Tag Archives: exceptions

Greyhounds – Is it fast enough

Once we have found a dog that looks like it will have a favourable position, ideally in front, at the first bend and will not get any trouble on the way to the bend then all you need to know now is whether it is fast enough to hold onto its lead.

It is very common to find a dog that will get a clear run around and will lead most of the way in a race only to lose in the closing stages.

These sprint type dogs just don’t have the stamina to hold on to the winning line and are a trap for anybody using the kind of strategy that we have discussed here.

The key clue to whether we are dealing with this kind of dog is its past race positions. If it has led previously all the way but still not won then you need to find a reason why it might hang on today. EG If in a previous race the positions are shown as 2111 but the dog didn’t win the race then this is a danger signal.

Maybe it is an easier race today maybe a lower grade. Maybe it is fitter today, if the last run came after rest or it is a puppy who is improving. If you can’t find a reason then maybe you should give this one a miss.

Because graded races are in theory constructed such that any dog could win, other than the types mentioned above, I tend to not pay too much attention to the previous times recorded by each dog. As long as my selection is not way slower than the opposition then I am likely to go with it.

The exceptions to this are where I can see a reason why one of the opposition might improve. These include…

Puppies. Young dogs that are just starting out on their careers which can improve in leaps and bounds.

Rested dogs. Dogs that have been off for a rest and are not yet running to their pre rest form. EG If they were running A4 grade before their rest but are now reappearing in an A6 then it is likely that at sometime soon they will return to the previous grade IE they are better than their opposition.

Bitches that have been in season. Bitches don’t run when they are in season. When they return they tend to find significant improvement at around 16 weeks after their season commenced. This tendency is significant enough to be a profitable strategy in itself.

One final point to keep in mind is that you don’t have to bet just one selection in a race. If you have narrowed a race down to two or three contenders then consider splitting your stakes between them.

Splitting stakes across multiple selections is a strategy I use a lot in greyhound racing. You can either bet the same stake on each dog or adjust your stake so you make the same profit whichever of your selections wins.

You can use our dutching tool that will help you determine the correct stakes for dutching selections.

And that is the method that I use to find winning greyhound selections. As with any betting method you are looking for a dog with a strong chance of winning and one that has a better chance than the available odds suggest. There is no clear cut selection ever, because if a dog is an obvious winner then the odds will reflect that.

But that said I have frequently found selections that I am sure will win, barring accidents, at 4/1 and 5/1.

Betting Against the Crowd

Today we have part two of Phil Eadie's words of wisdom regarding his preference for betting against the crowd.

If you missed yesterdays part one then you can read that here.

To find out more about Phil and to read his thoughts on today's Aintree meeting head over to his blog here, while you're there I recommend you check out his Partners in Profit system.

Here's Phil…

So yesterday we talked about how backing favourites is no way to make money and how you don't have to spend hours studying form to find winning selections.

We also talked about my losing spells and how it wasnt until later on day 3 that I finally got some winners and made a great profit from the festival.

Following on from Cheltenham I again employed the same approach using belligerence and contrary views in equal measure and on Easter Monday I set about tackling the fifty races held in the UK. I came up with 27 bets, 22 of which lost.

Not to be too harsh on myself 9 of them came a close second and 5 were third.

The five winners produced over 40 points profit on the day.

No amounts of hours of painstaking form study, ratings or analysis of weights were used in determining any of the selections.

They were all however chosen using a perfectly logical and structured set of rules that were stuck to rigidly.

The message here is to take a different view to the majority of people, don’t be afraid to be wrong more often than your right.

The losing runs of which there can be many should not be feared but welcomed as essential, because it is just those losing runs that create the value in the winners.

Of course to profit from such an approach you must first develop a method of finding enough winners at such prices that will return an overall profit.

Finding winners like these is about finding a niche to exploit.

You may choose to follow a particular trainer or jockey and develop an understanding of where and what type of races they do better in.

You may follow particular horses and determine what conditions they excel in.

But whatever you do, do not develop your niche around the best or most popular names in the game as these are bound to come in for strong support and will rarely offer value, even when they do win.

The best form guide to finding such a niche will be your own eyes and ears.

Winners I know are very nice, but its profit that counts.

Try to look beyond the hype don’t be enticed by pundits sound bites of high strike rates or certainties.

Anything can happen in a horse race and it usually does.

Even with this contrary approach it should be remembered there are exceptions and you don’t need to play in every race.

I am happy to confess I have an obsession with opposing favourites, although I can honestly say I never risked a penny opposing the likes of Frankel, Sprinter Sacre or Big Bucks.

Nor was I ever enticed into backing them, preferring just to keep my powder dry and just thoroughly enjoy the spectacle on offer.

There is a more serious message within the belligerence above. You should always have a structure to your betting. Decide on your method of selection and stick with it.

Use a staking plan that suits your style or more importantly your pocket.

Emotion should play no part in your betting activities. What you bet on is less important than how you bet.

Be a better bettor and not a gambler. It’s far more satisfying to develop your own methods than to blindly follow the advice of others.

Phil Eadie

www.betorbet.co.uk

Today's Selection

Aintree 3.40 Gullible Gordon – Each way bet – 12/1 Bet365, Bet Victor, Paddy Power, Sky Bet, Boylesport

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