Tag Archives: disclaimer

Recovery staking a TABOO subject?

Today we have our regular Wednesday wisdom from Malcolm Pett, we also have selections for both the Headgear and Tongue Tie systems. Here's Malcolm…

Recovery staking for me has always been a taboo subject.

I have tried it in the past and lost a lot of money doing so.

When you mention recovery staking most people think about putting all your losses on the next bet and that’s the one to be AVOIDED at all costs.

Obviously a conversation about any form of staking needs a disclaimer…

Don’t do it unless you are fully aware of the cost!!!

Also there isn’t a staking system ever thought up that will allow you to make money from a system that doesn’t consistently make profit.

But I use one I actually call “Help recovery”.

It doesn’t usually recover all your losses but it seems to help.

I call it “1234..etc” staking and it works simply by…

“Increasing your stake by your ORGINAL stake every time you lose”

There are a few of things to clarify here…

It’s not doubling your stake (although bet 2 makes it look that way).

It won’t work with systems that don’t have a high strike rate.

The further you go into the sequence the less likely you are to recover your losses.

You need a stop loss setting.

Here is how it works.

1 is your original stake.

If you lose you go to 2 which is your original stake multiplied by 2.

If you lose again you go to 3 which is your original stake multiplied by 3.

And so on.

If you lose on 7 then you would have lost 28 points of your bank.

And you will need a 4/1 winner just to break even.

Which will be unlikely when used with a high strike system that this idea works best with.

So why use a staking system that won’t recover your losses?

With high strike systems you tend to get a mixture of very low prices and odds on prices.

You don’t tend to have long losing runs and so when this system does kick in it can often be for only 1 or 2 selections and the odd higher priced winner just seems to help boost up the profits.

I find with some systems this can be an extra 10 or more points a month.

A couple of tests we have been doing over at the Grey Horse Bot website have results sheets showing how this works.

Click here for an example.


Again please be warned that staking isn’t for everyone and you need to be aware of the risks.

I tend to use 7 as my maximum with this system and realise that if I hit that…

…then it is a month’s (or more) profit down the drain.

Also when using staking select a stake lower than you normal would.

1% or less of your bank.

Thanks
Malcolm

http://greyhorsebot.com

System Selections

With both of these systems I'm still paper trading, but I wanted to post the selections so you can follow along with the live test.

Tongue Tie System

14:55 Chepstow – Nervous Nineties – 150/1 Coral

First Time Headgear

14:35:00 Down Royal – Reality Dose – 16/1 Bet Victor

Today's Selection

14:20:00 Chepstow Champagne Express – win bet – 3/1 Bet 365

More Henderson Hurdlers

So yesterday we discovered that the profit in the last two years from Nicky Henderson's hurdlers all came from just two jockeys.

Today I want to look at race courses to see if the profit is coming from favoured tracks and first off I'm going to look only at the rides of Barry Geraghty.

The reason for this is that he takes the majority of the rides at the Henderson yard and if we could find some profit from his rides we would have a larger sample.

The trouble, I imagine, when you are a stable jockey is that you ride everything that you are available for so that has to include a lot of horses that have little chance of winning.

So what we need is some other indicator of when a horse has a chance because I'm sure Barry is as good as McCoy, but McCoy is called in when an owner wants somebody special, so that is an indicator itself that the horse has a solid chance.

I don't think that particular race tracks is the key we're looking for to unlock the profits from Barry Geraghty rides, so if you have a suggestion on what might be then drop it in the comments.

But for now we'll look at courses and see where that gets us.

The table below shows Barry Geraghty rides on Nicky Henderson trained hurdlers since January 2013 broken down by course and only showing those where there have been more than 10 runs.

Barry Geraghty by Course Table

 

Ok we can see that there are very impressive strike rates at the bottom four courses and strong profits at three of those so maybe that is a system itself?

Next I'm going to look at courses for all jockeys.

 

Henderson Hurdlers by Course Table

 

Now we see profit at Bangor, Doncaster, Huntingdon, Kempton, Sandown, Stratford and Uttoxeter (just).

Most of the profit comes from the same tracks with the additions having either small volume or small profit.

So I'm going to finish off today by telling you that since January 1st 2013 backing all Nicky Henderson hurdlers at Doncaster Kempton and Sandown would have produced a 30% strike rate from 111 bets and a huge 60% return on investment.

As they say in the finance adverts past results are not a guarantee of future gains or some such disclaimer, but I will be monitoring the Henderson hurdlers at these courses going forward.

Today's Selection

12.40 Southwell Bitaphon – win bet – 9/2 Betfred

Guaranteed Profits – Some Work Required

Raul Da SilvaTwo things for you today.

Both will make you money and both require some work.

One is free and is a pointer to making money from horse racing.

The other is a service that will require about 2 hours of your time daily but will make you money.  Guaranteed Profits!
(I should add the disclaimer that you have to do what he tells you to do to get guaranteed profits ;-))

I'll go into more detail about why this service works next week. For now you can check out the website here

Back to the main thing I want to tell you about today…

In any endeavor if you can tag onto a rising star then you can make money.

In horse racing that usually means spotting a horse with potential. Before the punters and pundits are on to it.

When you spot one of these horses. One that's going on to big things you can hang onto it's tail and make some great winning bets.

The problem is that you need a bit of an eye to catch them early and you need to watch a lot of racing.

But luckily racing is not all about horses. There's also trainers and jockeys to consider.

Although there are new trainers appearing and spotting a rising star can be profitable there's not exactly a big turnover of trainers.

But jockeys are a different matter. There's a new crop every year and a few rising stars each year.

Now apprentice jockeys have an advantage in that they have a claim that means they can carry less weight than a full jockey.

But the fact is that many apprentices aren't worth their claim, meaning even with the weight advantage they still hinder the chance of the horse.

But if you find a jockey with a claim who is as good as a regular jockey then you are onto something.

By way of example back in December one of your fellow readers suggested some jockeys worth following.

The list of four included…

Lucy Alexander – Has now  had 21 races and shows a level stakes profit of 24 points.

Ryan Clark – Claim down to 3lbs now turf profit 45 points (Big loss on All Weather)

(The other two were Brendan Powell (great jock but not a level stake profit) and William Twiston Davies (not many rides yet) )

Now the idea isn't that you follow these blindly, but if you are studying a race and you see for example that Ryan Clark is up then you can consider that that horse has a 3lb advantage.

If it's well in anyway then Ryan can make a difference.

I just had another email from Daniel yesterday where he suggested Raul Da Silva as another rising star.

Raul has 7 rides tonight at Wolverhampton.

Today's Selection

Huntingdon 2.10 Wise Move – Win Bet

 

 

 

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