Tag Archives: clean sheet

Racing Tips – Nick Hardman

Today we have my favourite column of the week, the Nick Hardman – Betting Insiders column.

Before I hand you over to Nick just to mention that there is a qualifier from the Tongue Tie system, which we are paper trading currently and that’s 16:15 Sandown Paddy The Stout.

If you enjoy Nick’s columns as much as I do then do check out the Betting School Insiders Club where you can enjoy more of his wisdom.

Here’s Nick…

We have jumps racing at Fakenham and Sandown today and Nicky Henderson’s runners might be worth a second look in the betting markets given his record at both tracks.

Since January 2011 he has sent 30 runners to Fakenham and 13 have won. However, backing each of those runners to level stakes would have resulted in a very small loss at SP.

Dig a little deeper and we find that his Fakenham runners are 1-6 in chases, 8-19 in hurdles races and 4-5 in bumper races.

Taking a closer look at the hurdlers we find they are 5-10 in novice races, 2-5 in maiden races and 1-4 in handicaps.

He has the following entries at the time of writing:

1.45 Medieval Chapel (Beginners’ Chase)
3.25pm Clean Sheet (Novices’ Hurdle)
4.35pm Clemency (Mares’ NH Flat Race)

At Sandown, Nicky Henderson has had 35 winners from 145 runners in the last 5 years at a strike rate of 24% and shows a level stakes profit of £36.07.

His hurdlers are 26-95 (27% strike rate) and show a profit of £47.72.

He has won with 8 of his last 18 hurdlers at the course for a profit of £27.69.

The Barry Geraghty/ Nicky Henderson partnership has teamed up for 17 hurdle winners at Sandown from 42 runners at an impressive strike rate of 41% and a level stakes profit of £41.12.

Nicky Henderson has the following entries at Sandown today:

2.30pm Broxbourne (Geraghty) & Hel Tara (Mares’ Novice Hurdle)

One of the feature races of the weekend is the Grand National Trial at Haydock.

Last Friday our trends analysis identified Violet Dancer as a likely candidate for the Betfair Hurdle and I am hoping for more of the same this weekend.

The key trends are a win over 3m or further, aged 9yo – 11yo, not raced in the last 31 days, raced over 3m 5f or further, a top two finish LTO and trained by Paul Nicholls, Lucinda Russell or Venetia Williams.

In addition, only 3 winners since 1997 have carried more than 11st to victory on soft or heavy going.

There is one horse who ticks all the trends boxes apart from the trainer box and that is Harry The Viking.

He has not won since his novice days from where he went on to finish runner-up to Teaforthree in the National Hunt Chase at the 2012 Cheltenham Festival.

That run earned him a rating of 143 and he competed in the Scottish National, The Hennessy and the Grand National after that.

However, he failed to build on that early promise and his mark plummeted to 122.

Off that mark he ran his best race in a long time when runner-up to Lie Forrit last time out when 2lbs out of the handicap. He has been raised just 2lbs for that effort.

Haydock Grand National Trial – Harry The Viking @20/1 (e/w)

At that price he would be the biggest winner since Rambling Minster @18/1 in 2009 but Rigadin De Beauchene won this @16/1 last year and 8 of the last 12 winners returned SPs of 10/1 or higher.

Premier League Football Tips

Today we have a preview of the weekends football action and Premier League football tips from Tipster Warehouse…

Premier League Preview

With the excitement of the FA Cup now firmly behind us we once more focus on the Premier League race this weekend. All of the top four clubs will be looking to capitalise on facing weaker opposition and hope to pull away from the chasing pack. As always seems to be the way in this great league one of more of them is likely to fail in that pursuit and this Saturday I have a feeling that Jose Mourinho and his Chelsea men have the hardest task.

Chelsea play Everton in the early afternoon televised clash and although in previous years their form at the Bridge has been superb they do have an air of vulnerability about them this season. Roberto Martinez has managed to turn his squad of players into an effective but not consistent side and they will need to be at their very best to match the Blues. Although big favourites to win I have a feeling that these sides will nullify each other and a draw will be a fair result.

