Tag Archives: each-way backer

Weekend Racing Tips

Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders (https://dailypunt.com/nickhardman) keeps sending winners our way and this week he looks at today's Doncaster card and tomorrows Aintree feature…

Weekend Racing Tips

Our mud-larks ran well at Ascot last weekend with Madame Chiang being the highlight winning at 12/1.  Betfair backers would have been nicely rewarded with an SP of 18.

Not a lot of action this Friday, but I want to highlight the performance of Luca Cumani at Doncaster this season and he has a number of runners this afternoon.

We will also be taking a look at the Old Roan Chase from Aintree that takes centre stage on Saturday.

Luca Cumani is having a solid season and one track where he has done particularly well is Doncaster.  Here are his statistics at the Yorkshire course this season to date:

Runs: 21

Wins: 8

Strike rate (% win): 38%

Strike rate (% place): 62%

Profit to level £1 stakes: £13.51

On Friday he runs:

1.50pm Dreamlike

3.30pm Sleeper King @25/1 (e/w ¼ odds, 5 places)

4.05pm Norway Cross @6/1

4.40pm Kleo @5/1

Dreamlike is a 2yo and Cumani has not had a 2yo winner at the course in the last 5 seasons (0-11). 

I would not be overly concerned by that statistic as he has only had the two 2yo runners up at Doncaster this season.

Overall his juveniles are 7-34 this year at a highly respectable strike rate of 21%. 

Dreamlike made an encouraging debut and there is likely more to come.  The market could be quite informative of her chances and she could go well at a price. 

Sleeper King has failed to progress from a promising 2yo campaign and he has shown nothing in 4 starts this year (form figures 0000).  However, this is his first run for Cumani having previously been with Kevin Ryan.  Caution is advised if you decide to back him. 

Norway Cross is interesting up in trip having won at Windsor last time out and Kleo is still unexposed after two wins this season and a LTO fourth in a Listed race at Yarmouth in September.  These two appear to have the best chances of the quartet.

The jumps season is starting to gather momentum and this Saturday sees the Old Roan Chase at Aintree. 

This year’s renewal looks wide open and a case can be made for many including current favourite Uxizandre, Module, Rajdhani Express and last year’s winner Conquisto. 

At the prices I think there is a bit of value in Conquisto to retain his crown if the ground stays good. 

A lot of the higher rated horses in this race will have other targets such as the Paddy Power Gold Cup and the Cheltenham festival whereas this looks like Conquisto’s main target. 

He is 4lbs lower than when winning this last year and I think he could well have been laid out for this. 

As an each-way alternative then Astracad could outrun his price, especially as he seems to save some of his better performances for Aintree (including a decent 2nd in this last year). 

In 2013 he ran in a 2 ½ mile handicap chase at the Cheltenham October meeting a week before lining up for this.  He has followed exactly the same path this year and with the Twiston-Davies horses running well he can give each-way backers a decent run for their money. 

If the rain arrives and there is a change in the going to soft then Wishfull Thinking would have to enter calculations.  His last 3 wins have come on heavy, soft and soft going.  He is rated 162 but he won twice off this mark last season.

Saturday Aintree 3.00pm

Conquisto @7/1 (if the ground remains good)

Each-way alternatives: Astracad @14/1 & Wishfull Thinking @14/1 (soft or worse) 

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York Trends and Selections

Following on from last week's very profitable column Nick Hardman of Betting School Insiders is back with more pointers for York.

If you want to be involved with Nick's analysis of the Glorious Goodwood festival next week join Betting Insiders where he will be posting up his thoughts on the 5 day meeting.

http://bettinginsiders.com

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Our Kevin Ryan angle came up trumps last Friday at Hamilton with the heavily gambled Blaine winning @6/1 after being widely available at 16/1 in the morning.

Our Godolphin 2yo angle also hit the target with Efflorescence (13/2) and Good Place (4/1) finishing 1-2 at Newmarket (their only two 2yo’s entered at the course that weekend).

This week we are off to York and first stop is William Haggas who boasts a 22% strike rate at the course since 2010 and a level stakes profit of £21.84. However, it is his 3yo and 4yo handicappers who provide us with the most profit:

William Haggas (3yo and 4yo runners in handicap races at York since 2010)

William Haggas 3 - 4 yo in handicaps

He has the following entries in handicaps at York this weekend:

Muthmir – Saturday 3.30pm 6f Class 2 handicap (Skybet Dash) @11/2

Haggas is 0-5 at York this season with his 3yo and older handicappers. However, he is having a decent season with 62 winners from 240 runners (strike rate 25.83%) and has a 30% success rate with his 3 year olds (46-154).

