Tag Archives: Chester Cup

Cesarewitch Tips

Today we have our weekly look at the weekends racing action from Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders (http://dailypunt.com/nickhardman)

Nick has set us up with some nice winners this season and today he tries to find us the winner of the Cesarewitch to add to his tally…

Last week we highlighted in-form trainer Charlie Longsdon. He bagged us a winner that day and has followed up with another in midweek. He is still a trainer I want to keep on-side in the early part of the season and he sends a few runners to Carlisle today.

He has a decent strike rate at the track too with 6 winners from 19 runners. He has the following entries on Friday:

Charlie Longsdon Carlisle runners Friday 10/10/2014

3.10pm Drop Out Joe
3.45pm Orange Nassau
4.20pm Simply The West
5.20pm Deadly Move

Cesarewitch Tips

On to Saturday and we have the last of the big handicaps in the Cesarewitch.

Having already landed the Ebor and Cambridgeshire it is a tall order to land the hat-trick but I wouldn’t be doing my job if I didn’t at least share my thoughts.

This race has gone to some big priced winners in recent times including winners at 66/1, 66/1 and 25/1 in the last three renewals.

Weight and official ratings do not tell us much regarding potential winners but, with the exception of Scatter Dice last year, the previous 10 winners had winning form over 2m or further.

Hurdlers have finished in the top two in 13 of the last 17 renewals. Other strong trends include a top 4 finish last time out and no more than 7 runs in the season. That helps reduce the field to 9.

One who ticks plenty of boxes is Big Easy for Philip Hobbs and the trainer knows what it take to win this having done so with Detroit City in 2006.

Big Easy looks to have solid credentials having finished runner-up in the trial race 3 weeks ago. That was his first flat run of the season and he should come on bundle for the run and he has a nice draw in stall 2.

Another who is guaranteed to stay is Chester Cup winner Suegioo. He last two runs have been over trips shorter than 2 miles and I think he will relish every yard of this trip. He was also a fine 2nd in the Northumberland Plate over 2 miles and that race is a good pointer for horses who run well in the Cesarewitch.

Another with solid prospects is Swnymor who has to turn the form around with hotpot favourite Quick Jack, but he takes him on here on much better terms (16lbs better to be exact).

My only concern is his wide draw in stall 34 but with several bookmakers paying 6 places he is still worth an each-way interest.

If you fancy taking something at a bigger price then the ultra-consistent Noble Silk, a good 4th in the Northumberland Plate, should give you a run for your money 33/1.

Nicky Henderson trained the winner of this in 2008 and Kieron Fallon rode the winner in 2012. They team up on Earth Amber @33/1 and any rain would help his cause, although he is another from our short list who has been done no favours by the draw (stall 33).

Saturday Newmarket 3.50pm

Trends horses: Big Easy @12/1 & Suegioo @16/1

Alternatives: Swnymor @16/1, Earth Amber @33/1 & Noble Silk @33/1

Free TV Racing Tips

This week we have Saturday racing analysis and tips again from Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders.

Before I hand over to Nick who has 9 free TV racing tips I just want to mention a service that has a discount offer that expires at the end of May which is midnight tonight.

Hawkeye Tips is a selective flat betting service that has had 11 selections this month with winners at 14/1, 11/1, 10/1 and 9/1 (advised prices).

You can do the math on that but it is a huge return on investment.

The discount price is £29.99 for 3 months or £99.99 for a year. These go up to £29.99 per month and £179.99 per year from tonight.

To get the discounted prices go to http://hawkeyetips.com

Over to Nick…

Last weekend we managed to pick out a couple of winners in Hot Streak and Slip Sliding Away and two placed horses in Kingsgate Native and Perfect Blessings. Unfortunately with all the rain that fell and the large number of withdrawals we were hit by some large reductions. This weekend I have picked out the best bets from across the cards at Chester, Haydock and York.

The Class 2 Handicap over 7f at Chester (3.05pm) looks a decent race and features a fair number of previous course winners.

Purcell was disappointing in the Victoria Cup when finishing well down the field but I expect him to bounce back here with the tight turns of the Roodee likely to suit and a plum draw in stall 2.

