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Betfred Mile Tips

Today we are joined by Nick Hardman of Betting School Insiders who has analysed the Betfred King George Stakes and the Betfred Mile.

To get access to all Nick's tips join him at http://bettinginsiders.com

The Glorious Goodwood festival is in full flow and Friday sees the Group 2 Betfred King George Stakes over 5f and the 20 runner Betfred Mile heritage handicap. I have run the rule over the entries and hopefully identified a few likely types including a 28/1 outsider for the feature sprint.

3.05pm Betfred Mile (Heritage handicap) 1m

A big field handicap over a mile and it is worth applying some trends to try and whittle the field down to a few likely contenders.

16 of the last 17 winners were all aged 3 to 5yo
14 of the last 17 winners had a previous win at the distance
All bar two of the winners since 1997 had raced in the last 30 days
14 of the winners since 1997 had run to a top 5 finish LTO

That leaves us with a short list of three – Velox, Russian Realm and Heavy Metal.

With Russian Realm doubtful we are left with the top two in the betting. These horses are those that best match the profiles of previous winners since 1997.

Trends selections: Velox @7/1 and Heavy Metal @9/1

3.40pm King George Stakes 5f

Caspian Prince looks a tad overpriced @28/1 given he has some decent form on downhill tracks including a win in the Epsom dash earlier this year.

This is an obvious step up in class but he is a speedy type who should be suited by the track and must have an each-way shout if the rain stays away (best form on good to firm).

Demora is another who brings good handicap form to the table and is worth a crack at this level. On form then Extortionist looks the one to beat but is priced up accordingly.

Tropics also has top notch Group form including a career best runner up spot to Slade Power in the July Cup.

However, this is his first attempt at the minimum trip.

Hamza has a Group 3 win to this name three starts back (Es Que Love back in 2nd) and will most likely attempt to make all. He looks a solid back-to-lay proposition.

Last year’s winner Moviesta has failed to go on this year but his figures over 5f on good or good to firm are excellent. I think he will run well.

Likeliest winner: Extortionist @9/2
Alternative: Moviesta @8/1
Each-way alternatives: Caspian Prince @28/1

Finally don’t forget to keep an eye out for the 2yo Godolphin runners at Newmarket this Friday and Saturday. We have previously highlighted their performance at the July course over the last 5 years and they have proved very profitable to follow for this column in the last 4 weeks.

Nick Hardman

Analyse Yourself

Carrying on from yesterday, today I want to talk about step 2 in the plan for preparing yourself to win at betting.

At the end of the week we'll put together everything we've covered in the week into a plan that you can work to get yourself on a professional footing.

Step 2 is – Analyse Your Own Personal Emotional/ Psychological Make Up

Most bettors don't like losers and find it hard to tolerate long losing runs.

Even if they have done their research and they know that their system or method has had a losing run of, say, 10 in the past. They can still crack and give up after a losing run of 5 or 6.

If you can't stand losing runs then you need to be looking at high strike rate lower priced selections in the methods that you use.

Betting at shorter odds at a higher strike rate may give you the confidence to bet with higher stakes. But again you need to think about how much you could lose and still remain calm and focused on your goal.

Obviously with higher stakes it doesnt take much of a losing run to run up a big deficit.

I know bettors who will risk a grand or £1500 on a short priced selection, but if 2 or 3 of those lose on the bounce you need balls of steel to stay cool and maintain your judgement.

The important thing is to stick within your comfort zone. Ideally you should be betting at a level such that if you lost 10 bets on the bounce that it wouldnt effect your judgement. And wouldnt effect your life at all.

If you had a £1000 bank for example, how would you feel if you staked £2 and lost that bet?

Not bothered I guess. What about if you staked £5 and lost, how would you feel? What if you staked £2 and had a losing streak and lost 10 bets in a row, £20 loss.

I guess you wouldn’t be too bothered if you knew the system had a good history, so you need to look at losing streaks and factor in the level of loss that you could comfortably tolerate.

Greed plays an important factor for those that are in the 98% bracket. Greed can be a very subtle emotion, and we all operate greed to some degree now and then. With betting however, it is very important to isolate greed completely, because greed is your enemy, and it is out to trip you up.

The best way to keep greed in check is to assume that your bet is going to lose, and to ensure that the stake amount is set according to your emotional make up. Once you have this level set, you are ready to continue.

The reason it is important to bet within your emotional comfort zone, is so that you don't pull out of a losing streak prematurely.

Most people when they bet, pullout halfway through or near the end of the losing streak. They determine that the system or the tipster is no good, but in fact, quite often, the bettor pulls out prematurely and suffers from a reduced bank.

With proven successful systems, the losing streak usually pulls out back into a profit, and continues to make an increased profit throughout the year.

For those that have pulled out however, have ended up with a loss and have not enjoyed the profitable return that the system has made. Those that bet according to their emotional/ psychological make-up, are more likely to stick to the system to see the losing streak through.

My thanks go to the Betting Insiders Club who inspired this weeks posts – Find out more about the Betting Insiders Club at http://bettinginsiders.com

Todays Selection ourtesy of the Betting Insiders Club.

Yesterday’s selection Kopkap faded out of it at the business end of the race.

For today we are turning to our stats guru Mark Foley’s new “Owner Watch” angle with the 3yo Agerzam who would most likely have won last time out but for meeting interference in the final furlong. The owner has a 39% strike rate at the track in the last few years.

Agerzam (2030 Kemp) 7/4 – Totesport/Paddy Power

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