This would of course open up the top spots for those just behind them in the most exciting of title chases in recent memory. Both Arsenal and Manchester City play in rare 3pm Saturday kick offs and they will be hoping to jump on any mistakes made by Chelsea. The Gunners have what on paper looks to be an easy tie against Sunderland. The form of the Black Cats has improved enormously over recent months as Gus Poyet gets his feet under the table – 3 wins and a draw in the last 5 games is testament to that – but will this be enough to stop the juggernaut that is Arsenal? I suspect not and with Arsene Wenger’s men dispatching lower league opponents with aplomb this season I expect a 3 or 4 goal margin and a stroll for the gunners.

As for City they need Chelsea to lose and Arsenal to fail to pick up all three points if they are to top the table this weekend. With home form that is just truly stunning this season most of us would expect a trouncing for Stoke but I would utter a few words of caution. They are one of only four clubs this season who have managed to keep a clean sheet against City after their scoreless draw back in September and City have failed to register a goal in 180 Premier League minutes now. If I had to predict a result it would still be a heavy loss for Stoke but maybe just maybe they could get something from the game.

The last of the top four Liverpool play on Sunday and have what on paper is an easy match with Swansea. Luis Suarez has now failed to net in three games and with his form as good as it is I suspect that he will punish a club severely very soon. This could be Garry Monk and his not so merry men this weekend. A brace or hat trick from Suarez in a convincing win for the Reds looks likely.

One last match that seems good value for taking candy from the bookies is Crystal Palace against a resurgent and fired up Manchester United. Although in poor form of late I just can’t see Messrs Rooney and Van Persie failing to run riot in South London and rack up a cricket score. Palace are playing better football of late but that is when faced with less tough opposition. United will be too strong for them and I expect a good away win.

Double Tip this weekend

I fancy Manchester clubs both United and City to win convincingly and reap some fine rewards for punters. If you’re feeling a little more adventurous I’d add Arsenal and Liverpool to the mix for a nice little foursome.

Manchester City + Manchester United both to win gives odds of 1.94

Manchester City + Manchester United + Arsenal + Liverpool all 4 to win gives odds of 3.36

To find out more about Tipster Warehouse and to get more free tips Click Here.

Today’s Racing Selection courtesy of Betting Insiders

Exeter 4.20 Wilton Milan – win bet – 7/2 bet 365, Bet Victor

Profit From the Odds That Produce Goals

Today we have a guest article from Clive Keeling of What Really Wins Money.

If you have something interesting or profitable that you would like to share with readers of the Daily Punt, do send us an email, we are always willing to share winning ideas with our readers.

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The next time you peruse the football betting coupon, pay close attention to the odds. They can sometimes tell a story and provide ready-made clues as to what the bookmakers (or market-makers at Betfair) expect to occur in a given match.

Here are some odds which I have found to produce certain scorelines, or a certain number of goals:

Sub 1.20

1.2 in decimal odds equates to 1/5 in fractional odds.

Any team quoted at under 1.2 in odds (particularly when they are playing at home) equates to goals. (The team will usually score 3 or 4 goals minimum, with a possibility of a win to nil.)

Using a recent weekend, here are some examples of Sub 1.2 odds matches and their resultant score lines.

2.30pm – Dortmund v G Furth – 1.19 home

Correct Score Betting

In this instance, the odds were close. Dortmund did score 3 goals but their opponents managed a consolation goal.

5.30pm – Olympiakos v Kerkira – 1.18 home

Football Betting

Here the 3 goals minimum was nearly reached, but Olympiakos did keep a clean sheet.

6.45pm – Ajax v VVV – 1.13 home

Football fixed odds

Another 2-0 match and another clean sheet.

7pm – Barcelona v Zaragoza – 1.1 home

Over under 2.5

Barcelona scored 3 goals minimum, but did concede a consolation goal.

9pm – Real Madrid v Ath Bilbao – 1.17 home

Match Odds

Real Madrid scored 5 goals, and did concede just 1 goal.

These odds give you a framework – a guide around which to work. The simplest way to validate the odds is to look at the head-to-heads. I want to show you the head-to-heads of the two teams which won 2-0.

