Tag Archives: course figures

Systems & Selections from Nick Hardman

We had a nice profit from the Football Forecasts free bets I published yesterday and those that joined the service doubled up their profit with the remaining bets.

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Today we are back to the racing with Nick Hardman.

Nick gave us a huge week last time with King George and Welsh National winners and today he has selections for today and tomorrow's racing.

Get more Nick Hardman goodness here Betting Insiders

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Happy New Year to all Daily Punt subscribers and hopefully a few of you were on our Boxing Day selections for the King George and Welsh National.

On to today and a couple of things I want to share with you.

First up is the Henderson/ Geraghty combination at Sandown.

Since 2010 they have teamed up for 25 winners from just 77 rides, producing a level stakes profit of £29.28 at a strike rate of 32%.

2014 in particular was a good time to back the pair as they managed 5 winners from 13 runners and a level stakes profit of £21.92 (38% strike rate).

In addition to that they have a 52% strike rate in non-handicap hurdle races at the course. On Saturday they team up on the following horses at Sandown:

Henderson/ Geraghty, Sandown 3rd January 2015:

1.50 Tanks For That (Handicap chase)
2.25 L’Ami Serge (Grade 1 hurdle)
3.35 Triolo D’Alene (Handicap chase)

Nicky Henderson also has the following entries at the time of writing although it remains to be seen which horses take up their engagement and if they do, whether Barry Geraghty will be on board.

12.40 Mayfair Music (Listed hurdle)
3.00 Royal Irish Hussar, Sweet Deal and Lough Kent

For Friday I have a few qualifiers from some more systems I am road testing. The qualifiers are:

Southwell Friday January 2nd 2015

12.50pm Wrenigham @12/1
1.55pm Beautiful Stranger @11/2
2.30pm Poppy Bond @11/2

Wreningham has not won for an eternity but has course figures 811332 and is 5lbs below his last winning mark. He could reward each-way backers and Joe Fanning is on board.

Beautiful Stranger is trained by Keith Dalgleish a trainer with a superb record with his handicappers at the Midlands course.

Poppy Bond has two wins and three seconds from 9 AW starts and drops back in trip here after travelling well on her last start. She finished a good second on her last try over track and trip in August 2013.

Wolverhampton Friday January 2nd 2015

5.15pm Little Lord Nelson
6.45pm Tsarglas

Little Lord Nelson ran well on tapeta debut last month and is an interesting runner taking a big drop in trip for a trainer with a good record at Wolverhampton.

Stable mate Tsarglas was a last time out winner and there may be more to come with Adam Kirby an eye-catching booking.

As always, if you are having a bet on these selections then please wager sensibly as these systems are very much a work in progress.

Best of luck.

Nick Hardman

Betting Insiders

Hamilton Trainer Trends

Today we have an article from Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders where he looks at the Hamilton trainers for tonights meeting.

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Hamilton Trainer Trends

At first glance Keith Dalgleish does not appear to be a trainer to follow at Hamilton, despite a highly respectable strike rate of 14.95% in the last 5 years.

Backing all of his 194 runners at the track since 2010 would have resulted in an overall loss of £21.34 to £1 level stakes. However, if we focus solely on his runners in non-handicap races then we see a different story altogether.

Keith Dalgleish (all runners at Hamilton since 2010)

Keith Dalgleish (all runners at Hamilton since 2010)

Click to Enlarge

The record of his runners in non-handicap races is not only highly impressive but they are highly profitable too with a 25% win strike rate and a 50% place strike rate.

Keith Dalgleish (runners in non-handicap races at Hamilton since 2010)

Keith Dalgleish (runners in non-handicap races at Hamilton since 2010)

Click to Enlarge

 

His last 5 runners at the track in non-handicap races have finished 31121 at prices of 20/1, 7/1, 5/2, 50/1 and 9/4. On Friday he has the following entries in non-handicap races:

6.40pm Sir Acclam & Battleranger in the 6f maiden

Battleranger ran 2nd to an odds-on Mark Johnston fancy at the track last time out. That was only his second start and he outran his odds of 50/1 by some way. Sir Acclam was last of 9 on his sole start at Ayr.

Another trainer with a great record at Hamilton is Kevin Ryan. Since 2010 his runners at the course show a level stakes profit of £27.78 and a healthy strike rate of 23.33%.

Kevin Ryan (all runners at Hamilton since 2010)

Kevin Ryan (all runners at Hamilton since 2010)

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His 3yo runners do particularly well.

Kevin Ryan (3yo runners at Hamilton since 2010)

Kevin Ryan (3yo runners at Hamilton since 2010)

Click to Enlarge

He has the following entries on Friday:

7.40pm Hopes N Dreams & Blaine in the 6f class 2 handicap
8.45pm Keep To The Beat (3yo) in the 1m 3f handicap

Hopes N Dream absolutely loves it around Hamilton. The 6yo has course figures of 111711111. That’s 8 wins from 9 visits to the course including a last time out C&D win over useful yardstick Tangerine Trees.

Blaine is also entered in the same race but this former Gimcrack winner is a riskier betting proposition. He has failed to live up to expectations after winning his maiden and the Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes as a 2yo.

Once rated 107 his mark has tumbled to 96 and he unseated his rider last time out. He is undoubtedly talented as shown on his one good run this year when 3rd of 20 in a good handicap at York behind Aetna and Baccarat.

It may be he saves his best for York (form figures 113) but it would be folly to dismiss his chances out of hand here. Keep To The Beat is still a maiden after 9 starts but ran his best race last time out when a 1 ¼ length 3rd of 14 at Beverley. He stepped up from a mile to 10f that day and the extra furlong may well suit.

Our final trainer to follow at Hamilton is Mrs Marjorie Fife. Her record with her runners at the course speaks for itself:

Mrs Marjorie Fife (all runners at Hamilton since 2010)

Mrs Marjorie Fife (all runners at Hamilton since 2010)

Click to Enlarge

She is 2-2 this season at Hamilton and both those victorious horses return to the track on Friday.

7.10pm Mandalay King in the 6f handicap
9.10pm Camerooney in the 1m 1f handicap

Mandalay King is a 9yo now but he is still competitive at his given level. His overall course figures are 1723172241581. All four of his victories have come at class 5 or lower and he goes in the 6f class 5 handicap on Friday evening.

Camerooney is even older at 11 but he is another who loves it around Hamilton with two wins and a third place finish from three starts. Shirley Teasdale is booked to ride both and takes off a useful 5lbs which should see both horses competitive.

Finally, don’t forget we have previously highlighted (and profited from) Tom Dascombe’s runners at Haydock and the Godolphin 2yo runners at Newmarket trained by Charlie Appleby and Saeed bin Suroor. Both courses have meetings this Friday and Saturday so be sure to keep an eye out for their runners over the next two days.

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