Tag Archives: decimal odds

Arbitrage Betting

Today's guest article is from Betting Insiders contributor Mark Jenkins.

Mark is a full time arber and targets a weekly tax free profit of £1,000 from his arbs.

Here is an excerpt from his article in this months Betting Insiders report…

There are many arbitrage techniques, but generally speaking the more you can break an outcome down the better your chances of finding a money making opportunity.

One of my personal favourites is using HT/FT odds to cover the draw.

For example one recent match saw the best odds available on the draw as 12/5 (3.40 decimal).

By taking the best available HT/FT odds you could achieve 3.51.

You are only interested in the draw at full time so you need to cover the outcomes as follows.

1) Home team at halftime draw at fulltime.
2) Draw at halftime draw at fulltime.
3) Away team at halftime draw at fulltime.

Then whatever is happening at halftime the draw is covered at fulltime.

The odds were, 18/1 (19.00), 9/2 (5.50) and 19/1 (20.00).

It is easy to calculate, again we need to turn the odds to a % so 100/19 + 100/5.5 +100/20 = 28.44% then divide 100 by the % to get the relevant decimal odds 100/28.44% = 3.516.

Now that might not seem like much of an improvement but in arbitrage terms it makes a 1% trade into a 2.5% one and that is a BIG improvement.

Making money through arbitrage is just one way that I make money, there are the regular bonuses offered by the bookmakers to take advantage of, and the little incentives, such as the 1% cash back currently offered by Skrill (formerly Moneybookers), where just by depositing into a bookmaker 1% is given back by way of points that can be cashed in for actual money, this is another way of profiting from your arbitrage activities, making a 0% arb into a profitable trade if you have to deposit.

One of my arbitrage colleagues actually moves his money around every Monday morning to make profits from this incentive.

You can read more of Mark's strategies for risk free cash, including how he made a risk free 75% on an arb, in this months Betting Insiders report.

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Today's Selection courtesy of Betting Insiders

Redc 1735 Sorcellerie (Gen 11/2)

A Value Bet Explained

Before I hand over to Kieran for part two of his Value Betting series of articles I just want to mention Racing Dossier.

If you downloaded the free Racing Dossier software then today you can get the first system to use with the software.

This system made 171 points profit in 2012, 15 points so far in 2013 and has a 29% strike rate.

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Today’s article has been written by Kieran Ward, professional gambler, tipster and betting blogger over at www.makeyourbettingpay.co.uk
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“We have found value on a bet when we secure a price that exceeds the true probability of that outcome occurring.”

Let’s look at a very simple event to demonstrate the principle:

We are betting on a coin toss. There are two possible outcomes of a coin toss: heads comes up or tails comes up. Either of those is equally likely to occur on any one coin toss, therefore the probability for either one is 50%.

A probability of 50% expressed in fractional odds is 1/1 or even money. In decimal odds that same probability would be expressed as 2.0.

If you were to take those odds about either event occurring in a coin toss, in the long run you would break even, neither making or losing money (though in the short term you could easily come unstuck due to general variance).

In other words, at odds of even money you have no edge – and are therefore receiving no value.

Even worse than that, a bookmaker would price up either event at 10/11 (1.91) to lock in his profit margin (known as their over-round).

On average we would achieve the following results backing heads at 10/11 (1.91) for £1 a time over 1000 bets:

500 winners: +£455
500 losers: -£500
Overall P/L: -£45

Clearly not a course of action we would want to pursue!

Conversely, if we managed to find a bookmaker prepared to offer 2.1 (11/10) about either outcome in a coin toss on average we would achieve the following results:

500 winners: + £550
500 losers: – £500
Overall P/L: + £50

Much better! The second set were value bets – we were getting a price that exceeded the true probability of the event occurring! We would be very foolish not to avail ourselves of that price, repeatedly and to the largest stakes we could afford (while applying sound money management principles, of course).

Unfortunately, we are unlikely to find any bookmaker offering 11/10 about a fixed probability event such as heads coming up in a coin toss. The true probability is fixed and therefore easily calculated. (If anybody ever does find such a bookmaker, please introduce me!).

Luckily, this is not the case for all events a punter might want to assess.

Tomorrow, I will be looking at some more complex events that are much more difficult for bookmakers to price accurately – and consequently offer us far greater opportunities for finding value!

Today's Selection

4.05 Lingfield Lady Mango – each way bet – 15/2 Bet 365

Profit From the Odds That Produce Goals

Today we have a guest article from Clive Keeling of What Really Wins Money.

If you have something interesting or profitable that you would like to share with readers of the Daily Punt, do send us an email, we are always willing to share winning ideas with our readers.

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The next time you peruse the football betting coupon, pay close attention to the odds. They can sometimes tell a story and provide ready-made clues as to what the bookmakers (or market-makers at Betfair) expect to occur in a given match.

Here are some odds which I have found to produce certain scorelines, or a certain number of goals:

Sub 1.20

1.2 in decimal odds equates to 1/5 in fractional odds.

Any team quoted at under 1.2 in odds (particularly when they are playing at home) equates to goals. (The team will usually score 3 or 4 goals minimum, with a possibility of a win to nil.)

Using a recent weekend, here are some examples of Sub 1.2 odds matches and their resultant score lines.

2.30pm – Dortmund v G Furth – 1.19 home

Correct Score Betting

In this instance, the odds were close. Dortmund did score 3 goals but their opponents managed a consolation goal.

