Tag Archives: extra furlong

Nick Hardman Tips

Anybody that followed our Friday Nick Hardman columns in 2014 will have made plenty of profit from the selections posted.

2015 has already got off to a great start and today Nick has selections at Huntingdon and Doncaster and selections for tomorrows Lanzarote…

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We had a great start to 2015 with 3 winners from our 5 AW selections in addition to L’Ami Serge winning comfortably and Triolo D’Alene grabbing some place money @16/1 under a brilliant ride by Barry Geraghty on Saturday.

This week we turn our attention to the Friday cards at Huntingdon and Doncaster and we have a couple of selections for the Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton on Saturday.

Nicky Henderson has a 44% strike rate at Huntingdon in the last 2 years. In that time he has sent out 15 winners from 34 runners. 9 of those winners were in hurdles races and he is 3-4 in maiden hurdles at the course.

Today he has a couple of qualifiers who are pretty much unknown quantities.

Huntingdon 1.20pm Maestro Royale
Huntingdon 2.30pm Hel Tara

Nicky Henderson also does well at Doncaster with his hurdlers. In the last two years his hurdlers at the course are 15-37 (41% strike rate) and show a level stakes profit of £37.46.

His handicap hurdlers have a lower strike rate (31%) but tend to pop up at decent prices with his last 4 handicap hurdle winners at the course returning industry SPs of 16/1, 15/2, 8/1 and 8/1. He has a trio of hurdle runners today.

Doncaster 12.30pm Saint Charles (Maiden hurdle)
Doncaster 1.35pm Nicolas Chauvin (Novice hurdle)
Doncaster 3.15pm Earth Amber (Handicap hurdle)

The Lanzarote Hurdle is one of the feature races on Saturday and I like the look of Dawalan and Hello George who are both backable each-way at 8/1.

Dawalan represents the Henderson/ Geraghty combination.

Back in November he got to within half a length of Sign Of A Victory over 2 miles and the latter is now rated 149 over hurdles having been last seen in the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle at Kempton.

Dawalan also had the re-opposing Kilcooley 16 lengths behind that day and that horse has gone on and franked that form (2nd to L’Ami Serge and 23 length winner at Haydock on his next two starts).

What is more significant though in the context of the Lanzarote hurdle is Dawalan’s battling victory at Ascot over 2m 4f on his last start.

That day he was outpaced and 5 lengths down three from home, but rallied gamely to get up close home to beat stable mate and 145 rated Bear’s Affair.

The extra furlong should suit and he gets a whole stone from Kilcooley who heads the weights.

Hello George ran a good race in the Ladbroke Hurdle, not beaten that far in 6th. He probably needs more of a test than the 2 miles he faced that day and he certainly gets it here.

He was tapped for toe in the Ladbroke but stayed on nicely to suggest the step up in trip may well suit.

He gets in off a light weight of 10st and that should see him competitive if he sees out the trip.

Saturday January 10th

Kempton 2.40 pm Dawalan 8/1 and Hello George 8/1 (1pt e/w ¼ odds, 4 places)

Hamilton Trainer Trends

Today we have an article from Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders where he looks at the Hamilton trainers for tonights meeting.

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Hamilton Trainer Trends

At first glance Keith Dalgleish does not appear to be a trainer to follow at Hamilton, despite a highly respectable strike rate of 14.95% in the last 5 years.

Backing all of his 194 runners at the track since 2010 would have resulted in an overall loss of £21.34 to £1 level stakes. However, if we focus solely on his runners in non-handicap races then we see a different story altogether.

Keith Dalgleish (all runners at Hamilton since 2010)

Keith Dalgleish (all runners at Hamilton since 2010)

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The record of his runners in non-handicap races is not only highly impressive but they are highly profitable too with a 25% win strike rate and a 50% place strike rate.

