Tag Archives: chasers

Grand National Tip :-o

Can I have more please? More Nick Hardman incites.

Yes it's Friday and this week Nick Hardman (http://bettinginsiders.com) has an improvement to yesterday's Southwell system, an ante post bet for the Grand National and an angle and selections for today's Cheltenham meeting.
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Yesterday we gave you a nice system for Keith Dalgleish’s handicap runners at Southwell. I was playing around with Horse Race Base and I found that we can improve on his already excellent performance at the Midlands track with a system that has a 50% strike rate in the last two years.

Using HRB I found that all bar one of his 19 winners at Southwell were in races at distances between 7f and 2m (his runners are 1-12 over 5f and 6f showing a loss of -£5.50).

In addition I found that Dalgleish has used 15 different jockeys for those 72 rides at Southwell. All the winners have been ridden by just three jockeys:

If we concentrate on 2013 and 2014 then we come up with a system showing a 50% strike rate in the last two years:

Rules: Keith Dalgleish runners at Southwell (AW) over 7f to 2m ridden by Tom Eaves or Simon Walker:

Runners = 30
Winners = 15
Places = 17
Win strike rate = 50%
Place strike rate = 57%
Profit/ Loss = +£62.41

When it comes to readying one for the Grand National, no one does it better than the McCain yard. This season their two Grand National horses appear to be Across The Bay and Kruzhlinin.

Jockey bookings (and finishing places) in the Becher Chase suggest Kruzhlinin is the stable first choice for the Big One. He was sent off at 33/1 to for the Becher Chase where he finished a never nearer, but highly respectable 7th.

I expected to see him at a similar price for the 2015 Grand National and could not believe that Skybet were offering 100/1. About 18 horses finish the Grand National these days and Kruzhlinin has shown that he gets round over these fences, having finished 10th back in April.

Effectively we are looking at 100/1 in an 18 runner race. Unfortunately Skybet have cut him to 50/1 but he is still available at 66/1 with a few firms. When I bet the Grand National I am primarily looking for a sound jumper with course experience and a fairly low weight.

Kruzhlinin ticks plenty of boxes and as apparent stable first string he rates decent ante-post value at 66/1.

Grand National ante-post tip: Kruzhlinin @66/1

Cheltenham’s December meeting kicks off today with the feature race being the Paddy Power Gold Cup on Saturday and unfortunately my ante-post fancies John’s Spirit and Present View are not lining up.

Paul Nicholls is the most successful trainer at the December meeting in recent times with 14 winners since 2010 (from 50 runners, 28% strike rate).

At the December meeting since 2010 he is 4-10 with his chasers in class 1 and 2 races that have run at Cheltenham 2 or more times.

He has the following entries that fit that profile:

Friday:

12.30pm Vivaldi Collonges (chase debut, likely outsider of the four)

Saturday

12.50pm Virak & Katgary
2.00pm Caid Du Berlais

Good luck if you are having a bet this weekend.

Doncaster Hurdlers

Today we have our regular, winning advice from Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders. (http://bettinginsiders.com )

Another Three Winners

We bagged another 3 winners last Friday although it was frustrating to see Trustan Times being badly impeded while in the process of running a big race in the Fixed Brush Hurdle on Saturday.  Still, that’s racing for you and we move on.  This week we take a look at a trainer with a fantastic record with his hurdlers and I will tell you where my money is going in the Hennessy Gold Cup on Saturday.

When I started writing this post I was looking for an angle for today’s Doncaster meeting and one trainer that caught my eye was John Quinn.  His record at Doncaster since 2010 is shown below:

Screen Shot 2014-11-27 at 13.21.50

John Quinn has sent out 309 hurdlers in the last 5 seasons compared to 25 chasers and 27 bumper runners.  If we look at the performance of his hurdlers at Doncaster priced 20/1 or shorter the stats look even more impressive:

Screen Shot 2014-11-27 at 13.26.18

That got me thinking about the performance of his hurdlers at other tracks.  He does exceptionally well (strike rate >30%) at many of the Northern tracks, especially Doncaster, Cartmel and Newcastle.  His hurdlers are worth noting at the following tracks:

Ayr, Ascot, Cartmel, Doncaster, Haydock, Hexham, Lingfield, Newbury, Newcastle, Perth, Wetherby and Worcester.  Backing all his hurdlers at these tracks, priced 20/1 or shorter since 2010 would have resulted in the following profits:

Screen Shot 2014-11-27 at 13.27.05

If you want a system with consistency then take a look at the yearly breakdown of John Quinn’s hurdlers at the courses we identified above.