Olympiakos head-to-heads v Kerkyra – last six matches:

08.04.2012 D1Olympiakos Pireus 0-1 AO Kerkyra
11.12.2011    D1AO Kerkyra 0-4 Olympiakos Pireus
09.01.2011  D1AO Kerkyra 0-2 Olympiakos Pireus
11.09.2010  D1Olympiakos Pireus 2-0 AO Kerkyra
22.04.2007 D1Olympiakos Pireus 3-1 AO Kerkyra
02.12.2006 D1AO Kerkyra 0-2 Olympiakos Pireus

The clean sheet looks a distinct possibility from the head-to-heads, but Olympiakos have won 2-0 three
times in the last six head-to-heads.

Ajax head-to-heads v Venlo – last six matches:

02.05.2012 D1AFC Ajax 2-0 VVV Venlo
21.08.2011 D1VVV Venlo 2-2 AFC Ajax
20.02.2011 D1AFC Ajax 1-0 VVV Venlo
28.11.2010 D1VVV Venlo 0-2 AFC Ajax
11.04.2010 D1AFC Ajax 7-0 VVV Venlo
20.09.2009 D1VVV Venlo 0-4 AFC Ajax

In the last four head-to-heads, Ajax have only managed to score a maximum of 2 goals.

Compare this with the likes of Real Madrid in their last six meetings against Athletic Bilbao:

02.05.2012 D1Athletic Bilbao 0-3 Real Madrid
22.01.2012 D1Real Madrid 4-1 Athletic Bilbao
09.04.2011 D1Athletic Bilbao 0-3 Real Madrid
20.11.2010 D1Real Madrid 5-1 Athletic Bilbao
08.05.2010 D1Real Madrid 5-1 Athletic Bilbao
16.01.2010 D1Athletic Bilbao 1-0 Real Madrid

Historically, Real Madrid have scored 5-5-3-4-3 against Ath Bilbao. This is very much in keeping with a quote of 1.17 isn’t it?

So what do you do to make money from this information?

Once you have shortlisted sub 1.20 teams, and validated simply by looking at head-to-heads, then look to find a value bet. Value bets in these instances can include any of the following:

✓✓ Over 4.5 goals, with one eye on trading.

✓✓ The possibility for a player to score a hat-trick (I would limit myself to teams with world-class strikers such as Van Persie, Messi and Ronaldo).

✓✓ Dutching a correct score. Look to start at 3-0.

These correct scores are decently priced, which means you can back up to 3 and still profit.

✓✓ Total goals bet for one team. This is a fairly new market but the odds offered are far more attractive
than the match odds.

This second set of odds usually results in both teams scoring and a possible tight win. The odds in question in this second example are 1.7 (or 4/5 in fractional odds) for the away team.

When you spot these odds for the away side, immediately think:

✓✓ Score draw, most probably 1-1

✓✓ The possibility that if the away side wins, it will be a tight one-goal win: 1-2; 0-1 – that kind of
scoreline. Or a possibility that the home side could win, again by a very, very tight scoreline.

You will recall that these were the kinds of odds I used to create my treble bets, which I then layed at Betfair using their multiples.

Here are some examples:

9.30am – Volga Nyzhnyi Novgorod v Spartak Moscow – 1.67 away

Football multiples

Both sides scored and 1-1 resulted. The odds here just peeked below 1.7.

3pm – Reading v Everton – 1.86 away

Football betting

Again, both teams score in this match and Reading only win courtesy of a penalty: another tight match.

3pm – West Brom v Chelsea – 2.04 away

Football Pools

In this match, both teams scored and the home side won a very tight match indeed.

The away odds between 1.7 and just over evens (2.0 decimal) seem to be the ideal odds in which to assume that both sides have a chance of scoring a goal and winning, ideally by 2-1 or 1-2.

How can you profit here?

How about backing 1-1 pre-match, and profiting by trading if a 1-1 arises during the match. Laying the
away side is always an option. Horse racing layers would be delighted at an ability to lay a horse as low as 1.7–2.00 and have a good chance of success.

Why not back both sides to score? Or for you traders, lay the team that scores first? The hope here, of course, is that we reach a 1-1 scoreline rather than a 2-0. And how about those who still play the bookies’ football coupons and the Pools, where score draws are welcome?

Incidentally, for those of you interested in the Football Pools, they now have a dedicated website at http://www.footballpools.com. This is something that piques my interest and I’ll be trying to discover some strategies we can use to profit from this new-look Football Pools.

Today’s Selection

Chepstow 1.55 Always Bold – eachway bet – 7/1 Will Hill

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