Our second York trainer to follow is Ron Harris and he is certainly one for the each-way backers looking for bigger prices. Since 2010 he has had 5 winners from 26 runners in 3yo and older handicap races for a level stakes profit of £51.00. However, it is his place strike rate that makes most appeal at 53.85% (14-26) which boosts his level stakes profit to £89.75.

Ron Harris (3yo and older runners in handicap races at York since 2012)

Ron Harris (3yo and older runners in handicap races at York since 2012)

Ron Harris has the following handicap entries at York this weekend:

Vincentti @8/1 – Friday 6.30pm 6f handicap
Mr Dandy Man @12/1 – Friday 8.30pm 5f handicap

Finally, Brian Ellison does not have many winners at York managing just 10 since 2010. However, he does have a decent strike rate in apprentice races at the course (3-17) and has a decent chance in the opener on Friday with Top Of The Glas.

Megan Carberry takes the ride and takes off 3lbs which effectively means Top Of The Glas races off the same mark as when victorious on his stable debut.

Top Of The Glas @7/2 – Friday 6.00pm 1m apprentice handicap

If you want to be involved with Nick's analysis of the Glorious Goodwood festival next week join Betting Insiders where he will be posting up his thoughts on the 5 day meeting.

http://bettinginsiders.com

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Chester Tips

Chester Race CourseYou probably noticed that yesterday's selection came from the Amateur Jockey system and it gave another win for Serena Brotherton 🙂

Today we have a guest post from Nick Hardman of Betting School Insiders and Nick gives us some pointers for the Chester meeting which kicks off today.

Chester Tips

Affectionately known as The Roodee, Chester racecourse is a flat left handed course with tight bends.

One circuit of the course is just over 1 mile in distance.  Horses are constantly on the turn and with such a short run in off the final bend it is very difficult for horses to win coming from off the pace.

Front runners and horses that race prominently are those that typically do well here.  It takes a particular kind of a horse to win here, a jockey who knows how to ride here and also a trainer who knows the type off horse to be suited by the tight turns of the track.

One trainer who has an excellent recent record at Chester is Roger Varian.  In the past 3 seasons he has sent out 5 winners from 18 runners at the course to a level stakes profit of £16.20.

Roger Varian – Chester runners 2012 – 2014

Runs

Wins

% win

Place

% place

P/L (£1 win)

18

5

28

6

33

+16.20

 

However, if we dig a little deeper we can see that it pays to follow his 3yo runners in particular at Chester:

Roger Varian – 3yo Chester runners 2012 – 2014

Runs

Wins

% win

Place

% place

P/L (£1 win)

13

5

38

6

46

+21.20

 

On Friday evening he runs a 3yo by the name of Tears Of The Sun in 1m 2f fillies handicap (7.20pm).  A winner last time out, she is up 6lb and has a handy draw in stall 2.

She is Roger Varian’s sole runner at the course on Friday and looks sure to go well.

Since 2010, Mark Johnston has notched up 35 winners at the course from 224 runners at a strike rate of 16%.  However, he is just 2-23 this season with his horses at the Roodee.

No-one rides Chester better than Franny Norton and when he teams up with Mark
Johnston they form a potent partnership.

Since 2010 they are 13-63 at a strike rate of 21%.  This season though they are 1-10.  The Johnston/ Norton combo teams up with Disavow (6.20pm),  Alpine Storm (6.50pm),  Maracuja (7.20pm) and Crafted (9.00pm).

Crafted is the most interesting over 7 ½ furlongs, a trip that has seen the Johnston/ Norton combination bag 3 wins from 7 runners since 2010 for a healthy strike rate of 43% and a level stakes profit of £16.33.

Richard Fahey is a trainer who sends a lot of horses to Chester and it is his 2yo runners in non-handicaps who are worth noting.

They are 11-39 for a level stakes profit of £22.24 at a healthy strike rate of 28% since 2010.  Twenty-two of those runners hit the places and each-way backers would have increased their level stakes profit to £43.63.

Richard Fahey – 2yo non-handicap races Chester 2010 – 2014

Runs

Wins

% win

Place

% place

P/L (£1 win)

P/L (e/w)

39

11

28

23

59

+22.24

+43.63

 

On Friday he runs 2yo filly Super Quick in the 7f maiden (6.20pm) and she looks to have a cracking chance.

 

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