78

5.1

+£11.00

+14.1

USA

1

14

7.1

-£3.00

-21.4

Other countries

0

2

0.0

-£2.00

-100.0

 

Class change 

Class change

Wins

Runners

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Down in class

1

29

3.4

-£14.00

-48.3

Same class

7

100

7.0

+£20.50

+20.5

Up in class

2

58

3.4

-£17.00

-29.3

 

Trainer stats 

Trainers: 2 wins from 3 runners for Donald McCain.

 

General stats

Headgear (visor, cheekpieces, blinkers, etc): 1 win from 35.
Claiming jockeys: 3 wins from 23.
Recent win: 6 of the last 10 winners had won at least once in their last three starts from 92 runners. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a profit of £11.50 (ROI +12.5%).
Handicap runs: Horses who have had 5 or less handicap runs have provided 0 winners from 43 runners.
Career  wins: Horses with 2 or fewer career wins have provided just 1 winner from 55 runners for a loss of £40.00 (ROI -72.7%).

 

Conclusion – A few interesting angles for this race. Firstly higher rated runners have struggled with those rated 94 and above managing just 1 win from 79; horses rated 85 to 93 have provided 9 winners from 96. Horses stepping up in trip have struggled whereas horses dropping 2 furlongs or more in trip have performed well above the average. The top three in the betting have performed well below the norm despite a winning favourite last year, while the 14/1 to 33/1 price bracket has actually yielded a 10 year profit if backing all runners from that band. LTO market factors have also favoured slightly higher prices with the LTO price bracket of 10/1 to 16/1 doing especially well. Age wise there is no clear pattern.

Dave Renham

Dave Renham writes a regular horse racing research column for the Racing & Football Outlook Newspaper. He also runs www.HorseRaceReport.co.uk which offers both free and  a  low cost paid for options to people interested in researched racing advice.

Today's Selection

2:30:00 Doncaster 5 Inyordreams – each way bet – 9/1 Will Hill, Bet Victor

Stand Out Stats

I don't know if you signed up for the Stand Out Stats freebie last week? But with the main package going on sale today I though this would be a good time to share a review written by one of our testers who managed to get access to the pack earlier this month…

Stand Out Stats

I was able to obtain a sneak preview of a new and potentially exciting product being launched shortly by James Fitzmaurice.

The Stand Out Stats relate to the significant and very profitable trends that, after extensive research, have been uncovered for each of the Racecourses across both the National Hunt and Flat Racing seasons.

For each course there is an introduction to their individual layout including characteristics such as the direction the horses travel as well as useful notes such as how testing the track and finish may well be.

Following this intro there are a list of simple to follow traits involving either backing or laying to specific criteria, the qualifiers from which can easily be found in the racing pages of the mainstream newspapers or the trusty favourite Racing Post.

For each day’s racing you will be able to quickly work through the general Course, Trainers and Jockeys Stand Out Stats to highlight potentially profitable selections to back and oppose by laying on the exchanges.

For each course there is an indication of the profits that these Stats would have produced during the previous 10 year period.

I was able to review a recent meeting at Towcester based on the Stand Out Stats for that particular track and the results were very encouraging.

It took approx. 10-15 minutes to go through the card and produce a list of potential selections which included a couple of backs and a longer list (9) of lays.

The two suggested back selections both ran solid races with the first coming 3rd @4/1 and the later one actually winning @11/2 and paid bigger on the Betfair SP @7.56.

It is fair to say that some of the lay prices may have been beyond the comfort zone of many but in basic terms there were 8 winning lay bets and just the one loser @1.53 on the Betfair SP which does highlight the potential of this approach.

If we kept to a sensible price cut off of single figure lay prices the end result would have been 5 winning lays and just the one loser mentioned above.

If we combine the backs and single figure lays the one meeting alone would have produced a tidy profit of +9.45 points using level stakes and the returned Betfair SP after allowing for 5% commission deductions.

Of course there will be less fruitful days but it was an interesting exercise to actually see the Stand Out Stats method in action, and based on the ease of use and the potential profits it certainly looks one to keep on the right side of in the never ending battle with the bookmakers and those sharp minds on the exchanges.

This launch doesnt go live until 12:00 today, but if you are looking for a comprehensive set of micro systems for every track in that land, then this is it – Click Here

Bookie Specials

Eachway Terms

2.05 5 Places from Bet 365, Sky Bet, Bet Victor
3.20 Avoid Bet Fred who are 1/5 odds all others 1/4
4.40 5 places from Bet 365, ToteSport, Bet Fred

The best offers of the day are

Bet 365 back a channel 4 winner and get a free bet on the next race.
Coral £10 refund on 1st race bets
Paddy Power if your selection finishes 2nd to the favourite your money refunded

Today's Selection

We will take advantage of the Coral offer again as we like not losing.

Cheltenham 1.30 Dynaste – win bet – 6/4 Coral (£10 back if loses)

Pro Football Gamblers – Outrights

Before we get into today's article from Pro Football Gambler Goran Trpevski I just wanted to ket you know that there are still places with The Form Man service and more excitingly they made 37 points yesterday, that's all at level stakes.

Click Here to secure a place

Goran Trpevski is a former professional footballer who has his own well established tipping service. It is again in profit this season.