5.30pm – Olympiakos v Kerkira – 1.18 home

Football Betting

Here the 3 goals minimum was nearly reached, but Olympiakos did keep a clean sheet.

6.45pm – Ajax v VVV – 1.13 home

Football fixed odds

Another 2-0 match and another clean sheet.

7pm – Barcelona v Zaragoza – 1.1 home

Over under 2.5

Barcelona scored 3 goals minimum, but did concede a consolation goal.

9pm – Real Madrid v Ath Bilbao – 1.17 home

Match Odds

Real Madrid scored 5 goals, and did concede just 1 goal.

These odds give you a framework – a guide around which to work. The simplest way to validate the odds is to look at the head-to-heads. I want to show you the head-to-heads of the two teams which won 2-0.

Olympiakos head-to-heads v Kerkyra – last six matches:

08.04.2012 D1Olympiakos Pireus 0-1 AO Kerkyra
11.12.2011    D1AO Kerkyra 0-4 Olympiakos Pireus
09.01.2011  D1AO Kerkyra 0-2 Olympiakos Pireus
11.09.2010  D1Olympiakos Pireus 2-0 AO Kerkyra
22.04.2007 D1Olympiakos Pireus 3-1 AO Kerkyra
02.12.2006 D1AO Kerkyra 0-2 Olympiakos Pireus

The clean sheet looks a distinct possibility from the head-to-heads, but Olympiakos have won 2-0 three
times in the last six head-to-heads.

Ajax head-to-heads v Venlo – last six matches:

02.05.2012 D1AFC Ajax 2-0 VVV Venlo
21.08.2011 D1VVV Venlo 2-2 AFC Ajax
20.02.2011 D1AFC Ajax 1-0 VVV Venlo
28.11.2010 D1VVV Venlo 0-2 AFC Ajax
11.04.2010 D1AFC Ajax 7-0 VVV Venlo
20.09.2009 D1VVV Venlo 0-4 AFC Ajax

In the last four head-to-heads, Ajax have only managed to score a maximum of 2 goals.

Compare this with the likes of Real Madrid in their last six meetings against Athletic Bilbao:

02.05.2012 D1Athletic Bilbao 0-3 Real Madrid
22.01.2012 D1Real Madrid 4-1 Athletic Bilbao
09.04.2011 D1Athletic Bilbao 0-3 Real Madrid
20.11.2010 D1Real Madrid 5-1 Athletic Bilbao
08.05.2010 D1Real Madrid 5-1 Athletic Bilbao
16.01.2010 D1Athletic Bilbao 1-0 Real Madrid

Historically, Real Madrid have scored 5-5-3-4-3 against Ath Bilbao. This is very much in keeping with a quote of 1.17 isn’t it?

So what do you do to make money from this information?

Once you have shortlisted sub 1.20 teams, and validated simply by looking at head-to-heads, then look to find a value bet. Value bets in these instances can include any of the following:

✓✓ Over 4.5 goals, with one eye on trading.

✓✓ The possibility for a player to score a hat-trick (I would limit myself to teams with world-class strikers such as Van Persie, Messi and Ronaldo).

✓✓ Dutching a correct score. Look to start at 3-0.

These correct scores are decently priced, which means you can back up to 3 and still profit.

✓✓ Total goals bet for one team. This is a fairly new market but the odds offered are far more attractive
than the match odds.

This second set of odds usually results in both teams scoring and a possible tight win. The odds in question in this second example are 1.7 (or 4/5 in fractional odds) for the away team.

When you spot these odds for the away side, immediately think:

✓✓ Score draw, most probably 1-1

✓✓ The possibility that if the away side wins, it will be a tight one-goal win: 1-2; 0-1 – that kind of
scoreline. Or a possibility that the home side could win, again by a very, very tight scoreline.

You will recall that these were the kinds of odds I used to create my treble bets, which I then layed at Betfair using their multiples.

Here are some examples:

9.30am – Volga Nyzhnyi Novgorod v Spartak Moscow – 1.67 away

Football multiples

Both sides scored and 1-1 resulted. The odds here just peeked below 1.7.

3pm – Reading v Everton – 1.86 away

Football betting

Again, both teams score in this match and Reading only win courtesy of a penalty: another tight match.

3pm – West Brom v Chelsea – 2.04 away

Football Pools

In this match, both teams scored and the home side won a very tight match indeed.

The away odds between 1.7 and just over evens (2.0 decimal) seem to be the ideal odds in which to assume that both sides have a chance of scoring a goal and winning, ideally by 2-1 or 1-2.

How can you profit here?

How about backing 1-1 pre-match, and profiting by trading if a 1-1 arises during the match. Laying the
away side is always an option. Horse racing layers would be delighted at an ability to lay a horse as low as 1.7–2.00 and have a good chance of success.

Why not back both sides to score? Or for you traders, lay the team that scores first? The hope here, of course, is that we reach a 1-1 scoreline rather than a 2-0. And how about those who still play the bookies’ football coupons and the Pools, where score draws are welcome?

Incidentally, for those of you interested in the Football Pools, they now have a dedicated website at http://www.footballpools.com. This is something that piques my interest and I’ll be trying to discover some strategies we can use to profit from this new-look Football Pools.

Today's Selection

Chepstow 1.55 Always Bold – eachway bet – 7/1 Will Hill

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