Tag Archives: decision

SP Before the Off

Grey Horse BotToday we have the first post from new contributor Malcolm Pett.

Malcolm explains how we can know the Betfair SP and bet based on Betfair SP before the off!

Here's Malcolm…

Just about every system you come across on the web would first have been created using past data.

If this is the case then the result will be shown using either SP (Industry Standard starting price) or BSP (Betfair Starting Price) for results.

There is nothing really wrong with this because it is the only way of giving people the chance to check the results they are seeing as being accurate.

But where it does cause an issue and pose a problem is when it is a price sensitive system or a system that relies on being on a particular ranked runner, like the favourite.

BSP and SP are calculated at the off.

You may think by looking at the ranking a few seconds before the off will tell you who was favourite, second favourited etc…

But often this isn't the case. The BSP/SP announced ranking can be different to the just before the off rank.

A short test we did with Betfair some time back clearly showed that the rankings can differ by as much as 1 or 2 runners in every 10.

Maybe this doesn’t sound too bad…

…But when you consider you could be following hundreds or even thousands of bets over the course of a year…this could easily change the results you were expecting or the results being advertised.

The same is true of price. The price before the off is often different to BSP/SP causing even more inaccuracies in your system.

So what can you do to make sure you are on the correct runner or within the correct price range?

You may already know that just as Betfair's market goes in-play the BSP price and ranking is made available through their API.

So we have developed a great feature on the Grey Horse Bot that allows the bot to read the BSP price and Ranking as soon as it happens.

This gives the Grey Horse Bot user the opportunity to choose which ranked runner to bet on or to only place a bet into the market if it is within the price range you require.

When you create your own system it should be part of your testing to determine if you get better prices before the off or in-play. You can test both automatically with the Grey Horse Bot.

Thank you for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm

——

Malcolm is the creator of a number of Betfair automated betting products like the Grey Horse Bot. He also writes articles for Betfair. Apart from automation Malcolm likes creating and testing systems and believes his readers should have all the statistical facts available to make proper informed decisions.

If you have any questions about bots or automation please add a comment and we'll try and answer them.

Favourite Average Price Rise

Today we have our regular weekly column from Malcolm Pett of GreyHorseBot.com
======

In the last couple or articles we have been looking at the results from an interactive test we have been doing over at the Grey Horse Bot website.

Part of this test is also to discover if it is better to be on all the selections or to stop at the first winner of the day.

I picked 220 or above as my rating figure (see later why this may still be to low).

It hasn’t been the best of weeks for this number and it was only because of a 6.3 winner a couple of days ago that we are still showing any profit for this month.

This is a bit of a shame as it was a lot more positive last week…

…But that’s racing for you.

I am a statistical type of person so I don’t like to blame the weather.

And I do know this…

Favourites average prices tend to drop slightly in the winter.

I am not sure why but it could be that there are less races so they are more heavily backed than they normally would be.

But a quick check on the averages over the last couple of years shows that from the height in the summer of 3.5 (sometimes higher) in the winter this can drop to around 3.1.

And although the strike rate of this particular system has dropped off slightly…

…The amount of favourites winning is slightly better than the norm this month.

Which again, strangely, seems to happen around the winter months.

But back to the system test…

I am still not convinced that SAW is the best way to go but it is going to take more testing to actually make that decision.

If you crank the ratings figure up to 240 then things look a little better for all selections and it may be my choice of 220 was still a little low.

This will probably be my last report about this test for a few weeks.

Unless something amazing happens!

You can see the results from this test and get the daily selections here.

Thanks
Malcolm
The Grey Horse Bot

GreyHorseBot.com

Today's Selection

2:00 Lingfield Ershaad – win bet 5/6 Bet Victor

Place Ratings continued…

This week Malcolm Pett continues with the development of his place ratings.

Over to Malcolm…

Last week I introduced my new place rating system which has a number of ratings that you can combine in different ways to find selections to place.

