Tag Archives: Cumani

Breeders Cup Tips

It's Friday and so we have our regular look at the weekend racing from Nick Hardman of Betting School Insiders (https://dailypunt.com/nickhardman )

We had another decent return last week with Kleo faring best of our Cumani runners at Doncaster, winning her race at 11/2. Wishfull Thinking (adv 14/1) was one of our each-way alternatives in the Old Roan Chase with the caveat his chances would increase with the arrival of any rain.

As it happens he bolted up on good ground with not a drop of rain in sight. This Friday we will take a look at the Breeders’ Cup and we have a selection from the Charlie Hall Chase meeting from Wetherby.

To me the Breeders’ Cup is one of those meetings where a small wager can increase your enjoyment of watching it, rather than it being a serious punting mission like Royal Ascot or the Cheltenham Festival. The main action takes place on Saturday but one horse I like runs on Friday in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.

Much is often made of the European runners being better on turf than their American counterparts but on this occasion I am siding with the home filly Lady Eli. Unbeaten in two starts she has had the same prep as her trainer’s previous winner in this race, namely Maram in 2008, including a win in the recognised trial race The Miss Grillo Stakes at Belmont. She has the finishing kick to go close here. Osaila looks the best of the Europeans.

Goldencents looks to have a massive chance in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile and I am happy to have him onside at 5/4. He has most things in his favour here and for once I will side with a favourite as he bids to defend his crown.

Breeders Cup Friday
Juvenile Fillies Turf – Lady Eli @13/2
Dirt Mile – Goldencents @5/4

On Saturday Silviniaco Conti should win the Charlie Hall Chase in what is an above average renewal, but 5/4 is plenty short enough for what is essentially a prep run.

Earlier on the card I will have a couple of quid on Aurore D’Estruval in the mares hurdle. She is a course and distance winner and acquitted herself well in two subsequent starts at Haydock (subsequent Fred Winter winner Hawk High tailed off in last place) and at Aintree when 5th in a Grade 1 won by Guitar Pete. This is a Listed race and back against her own sex she can go well.

Back to the USA and I make Dank the standout bet in the Filly and Mare Turf. She has been kept in training this season with this race her prime objective. Not only will she get her firm ground but she will once again have the services of Ryan Moore, undoubtedly the best jockey on the planet right now. Add to that the positive vibes from the Stoute yard about her well-being and she has to be top of most people’s shortlist. I make her my NAP for Saturday’s action.

Elsewhere, Daredevil could take some pegging back in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and 3/1 looks a fair price.

Saturday

Wetherby 2.05pm – Aurore D’Estruval

Breeders’ Cup
Filly and Mare Turf – Dank @9/4
Juvenile – Daredevil @3/1

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Weekend Racing Tips

Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders (https://dailypunt.com/nickhardman) keeps sending winners our way and this week he looks at today's Doncaster card and tomorrows Aintree feature…

Weekend Racing Tips

Our mud-larks ran well at Ascot last weekend with Madame Chiang being the highlight winning at 12/1.  Betfair backers would have been nicely rewarded with an SP of 18.

Not a lot of action this Friday, but I want to highlight the performance of Luca Cumani at Doncaster this season and he has a number of runners this afternoon.

We will also be taking a look at the Old Roan Chase from Aintree that takes centre stage on Saturday.

Luca Cumani is having a solid season and one track where he has done particularly well is Doncaster.  Here are his statistics at the Yorkshire course this season to date:

Runs: 21

Wins: 8

Strike rate (% win): 38%

Strike rate (% place): 62%

Profit to level £1 stakes: £13.51

On Friday he runs:

1.50pm Dreamlike

3.30pm Sleeper King @25/1 (e/w ¼ odds, 5 places)

4.05pm Norway Cross @6/1

4.40pm Kleo @5/1

Dreamlike is a 2yo and Cumani has not had a 2yo winner at the course in the last 5 seasons (0-11). 

I would not be overly concerned by that statistic as he has only had the two 2yo runners up at Doncaster this season.

Overall his juveniles are 7-34 this year at a highly respectable strike rate of 21%. 

Dreamlike made an encouraging debut and there is likely more to come.  The market could be quite informative of her chances and she could go well at a price. 

Sleeper King has failed to progress from a promising 2yo campaign and he has shown nothing in 4 starts this year (form figures 0000).  However, this is his first run for Cumani having previously been with Kevin Ryan.  Caution is advised if you decide to back him. 

Norway Cross is interesting up in trip having won at Windsor last time out and Kleo is still unexposed after two wins this season and a LTO fourth in a Listed race at Yarmouth in September.  These two appear to have the best chances of the quartet.

The jumps season is starting to gather momentum and this Saturday sees the Old Roan Chase at Aintree. 

