Tag Archives: draw biases

Chester Draw Bias

As promised last week I'm going to share some stats about the draw at Chester which kicks off it's three day meeting today and which is on Channel Four.

We talked previously about draw biases not just effecting sprint races and about it being more about going around the bend.

Chester is all about the bend with the course being virtually a circle!

As we'll see in a minute the bias is all about the starting position in relation to the bend.

So here are the stats for the last 11 years for each starting stall.

 

Chester Starting Stall Stats

Click to Enlarge

What we see here is that the strike rate for Stall 1 is 19% and for Stall 2 is 18% the strike rate gradually decreases as the stall numbers increase, dropping as low as 2% albeit for lower numbers of runs.

Over the long term you can just back all Stall 1 and Stall 2 runners and make a profit at SP, the last four years have all been profitable.

The next table looks at Race Distance. (Stalls 1 & 2)

Chester Draw Bias by Distance

Click to Enlarge

Here we can see that the strike rate is highest at 5 furlongs, 5 1/2 furlongs and 6 furlongs.

But also at 1 mile 3 1/2 furlongs and 1 mile 4 1/2 furlongs.

Lets look at why that might be, with a look at the course layout.

Chester Race Course Layout

Click to Enlarge

 

What we can see here is that the 6 furlong start is right before a bend, the 5 furlong start is on the bend as is the 1 mile 4 furlong and the 1 mile 3 furlong.

All other distance start on the straight.

It's also worth noting that the 5 furlong races are not as profitable (ROI) as the others with the high strike rate and that will be because the Chester draw bias is well known and because most punters assume that it will be most effective at the sprint distance and so they over bet the low stalls in those races.

Today's Selection

Chester 3.15 Top Boy – eachway bet – 8/1 Paddy Power, Bet 365, Bet Victor

Image credits Horse Race Base, Racing Post

Pontefract Draw Bias

On July 9th 2013 I wrote an article about the Pontefract draw bias.

Since that time we've had various debates about how the bias doesnt exist (it does) and about how draw biases don't effect middle and long distance races (they do).

So with Pontefract racing today I thought I'd take a brief break from my odds on research to revisit the Pontefract facts.

Since we first wrote the article there have been 70 races at Pontefract.

Stall 2 has won 14 times, a strike rate of 20%.

Backing all stall 2 runners at industry SP has returned a profit of £338.80 to £10 stakes which is a return on investment of 48%.

34 of the stall 2 horses have finished in the first 3, so 48% have placed.

Included in that list of runners were two that started at 50/1 and two that started at 66/1, we should probably not be backing anything at those prices.

There have been some long losing runs, so there is no guarantee that we will win today, but over the long term we will be in front for as long as the bias exists and is under bet!

In fact the last 3 years have been very profitable.

Today's Selection

Pontefract 4.25 Mr Gallivanter – win bet – 5/1 Bet Victor, Sporting Bet

Handicap Draws

Did you get involved at Chester on Friday?

You will recall that we said stalls 1 and 2 were favoured, particularly over 5 furlongs, 6 furlongs, 1 mile 3 and 1 mile 4.

The results on Friday for the two 5 furlong races were a win for stall 1 at 4/1 and a win for stall 2 at 7/4.

And there was a race at 1 mile 4 furlongs which was won by the stall 1 horse at 7/2.

Saturday saw a 9/1 winner from stall 1 in the 6 furlong handicap, with stall 1 or 2 placing in the other two qualifying races.

Not everybody appreciates the info though, I got this email before racing…

are you taking the pi** my name is ******, i was born in curzon park west 48 years ago which overlooks the roodeye ive watched every race at chester since i could walk,and your trying to give me advice about chester race course,only 2 jockeys could ever ride chester and master it,the great lester piggot,and unbelievably alex greaves.no other jockey ive ever seen could bounce out a horse drawn low over 5 furlongs like them two,and todays jockeys havent a clue,you have to be whipping the horse out of the stalls,so thanks but no thanks,and please take me off your mailing list *******

I've added the asterisks but otherwise that's the whole mail as I received it 🙂

That aside I picked up an excellent tip for researching draw biases over the weekend.

Actually it was one of those ideas that's so obvious I can't believe I hadnt already thought of it myself, doh.

Basically the advice was that when researching biases regarding aspects of the course or conditions then do your research on handicaps, because in theory all runners should be equally matched. So any bias should be more prominent.

So for example with the draw if the horse in the stall you are looking at is a no hoper then his run will skew the statistics. But if all runners are handicapped to win then the results should be a better representation of the facts.

The next Chester meeting is on August 4th and Pontefract is this Friday.

Today's Selection courtesy of No Risk Tipster (Try for 1 month free)

Wolverhampton 9.20 Glenridding – win bet – 4/1 Boylesport

Pontefract Draw Bias

There is definitely a bias at Pontefract! And there is a meeting today.

This was first brought to my attention by Mark Foley of Trainer Trends

And if you want a horse racing education along with your winning tips then Mark's service is recommended.

So here's the simplest system you will ever see.

Back all horses in Stall 2 at Pontefract!

Draw biases don't last forever and usually something changes and the bias is removed or everybody gets to know about it and the prices start to reflect the bias.

So when one is discovered you have to make hay while the sun shines.

So here are the numbers from Horse Race Base for the last 2 years for all races at Pontefract.

Pontefract Draw Bias

If you look at stall 2 you can see that the strike rate is 25% and the return on investment is over 70%.

Ideally you will use this information to inform your selections at Pontefract but you could just back all stall 2 runners blindly until the bias fades.

Today's Selections

Southwell 7.05 Mandy The Nag – win bet – 9/2 Bet 365, Bet Victor

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