Purcell’s trainer, Andrew Balding, had 3 winners from 7 runners at the May meeting and has saddled 13 winners at the course in the last 2 years.

In the last 5 years his handicappers have won 14 races at the course (23% strike rate) and show a level stakes profit of 24pts. I am also happy to put up Deauville Prince as an each-way selection at 16/1 as he has every chance on his earlier form.

Rated 105 back in February after creditable performances in Group 3 races at Meydan and Longchamp, he races here off 100 with Jenny Powell taking off another 7lbs.

If he can get across from stall 5 he could well be leading around the home turn and, as he stays a mile, could still be there to fight out the finish.

Later on the card Andrew Balding runs Storm Force Ten in the 1m 4f Class 4 handicap. A winner at the May meeting he re-opposes the horse he beat by a head that day in Captain Morley.

He is 1lb worse off for a head victory but he has in-form jockey Oisin Murphy on board who takes off 3lb.

Captain Morley had a poor draw that day and ran well to get so close to the eventual winner. I think there is nothing to choose between the pair so I am happy to back both @9/2.

Over at York, the Listed 1m 6f race looks a fascinating contest. I do like the look of Alan King’s First Mohican but I would want better than the currently available 9/2 before getting involved.

Instead, two who can go well at an each-way price are top weight Renew and Shwaiman.

The latter ran well to finish 6th in the Chester Cup from stall 18 and could potentially be the biggest improver in the field.

Renew has a Listed victory at the back end of last season on his CV and was a creditable 4th in the Group 2 Jockey Club Stakes last time out, with winner Gospel Choir franking that form nicely.

Staying at York, the 5f Class 2 BetBright Trophy Handicap looks hugely competitive and it is difficult to rule out any of the runners with certainty.

Richard Fahey’s Alben Star is currently favourite but it should be noted that he has raced predominantly over 6f and his sole win over the minimum trip was on his racecourse debut.

His trainer also saddles El Viento who is back down to his last winning mark of 91 and gets further respite with a 5lb claimer on board.

Richard Fahey has said he does not think El Viento is an outsider and there is not much between his two runners.

With a nice high draw, a return to form would see him outrun his odds of 40/1.

At the other end of the market, Monsieur Joe is an out and out 5f specialist and has won 9 times at the distance. He won’t mind any ground condition having won on good to firm, soft and polytrack. He’s up 5lb for his latest win but looks in good form and should run another big race.

If Garswood runs anywhere close to his official rating he will win the Group 3 Timeform Jury Stakes at Haydock.

His seasonal reappearance effort casts enough doubt for me to look elsewhere and I think Breton Rock has as good a chance as any.

The C&D winner is 6 from 8 over 6f and 7f when racing on good to soft or worse. At 4 years old he is open to improvement and I will be hoping for plenty of cut in the ground having backed him @7/1.

Selections:

Chester 3.05pm: Purcell @4/1 and Deauville Prince @16/1 each-way (1/4 odds, 3 places Paddy Power)

Chester 5.15pm: Storm Force Ten @9/2 and Captain Morley @9/2

York 2.20pm: Renew @12/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 3places Bet365) and Shwaiman @18/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 3places BetVictor)

York 2.50: Monsiuer Joe @11/1 and El Viento @40/1 (1/4 odds, 4 places Ladbrokes)

Haydock 2.40: Breton Rock @7/1

Weekend Racing Selections

Happy Saturday. Today we have a weekend racing review from Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders which includes 6 selections.

Before that I should just mention that the Bet 365 free in play bet is back for the Champions League tonight.

Basically if you bet £50 pre-off then you get a free £50 in play, we've covered how to get a free £35 out of this many times before as have many others.

Weekend Racing Selections

We have some great racing this weekend with exciting cards at Haydock and Goodwood and the Irish 2000 and 1000 Guineas. I have gone through the cards at Haydock and Goodwood in search of some decent prices and some each-way value.