This year’s renewal looks wide open and a case can be made for many including current favourite Uxizandre, Module, Rajdhani Express and last year’s winner Conquisto. 

At the prices I think there is a bit of value in Conquisto to retain his crown if the ground stays good. 

A lot of the higher rated horses in this race will have other targets such as the Paddy Power Gold Cup and the Cheltenham festival whereas this looks like Conquisto’s main target. 

He is 4lbs lower than when winning this last year and I think he could well have been laid out for this. 

As an each-way alternative then Astracad could outrun his price, especially as he seems to save some of his better performances for Aintree (including a decent 2nd in this last year). 

In 2013 he ran in a 2 ½ mile handicap chase at the Cheltenham October meeting a week before lining up for this.  He has followed exactly the same path this year and with the Twiston-Davies horses running well he can give each-way backers a decent run for their money. 

If the rain arrives and there is a change in the going to soft then Wishfull Thinking would have to enter calculations.  His last 3 wins have come on heavy, soft and soft going.  He is rated 162 but he won twice off this mark last season.

Saturday Aintree 3.00pm

Conquisto @7/1 (if the ground remains good)

Each-way alternatives: Astracad @14/1 & Wishfull Thinking @14/1 (soft or worse) 

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Profitable Yarmouth Trainers

I guess there are a lot of race courses that are out on a limb, as it were, geographically.

Yarmouth is local to me and I know what a pain it is to travel there from anywhere else in the country. I also remember years ago there was a system doing the rounds based on betting the runners of Newmarket based trainers.

The theory being that the big HQ yards would try out their hotshots at Yarmouth because it is relatively local to them.

So this morning I thought I'd run a report on top performing trainers at Yarmouth and see what I come up with.

Amazingly there is a trainer with a 40% strike rate (Ed Walker) at Yarmouth from all runs and another with a 39% strike rate (Mrs L Wadham).

Profitable Yarmouth Trainers

Below I have listed all the trainers with a 20% or higher strike rate, who have had more than 10 runners at Yarmouth.

Baker, George
Bravery, G C
Burke, Mrs K
Carson, Anthony
Cecil, H R A (Lady Cecil!)
Cumani, L M
Fahey, R A
Haggas, W J
Hannon, R
Haynes, A B
Hutchinson, Alison
McBride, P J
Meehan, B J
Mohammed, Ismail
Noseda, J
Powell, B G
Varian, Roger
Wadham, Mrs L
Walker, Ed
Wall, C F
Williams, Ian

Following these trainers at Yarmouth betting all horses they send would have returned a whopping 51% Return on Investment at SP over the last 3 1/2 years.

Today the following runners are trained by a trainer from our high strike rate list above…

5.50 Orlando Rogue
6.50 Censorious (trained by Ed Walker), Hamble & Sermarel
7.20 Venus Marina
7.50 Peacemaker
8.20 Piemans Girl, Roring Samson
8.50 Vodka Chaser

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Investec Oaks Tips

It's Oaks day and if you havn't already you can read Nick's full assessment of the race here https://dailypunt.com/epsom-oaks-selections/

But if you just want the quick summary here it is…

Only 3 favourites have won this race in the last 10 years!

All of the last 10 winners had raced over further than a mile.

Six of the last 10 winners won last time out.

15 of the last 17 winners had a top three finish last time out.

Intimal – Fails the last time out win stat, She has form on good-to-soft, good-to-firm and on tapeta where she won the UAE 100 Guineas and the UAE Oaks over 10 furlongs.

Both were Group 3 races but she followed that up with an excellent third in the 1000 Guineas at the Rowley Mile. Of those at the front of the market I think she represents the best value at 10/1.

Madam Chiang – The lightly raced Madame Chiang is another fascinating runner, especially if the rain gets into the ground between now and race day. (Going is Good today)

She has only seen a racecourse twice; winning her maiden over a mile on soft ground at Yarmouth before winning the Musidora over 10f at York on her seasonal reappearance (also on soft ground).

With plenty of improvement possible and bred to stay the extra 2 furlongs, she also represents value at the current odds of 16/1.

Volume – Luca Cumani’s Volume has possibilities of making the frame. She has yet to finish out of the 3 in 8 races to date, although two of those were handicaps. She also won the trial at Newbury which is the same race where Izzy Top beat Dancing Rain in 2012.

Those two went on to contest the Oaks and finished 3rd and 1st at 25/1 and 20/1 respectively. She has to improve on what she has done so far but if the ground has some juice in it then she looks all about stamina and could be staying on at the end.

Note: Nick's assessment was that both Madame Chiang and Volume would prefer some give in the ground

Best value: Intimal @ 10/1 Bet Victor
Each-way alternative: Madame Chiang @16/1 Paddy Power
Lively outsider: Volume @20/1 (each-way) Sky Bet

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