Tag Archives: close look

Football and Racing

Today we have a football acca and an interesting observation from Peter Hawkeye that might find us some winners at Chester.

First don't forget to make your Sky Super 6 entry for an absolutely free chance to win a quarter million pounds.

http://dailypunt.com/super6

We've got a football perm from The Alternative Punters Syndicate again, these bets havent hit form yet, but last year we had a fair few collections around the £100 mark from £1 per bet stakes.

TAPS has been successfully tipping since 1996 and you can trial their racing and sports selections for free here http://dailypunt.com/taps

Top Rated ‘Best 5 Aways'
(Perm any 3 from 5 plus all 5 = 11 bets)
MAN CITY
NORWICH
CELTIC
MORTON
BERWICK

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Peter Hawkeye

You can trial Peter's tipping service for a full month for just £7.99 here http://dailypunt.com/hawkeye

I always find it interesting when Irish trainers make the trip over to the UK mainland for certain middle of the road kind of meetings and with horses that seem not to have been in the best form over in Ireland.

Today I noticed that John Patrick Shanahan has a few runners at Chester, a course he has done well at before.

So it may pay to take a close look at those runners and hopefully one or two can pop up at decent prices.

The entries he has are…

1:55 Fragile Earth
2:30 Bethany Bay – 14/1 Bet 365
3:05 Maid Of The Glens – 25/1 Bet 365
3:40 Dolce N Karama
5:25 Drummore Road – 6/1 Bet Victor

A Value Bet

I don't know what percentage of the articles on this site are about value betting, but I'm guessing it's quite high. I make no excuses for that because the fact is value is everything if you want to win.

Today I've been prompted to write about value betting by a bet I had last week.

This was a typical bet from Carl Nicholson's Value Backing service. Cool Friend was the only selection from the Value Backing main service and was advised as an each way bet at 50/1.

In the early days of following Carl I would have shied away from having my full stake on a 50/1 shot, but I've learned that they can win and that if any one can pick them at these prices then Carl is that man. (Carl had a 50/1 winner at the end of the last flat season)

So the first thing I did was to get my bet on and secure my price. Step two in my thought process was how the heck did he pick this and why. So I took a close look at Cool Friend.

What I found was that Cool Friend had won at Aintree, which was where it was running today, and had won over a 9lb higher mark and today it was also getting a 7lb mares allowance.

So essentially this horse was well in and a contender but for some reason it was priced at 50/1.

Now that is a value bet.

And that is today's message, don't look for nailed on winners, look for horses that can win given the breaks but that are priced so big, at such a value price, that should it win that it will pay for a lot of losers.

I don't know what true odds Carl assessed this mare to be but I would guess around 16/1, if you can get 50/1 on a 16/1 chance then you should be betting these as often as you can.

Did it win?

Amazingly Cool Friend started at 33/1 and was beaten by a neck into second on the line by a 100/1 shot. It was still a great return but could've been a big big win.

It's been a good week for Value Backing followers with an 18/1 winner yesterday and a 20/1 winner last Monday.

Today's Selection

Kelso 3.30 Jack the Gent – eachway bet – 9/2 Bet 365

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