In this article I want to go into a little more detail about the ratings and introduce a further 2 ratings which may help a little more.

One of the new columns is marked “MR” which is a little cocktail of mine made up of various bits of information.

I don’t like runners with a minus (-) figure in this column and generally use it to identify the strong runners in the race.

Place Ratings

The “Rat 1” column is another strength indicator which I usually look at like this:

0 – Very weak and probably a no bet.
1 to 9 still very week but will look at it combined with other figures.
10 and above is best with into the 30’s being very strong.

I never take a “Qlf 1” selection if it is a minus (-) figure.

50 and above is better although if all the runners are less than this, I may consider the selection.

5 or above is my favourite in “Qlf 2”. I really don’t like anything under 4. A score of 7 tends to be very strong.

I never take a 0 in “Qlf 3” and 1’s are not my favourite either and I really like my runner to be top or equalled top whenever possible.

The “Rating” column is a combination of Qlf1 to Qlf 3 and can be used on its own.

A runner with a score of over 100 is certainly one that should be looked at.

The “NS” rating is another new rating and a score of 10 or better points towards an interesting selection.

These are just guides but they give you some idea of how I feel about each column.

It’s actually interesting because I love statistics but I get a lot of enjoyment using the ratings on a new day and trying to figure out which selections I may go for.

It’s so easy when looking at results to imagine you would have or you wouldn’t have used a selection….

…But it is so different when you are going through the race card in the morning and trying to make a decision on what selections to use.

I tend to stick to the top 2 or 3 ranked runners.

I know they don’t always win or place but I feel I get more success from them than I do other runners.

Although I will admit I haven’t really studied outsiders yet.

I generally look through the cards first of all to see if there are any selections that stand out.

Another method that I like to use is to score a runner based on if it has the highest or joint highest number in a column.

Again only sticking to the top ranked runners I will give 1 point for each column where they score highest or joint highest.

3 or higher is worth considering for a place where a score of 5 or 6, I may consider for a win.

Have a look yourself here.

http://greyhorsebot.co.uk/artview.asp?pnum=98

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm

The Grey Horse Bot

Today's Selection

1.50 Wetherby Tiptoeaway – 7/1 Bet Victor

More Perth Profits?

Our Gordon Elliott approach paid off again yesterday with two winners at 7/1 and 2/1 from 7 runners for a 4 point profit for a 57% return on the days investment.

Gordon Elliott has another 7 runners today, there are a couple of interesting factors that might effect your decision to bet.

First off Tico ran yesterday, started favourite and finished 23 lengths last.

The high level stats for all horses running in National Hunt races one day after their last race is 13% strike rate from 583 that have tried in the last 10 years.

The strike rate for Gordon Elliott trained runners that have run after one day is 23%.

The strike rate for horses that ran one day ago in a hurdle and today run in a chase is 20% with a 62% ROI.

Gordon Elliott has done this twice and one of those runners won.

Before I looked at the stats I was thinking I would drop Tico from my days bets, but having checked the numbers I think I'll leave him in.

The other runner that stands out is Crown Theatre at 40/1.

Gordon Elliott has had 18 runners at Perth that started at 22/1 or bigger, none have won!

Here is the full list of runners, so let's see if we can build on yesterdays profits…

14:45:00 Perth 2 Landau (IRE) – 11/2 Bet Victor
15:20:00 Perth 1 I C Gold (IRE) – 4/1 Bet Victor
15:20:00 Perth 3 Pumped Up Kicks (IRE) – 2/1 Sky Bet
15:55:00 Perth 3 Crown Theatre (IRE) – 40/1 Bet 365
17:00:00 Perth 2 Goal (IRE) – 4/1 Skybet
17:30:00 Perth 2 Tico (IRE) – 4/1 Sky Bet
18:00:00 Perth 4 Iffjack (IRE) – 8/1 Bet Victor

By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more information

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.

Close