Goran's service offers traditional pre kick off bets and also the opportunity to follow along in play making the same bets that Goran makes.

Goran is offering a heavily discounted trial of his full service for Daily Punt readers and you can find details of that here.

With my service the majority of my bets are around the 2.0 (evens mark) which means we have a healthy strike rate and no long losing runs.

I also like to invest a lot of money on outright bets such as seasonal outcomes as I look on it as free money if you have an eye to spot the opportunity. Earlier this season I saw a great example and told my members.

The bet was Juventus to win Serie A each way and we invested 3 units on each (1/3 odds top 2) so 6 in total at 2.50 (6/4).

Why did we go each way? Well if we win we win on the equivalent of a 2.00 price (6 points profit) and if Juventus finish second we stand to lose just 25% of our stake. If they finish third we lose our entire stake but in my opinion that was not going to happen.

Opening prices on Juve were 2.62 for the title in Italy but there was a lot going on pre-season and the prices started to fall. It’s a fact that the squad of players at Juve got better by some 15-20% and their rivals got worse.

How? This was how I described it to my members…

Lucio, Asamoah. Giovinco and Isla were signed. Out of these four Isla is World class in his position. Mind you they already had good players in his position.

Giovinco will fight with Gacherini for a starting place and sometimes they will play Vucinic in that position. Vucinic is one of Conte’s untouchables. You see Juve have tons of players and even though Lucio is a very good defender who will he take out from that backline?

What’s even funnier is that the names that are mentioned in the papers about who else they want to sign. Juve’s situation is clear. They will be a very serious side and not just by Italian standards.

What of the competition. Well Inter and Moratti will save money and the team they will put out to take on the Calcio this season will be close to a joke. They will have a tough and long season and if Inter win the league it will because Juve lost it themselves. Their position will be third or fourth and Napoli is a more serious side then Inter this season actually.

AC Milan? When I said some years ago that Milan are a spent force lacking in funds people did not want to listen. Then all the transfers out started such as Shevcenko and Kaka and now the latest Silva and Ibrahimovic.

Milan without these two players are how much worse? 40%? Well it’s up for debate. Milan will take 1-2 players but for them to challenge this Juve side, well it will take a lot for that to happen.

Juve’s prices today can’t be above 2.10. No way. In reality they have no rivals once Ibrahimovic signs for PSG. Absolute worst case is that they come second and for us that means we lose 1.5 units out of a total of 6 invested, which in a situation like this is nothing. Invest now as this is a super play at these prices.

So that was what I thought and the value was too good to miss. Take a look now at the prices and we are only 12 games into the season. Juve are top 4 points ahead of Inter and 5 ahead of Napoli. AC Milan are in 13th place and 17 points behind. The best price you can get at the moment on Juve to win the title is 1.4.

I could see what was going to happen in the league early enough to get the good prices and great value.

Maybe some people don’t want to tie up so much money long term but the value was massive and I could not turn it down.

When some punters look for value they want an 8/1 chance that is priced up at 16/1. You won’t get bets like that with my service but you will have access to amazing value with bets like:-

Chelsea to win the league without the 2 Manchester clubs at 2.2 and now you can’t get bigger than 1.29.

PSV to win the Eredivisie at 4.0 and we went in again each way at 3.25 units. The best price now is 1.73.

Atletico Madrid to finish in the top 4 in Spain we took at 1.83. Best price now is 1.05.

The start of the season can be an excellent time for outrights but I keep looking for value throughout the season and if I see some more gems our members will be getting them.

——–

Goran has a bet tonight in the Valencia Vs Bayern Munich game.

The bet is Bayern Munich to win (draw no bet), this was given out yesterday when the price was 1.63, the price is now 1.599 with Pinnacle.

With a draw no bet, bet if the game ends in a draw you will get your money back.

Here's Goran's assessment of the match…

Before the season I warned you guys that with Valencia we had no guarantees this season.

Yes they can finish third again, but they can also finish something like 8th.

Why? Because Emery left and with Emery alot of things left as well.

In came Pellegrino and we knew nothing about him. Well as a player we knew,but as a coach nothing at all.

Being as assistant coach doesn’t count of course as setting up cones and taking notes is not the same as being in charge.

Valencia so far? Pretty much where I expected them to be, win some suffer some.

Mestalla is a very tough place to manage (Benitez won two league titles and still was not liked) Emery left after coming third twice and still was not liked.

First game in Bayern and it was total domination for the Bavarians.

Score 2-1 is a big lie as it was closer to 4-0 then 2-1 that I can tell you.

Valencia did not come to play and that’s a negative.

This game at the Mestalla can be a decider about who wins this group. Coming second and you are in for a tougher draw later on. One thing getting Celtic another thing getting Barca.

Bayern won’t lose in Spain. They will dictate the tempo of the game, they will control the match and they should not lose in this one.

Tactics match up and we see two teams playing in a similiar way. Both use one central striker (Mandjukic/Pizzaro v Soldado) Both use the wings alot when attacking but with different characteristics.

Valencia use a left footer on the left (Guardado) and right foot on the right (Fegholi). While Bayern have #wrong foot# on the wings most of the time Ribery left and Robben (out though and replaced by Shakiri in this game) on the right.

Bayern should not lose this game and I see them winning in the end.

Today's Racing Selection

Folkestone 12.40 Floral Spinner – win bet

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