Once we have found a dog that looks like it will have a favourable position, ideally in front, at the first bend and will not get any trouble on the way to the bend then all you need to know now is whether it is fast enough to hold onto its lead.
It is very common to find a dog that will get a clear run around and will lead most of the way in a race only to lose in the closing stages.
These sprint type dogs just don’t have the stamina to hold on to the winning line and are a trap for anybody using the kind of strategy that we have discussed here.
The key clue to whether we are dealing with this kind of dog is its past race positions. If it has led previously all the way but still not won then you need to find a reason why it might hang on today. EG If in a previous race the positions are shown as 2111 but the dog didn’t win the race then this is a danger signal.
Maybe it is an easier race today maybe a lower grade. Maybe it is fitter today, if the last run came after rest or it is a puppy who is improving. If you can’t find a reason then maybe you should give this one a miss.
Because graded races are in theory constructed such that any dog could win, other than the types mentioned above, I tend to not pay too much attention to the previous times recorded by each dog. As long as my selection is not way slower than the opposition then I am likely to go with it.
The exceptions to this are where I can see a reason why one of the opposition might improve. These include…
Puppies. Young dogs that are just starting out on their careers which can improve in leaps and bounds.
Rested dogs. Dogs that have been off for a rest and are not yet running to their pre rest form. EG If they were running A4 grade before their rest but are now reappearing in an A6 then it is likely that at sometime soon they will return to the previous grade IE they are better than their opposition.
Bitches that have been in season. Bitches don’t run when they are in season. When they return they tend to find significant improvement at around 16 weeks after their season commenced. This tendency is significant enough to be a profitable strategy in itself.
One final point to keep in mind is that you don’t have to bet just one selection in a race. If you have narrowed a race down to two or three contenders then consider splitting your stakes between them.
Splitting stakes across multiple selections is a strategy I use a lot in greyhound racing. You can either bet the same stake on each dog or adjust your stake so you make the same profit whichever of your selections wins.
You can use our dutching tool that will help you determine the correct stakes for dutching selections.
And that is the method that I use to find winning greyhound selections. As with any betting method you are looking for a dog with a strong chance of winning and one that has a better chance than the available odds suggest. There is no clear cut selection ever, because if a dog is an obvious winner then the odds will reflect that.
But that said I have frequently found selections that I am sure will win, barring accidents, at 4/1 and 5/1.
It’s Not All About The Money
Today we have a guest post from Darren Power of Betting Insiders…
All About The Money
I've got an idea that may be controversial or it may be a breakthrough that will help you cope with losing spells with your betting.
As I see it, the biggest problem that we have with making money from betting is coping with losing spells.
And knowing whether the bets you are making are good bets even if you aren't winning.
What I want to suggest is that you don't look to your profit and loss line to decide whether you are doing well.
But instead look at whether you are beating the market and judge your success that way.
I'm sure you have read more than once the assertion that the Betfair market is a true representation of the chances of the horses in a race.
And that the closer to the off we are, the more accurate those prices reflect the chances.
This is the Efficient Market Hypothesis.
So it follows that Betfair SP must reflect the true chance of each horse in a race.
Of course there will always be exceptions to this like the Barney Curley gambles last month.
And I guess scientists would call these outliers, but we need to deal with the mainstream. not these outliers.
So, if we take it as fact that the Betfair SP is the most accurate representation of the horses chance of winning. Then it follows that if you regularly beat Betfair SP then you will profit over the long term.
To beat Betfair SP you will need to bet earlier in the day. So what I'm proposing is mainly aimed at people who bet at bookies early prices.
What I'm suggesting is that if your bets fit the early price criteria that you measure by how much you've beaten Betfair SP and judge your performance on that achievement rather than on what is in bank account.
So let's look at an example to see how we might calculate this.
Lets say that we make a bet in the morning at 10/1 (11.0) and that the horse in question returns a Betfair SP of 7.6 then we have beaten the market and win a lose we made a good bet.
To calculate the advantage we want to know the difference between the implied probability of the price taken and the Betfair SP.
To get the implied probability just divide the price into 100.
So 10/1 = 11.0 which is a probability of 100/11 = 9.09%
7.6 is a probability of 100/7.6 = 13.15%
So our advantage is 13.15 – 9.09 = 4.06%
The chart below shows the profit compared to the price advantage from the Value Backing tipping service over the last 8 weeks.
The reason I looked at Value Backing is because it is a big price targeting service, which means long losing runs, which in turn means any snapshot of results will likely show it to be either very poor or very good depending on whether there have been recent winners.
What you can see from the chart is that the advantage over Betfair SP (blue line) has been pretty consistent, averaging an advantage of just over 1% per bet.
The green line shows the profit over the same period which heads in the same direction and ends up at 23.5 points profit at 1 point level stakes.
This example turned out to be a straightforward comparision, my next step is to try the same analysis on a more volatile set of results.
If you have comments on any of this please leave them below and I'll check back to answer them.
Darren Power
Betting Insiders
Today's Selection courtesy of Mathematician Betting
Wolverhampton 4.40 Ocean Legend – win bet – 9/4 Bet Victor
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