Tag Archives: decisions

Football and Racing Tips

I had a bet last night for today's Cheltenham meeting that demonstrates how far you can beat the market by following tipsters who do their own race assessments rather than waiting for markets to form and letting those markets influence their decisions.

At 5pm yesterday the Racing consultants sent their members a note telling them to get on a horse that was available at 8/1 and that on their assessment should be much shorter.

I had my little tenner on with Bet 365 and now the horse is 5/1 with Bet 365 and best priced 11/2.

This horse might lose, but to me it will be remembered as a good bet whether it wins or loses because it is my strong opinion that you should judge your bets by how much you beat starting price not by whether they win or lose.

This might sound crazy to some readers. But others will know that if you keep beating starting price by big margins that the profits will take care of themselves.

I'm going to give you the bet and the full assessment in a minute, but first I'd like to recommend that whether it wins or loses that if you are serious about winning that you join the Racing Consultants service.

These guys send out bets like this one on a regular basis and they beat the market.

http://racingconsultants.co.uk

By the way they sent another one at 5.20, but I'm not allowed to give that one, but if you join them you can get immediate access.

Here's the race assessment and bet…

2.25 FREEBETS.COM TROPHY CHASE (2M5F)

“Little Jon impressed me enough as a hurdler last year despite his build and background suggesting he’d be much better over fences, and he proved the point at the first time of asking at Newton Abbot in October, giving weight and a beating to the Paul Nicholls-trained Solar Impulse.

That preceded a trio of runs in higher company here, and the bottom line is that the long-striding son of Pasternak hasn’t beaten another rival.

That said, he actually ran a cracker when a close third over 2m in November, and has crashed out when leading on his next two starts.

Despite those aberrations, he appeals as a pretty sound jumper, if inclined to take the occasional fence (or indeed wing) on.

The upside of his failures is that he’s not revealed the full extent of his ability, and therefore the handicapper hasn’t been as severe as he might have been, accepting that an opening mark of 140 is no gimme.

Main opposition comes primarily in the shape of Easter Day for Paul Nicholls, and he can’t be ruled out of calculations, for all his odds will be skinny enough.

More interesting at the forecast prices is Annacotty, who was second in the novice handicap on this card last year. He was another who couldn’t cope with the demands of the Hennessy first time out, but he’s reportedly been perked up by a spell hunting, and also has cheekpieces fitted, so should have no excuses.

He was a Grade 1 winner last year, and that fact shouldn’t be overlooked.

2.25 Chel – 2pts win Little Jon @ 8/1 (Bet365)”

As mentioned above current best price is 11/2 with Skybet, Bet Victor, Paddy Power

Football Perm

We had a win last week with The Alternative Punters Syndicate (Free Trial Here)
and this week I've gone with their home wins perm…

Top Rated ‘Best 6 Homes'
(Perm any 5 from 6 plus all 6 = 7 bets)
TOTTENHAM
NORWICH
WATFORD
WOLVES
MK DONS
BARNET
The best overall odds* for the ‘Best 6 Homes' are available with…

Coral

Goodwood System

You know I'm a fan of systems.

Mainly that's because I can follow some strict rules and the system can make betting decisions for me.

Most of the systems I create can be automated by a racing database and once I've created them then the selections are just sent to me each day.

But I'm aware that I could probably be making more money if I used systems that were not created from data that is available to everybody.

In the old days I would spend hours, days even weeks back checking a system idea with my old copies of the Racing Post or Sporting Life.

And in some ways winning was easier then, because by putting in the hours with old papers I was doing something that was too much effort for many punters.

And that is always the way. If you put in more work, or if you use data that is not available to the betting public then you are more likely to win because you can exploit an angle that is not being used by the majority of bettors.

Another way to create winning systems is from years of experience and record keeping of winning bets.

Analysing past records can show you where your profit comes from and allow you to simplify the selection method and boil it down into a winning system.

There will always be more profit in a system like this because it is bloody hard and relies on the initial skill to select winners and on the patience to analyse years of real bets.