Screen Shot 2014-11-27 at 13.28.01

John Quinn has 2 hurdlers entered at Newcastle on Saturday:

2.05pm Aurore D’Estruval @6/1

3.15pm Zermatt

Saturday also sees the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury and it looks like a terrific renewal.  I have taken a look at the profiles of the previous winners and there are two that tick plenty of boxes.  The two trends horses I will be backing are:

Newbury 3.00pm Smad Place @8/1 and Rocky Creek @10/1

Ten Racing Systems

Today I have news of 10 free systems from one of the most respected racing system creators.

Gavin Priestley will shortly be launching this years Trainer Track Stats, which has registered a profit in every one of the 7 years that it has been published.

To celebrate this years launch Gavin is giving away 10 trainer based systems for free.

The systems include…

– The trainer rarely makes a mistake when the money is down. Since 2008 an incredible 14 out of his 18 runners that were 4/1 or under have won including a stunning 11 of the last 12!

– The trainer with a 70% strike rate when running his horses in Sellers?

– The trainer with a near 85% strike rate (11 winners from 13 runners) with his long distance chasers?

– The small yard which excels with their runners that won last time out.

– The Northern stable whose runners are always worth following when turned out quickly.

The 10 Trainer Systems selected in this guide would have won you over £6,000 in the last 5 seasons for just £20 stakes with an incredible average strike rate of 67%!!

And yes it really is FREE….

>>>>10 FREE trainer systems<<<<

This is the first in a series of freebies from Trainer Track Stats and all you need to do to get all of the give-aways is to register your email address here – http://www.trainertrackstats.com/

Lay Debutants

14:10:00 Pontefract 9 Petite Madame (IRE)
14:20:00 Windsor 9 Coastal Storm
14:50:00 Windsor 10 Gracie Hart
14:50:00 Windsor 6 Moscato
14:50:00 Windsor 8 Supachap

Today's Selection

5.00 Wolverhampton Train Hard – win bet – 5/2 Sky Bet, Boylesports

Free Cheltenham Pointers

I've just finished reading this months Secret Betting Club report.

This month they have a detailed feature that looks at what equipment and applications are best for managing your betting on the go.

The article looks at the best bookmaker apps and the best apps for finding results quickly.

It also includes details of how you can watch more obscure events on your phone through streaming TV apps, which is useful if you are betting on events that aren't streamed by the bookies. And how to access your home PC or server from your smartphone.

As you might expect the report is also filled with tips and opinions on the upcoming Cheltenham Festival including a couple of trainer and jockey pointers which have proved profitable in the past, which I've copied below…

Back all Ferdy Murphy runners over fences

Since 2003 by backing all Ferdy Murphy runners over fences you would have profited to the tune of £10,400 to £100 stakes.

Lay Paul Nicholls chasers

Amazingly Paul Nicholls has had 55 losing consecutive runners in chase races at the Festival and although it's a strategy laden with risk given the armoury in the yard, the statistics don't lie and Nicholls runners will always be liable to be overbet.

Back Barry Geraghty mounts in Grade 1 races

Since 2003 by following Geraghty's mounts blindly in Grade 1 races you would have profited to the tune of £3745.00 to £100 level stakes.

Lay all AP McCoy mounts

Backing all AP McCoy mounts at SP since 2003 at £100 stakes would have resulted in a net loss of £6638.00. Laying McCoy mounts on the exchanges won't show the same level of profit but would still have earned you a tidy sum.

SBC have a free Cheltenham report which is due out today and they also send a free sample of their members report to everyone who registers for the Cheltenham report. Click Here to get that

Today's Selection courtesy of Bankers Bonus

3:10 Fontwell Utopian – win bet – 7/2 Bet365, Paddy Power, Bet Victor

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