In the opener at Haydock, Glenard looks a solid betting proposition after a cracking 5th in the Chester Cup from a less than ideal draw. Travelling as well as any, he failed to get home that day and the drop back to 2 miles should be in his favour. The booking of in-form Ryan Moore is a big plus and 5/1 is just about value. With all bookmakers going ¼ odds, 3 places you can spread the risk by backing him each-way at that price if you wish.

The 6f Class 3 handicap at 2.05 looks wide open and one horse who is worth a second look is Out Do. He has some smart form from last year, winning twice for Luca Cumani.

Perhaps his best run was when finishing 3rd, beaten 2 ¼ lengths in a Class 2 handicap at Windsor by Tropics (now rated 115) and Rex Imperator (now rated 110 and a subsequent winner of the Steward’s Cup at Glorious Goodwood). Now rated 90, Out Do ran better than the bare result at York in a Class 2 handicap last time out and he takes a slight drop in class here. He could go well at a nice price.

The Temple Stakes at Haydock pitches the proven older horses Sole Power and Kingsgate Native against the rising stars of sprint racing in Hot Streak and Pearl Secret. With 13 of the last 17 winners coming from the top 4 in the betting and 7 of the last 8 winners returning at odds of 8/1 or less, it looks best to focus on those at the head of the market.

Hot Streak appears to be all the rage having been backed into 9/4 outright favouritism and Sole Power, an impressive winner of the Palace House Stakes, outright second favourite. Hot Streak is the one I would want to be on if the word “soft” appears in the going, with Kingsgate Native and Sole Power undoubtedly preferring a sounder surface. Of the others, Jack Dexter has never won above Group 3 level and there is little to suggest that will change judged on his two runs so far this season.

Hawkeyethenoo has done all his winning in handicap company and is priced accordingly.
At the prices the value has to lie with Kingsgate Native, winner of this race in 2010 and 2013 and runner up to Sole Power in 2011. You could argue that Sole Power had match fitness on his side in the Palace House Stakes but in reality there is not much to choose between Hot Streak, Sole Power and Kingsgate Native. As long as the ground is good or better I am happy to back the old boy each-way @7/1 with Bet365 who offer ¼ odds, 3 places.

On the same card I am going to give an each-way shout to Clive Cox’s Perfect Blessings in the 6f Listed race for fillies at 3.10pm. If the forecast rain changes the going to the soft side of good then I will be even happier. Clive Cox’s twice-raced filly scored an emphatic win over subsequent winner Penny Drops, who incidentally was 3rd on debut behind 2000 Guineas winner Night Of Thunder. She takes a big hike in class here but she also holds a Group 3 entry in the Ballyogan Stakes at Leopardstown, so she must be held in high regard by connections.

Over at Goodwood, the race that interests me is the 4.40pm Class 4 handicap for older horses (6yo+) over 6f. Five C&D winners line up and the two I like are Slip Sliding Away for Peter Hedger and last year’s winner Mon Brav. Peter Hedger does really well with his handicappers at the track and Slip Sliding Away has recorded 3 of his 4 wins here. A return to Goodwood might just be the ticket for him to get his head in front again. Mon Brav won this race last year and has been running respectably since without winning. That has seen his mark tumble to 2lb lower than when successful here in 2013 and he ran his best race for some time when finishing 4th of 17 at Doncaster in a Class 4 handicap last week.

Earlier in the card we have a decent looking Class 2 handicap over 7f. Penny Drops is interesting on handicap debut but I will give an each-way shout to Mick’s Yer Man who is looking more and more like a very smart horse. Last time out he won a Listed race at Ascot from 106 rated (and subsequent scorer) Musical Comedy. He won’t mind if the ground softens up and he might just defy top weight at a first try over 7f.

Selections:

Haydock 1.35: Glenard @5/1 each-way (1/4 odds, 3 places Coral)
Haydock 2.05 Out Do @9/1 each-way generally
Haydock 2.40 Kingsgate Native 7/1 each-way (1/4 odds, 3 places Bet 365)
Haydock 3.10 Perfect Blessings 8/1 each-way generally
Goodwood 2.55 Mick’s Yer Man 10/1 each-way (1/4 odds, 3 places William Hill)
Goodwood 4.40 Mon Brav @4/1 & Slip Sliding Away @8/1 generally

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