I've been reminded of all of this recently by Carl Nicholson of Value Backing who has put together a selection of what he is calling Pro Grade Betting Systems (including a Glorious Goodwood system)

You can read all about them here www.valuebacking.com/99-of-betting-systems-are-doomed/

Today's Selection

Galway 7:15 Expensive Taste – each way bet 12\1

SP Before the Off

Grey Horse BotToday we have the first post from new contributor Malcolm Pett.

Malcolm explains how we can know the Betfair SP and bet based on Betfair SP before the off!

Here's Malcolm…

Just about every system you come across on the web would first have been created using past data.

If this is the case then the result will be shown using either SP (Industry Standard starting price) or BSP (Betfair Starting Price) for results.

There is nothing really wrong with this because it is the only way of giving people the chance to check the results they are seeing as being accurate.

But where it does cause an issue and pose a problem is when it is a price sensitive system or a system that relies on being on a particular ranked runner, like the favourite.

BSP and SP are calculated at the off.

You may think by looking at the ranking a few seconds before the off will tell you who was favourite, second favourited etc…

But often this isn't the case. The BSP/SP announced ranking can be different to the just before the off rank.

A short test we did with Betfair some time back clearly showed that the rankings can differ by as much as 1 or 2 runners in every 10.

Maybe this doesn’t sound too bad…

…But when you consider you could be following hundreds or even thousands of bets over the course of a year…this could easily change the results you were expecting or the results being advertised.

The same is true of price. The price before the off is often different to BSP/SP causing even more inaccuracies in your system.

So what can you do to make sure you are on the correct runner or within the correct price range?

You may already know that just as Betfair's market goes in-play the BSP price and ranking is made available through their API.

So we have developed a great feature on the Grey Horse Bot that allows the bot to read the BSP price and Ranking as soon as it happens.

This gives the Grey Horse Bot user the opportunity to choose which ranked runner to bet on or to only place a bet into the market if it is within the price range you require.

When you create your own system it should be part of your testing to determine if you get better prices before the off or in-play. You can test both automatically with the Grey Horse Bot.

Thank you for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm

——

Malcolm is the creator of a number of Betfair automated betting products like the Grey Horse Bot. He also writes articles for Betfair. Apart from automation Malcolm likes creating and testing systems and believes his readers should have all the statistical facts available to make proper informed decisions.

If you have any questions about bots or automation please add a comment and we'll try and answer them.

Today's Selection

Pontefract 2.30 Sakhee's Return – win bet – 10/3 Bet Victor

Winning Football Trends

I've just read a very interesting article in this months Secret Betting Club newsletter.

The article looks at fluctuations in the winning percentages of various football bets and at how these fluctuations might have effected your betting.

And probably more importantly how you might feel about your betting method and how your decisions about strategies may have been impacted.

For example, you could have backed every home team priced below 1.9 so far this season and made a nice profit of 25.73 points and a return on investment of 8.22%.

This is from betting in English Premiership, Championship, League One, League Two, Conference and Scottish Premiership.

That's the good news, the bad news is that only one other year has shown a profit since 2005 and that particular year made a 0.03% return on investment.

And it's likely that the same strategy would not make a profit again next year.

But if you just started this year betting teams that fall into this category, this season, you would likely think you were onto a winning method. Especially of the results continued to the end of the season and ended in profit.

Nest season you might be excited to get started and be prepared to bet at larger stakes in order to increase your profits.

Only to meet a losing year.

This article is 7 pages of detailed info with lots of interesting points, skipping ahead now to another interesting point that caught my eye.

That is how few matches have to go against you to turn a winning year into a losing year.

Here's a table shared in the article…

SBC Required Wins

 

You can see that if you are betting at odds of 2.0 that for every 100 bets if 55 win you will make a 10%, but if only 45 win you will make a 10% loss.

What's interesting is that when you move up to odds of 5.0, just 2 bets going for you or against you can make a huge difference.

Looking at the 5% profit column we can see that at 5.0 that 21 wins out of 100 will give us a 5% profit, but if that drops down to 19 wins we lose 5%.

You can read the full article in the February edition of the Secret Betting Club newsletter – Click Here

Today's Selection courtesy of Betting Insiders

15:00:00 Southwell Sin Bin – win bet – 13/8 Bet 365, Paddy Power, Sky Bet, Bet Victor

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