Keith Dalgleish (runners in non-handicap races at Hamilton since 2010)

Keith Dalgleish (runners in non-handicap races at Hamilton since 2010)

Click to Enlarge

 

His last 5 runners at the track in non-handicap races have finished 31121 at prices of 20/1, 7/1, 5/2, 50/1 and 9/4. On Friday he has the following entries in non-handicap races:

6.40pm Sir Acclam & Battleranger in the 6f maiden

Battleranger ran 2nd to an odds-on Mark Johnston fancy at the track last time out. That was only his second start and he outran his odds of 50/1 by some way. Sir Acclam was last of 9 on his sole start at Ayr.

Another trainer with a great record at Hamilton is Kevin Ryan. Since 2010 his runners at the course show a level stakes profit of £27.78 and a healthy strike rate of 23.33%.

Kevin Ryan (all runners at Hamilton since 2010)

Kevin Ryan (all runners at Hamilton since 2010)

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His 3yo runners do particularly well.

Kevin Ryan (3yo runners at Hamilton since 2010)

Kevin Ryan (3yo runners at Hamilton since 2010)

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He has the following entries on Friday:

7.40pm Hopes N Dreams & Blaine in the 6f class 2 handicap
8.45pm Keep To The Beat (3yo) in the 1m 3f handicap

Hopes N Dream absolutely loves it around Hamilton. The 6yo has course figures of 111711111. That’s 8 wins from 9 visits to the course including a last time out C&D win over useful yardstick Tangerine Trees.

Blaine is also entered in the same race but this former Gimcrack winner is a riskier betting proposition. He has failed to live up to expectations after winning his maiden and the Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes as a 2yo.

Once rated 107 his mark has tumbled to 96 and he unseated his rider last time out. He is undoubtedly talented as shown on his one good run this year when 3rd of 20 in a good handicap at York behind Aetna and Baccarat.

It may be he saves his best for York (form figures 113) but it would be folly to dismiss his chances out of hand here. Keep To The Beat is still a maiden after 9 starts but ran his best race last time out when a 1 ¼ length 3rd of 14 at Beverley. He stepped up from a mile to 10f that day and the extra furlong may well suit.

Our final trainer to follow at Hamilton is Mrs Marjorie Fife. Her record with her runners at the course speaks for itself:

Mrs Marjorie Fife (all runners at Hamilton since 2010)

Mrs Marjorie Fife (all runners at Hamilton since 2010)

Click to Enlarge

She is 2-2 this season at Hamilton and both those victorious horses return to the track on Friday.

7.10pm Mandalay King in the 6f handicap
9.10pm Camerooney in the 1m 1f handicap

Mandalay King is a 9yo now but he is still competitive at his given level. His overall course figures are 1723172241581. All four of his victories have come at class 5 or lower and he goes in the 6f class 5 handicap on Friday evening.

Camerooney is even older at 11 but he is another who loves it around Hamilton with two wins and a third place finish from three starts. Shirley Teasdale is booked to ride both and takes off a useful 5lbs which should see both horses competitive.

Finally, don’t forget we have previously highlighted (and profited from) Tom Dascombe’s runners at Haydock and the Godolphin 2yo runners at Newmarket trained by Charlie Appleby and Saeed bin Suroor. Both courses have meetings this Friday and Saturday so be sure to keep an eye out for their runners over the next two days.

Royal Ascot Day 4

No luck yesterday with Nick's selections, but still two days of the festival to go and if you want to go throw the card with Nick then check out his post on the Betting School Insiders Forum http://betting-school.com/phpbb

As usual we have the first race assessment for you for free…

2.30pm Albany Stakes

Not the easiest race to start Day 4 with most of these horses having raced just once or twice and the whole field open to any amount of improvement.

The race has produced two 16/1 winners and a 50/1 winner in the last 7 years and 3 favourites have obliged in the 12 times this race has been run.

Only 2 winners have come from outside the top 6 in the betting. Patience Alexander is a worthy favourite with 2 wins from 2, including a win over Tiggy Wiggy who has franked that form in no uncertain terms.

She steps up to 6f for the first time here though.

US raider Sunset Glow has to be respected and currently vies for joint favouritism with Patience Alexander.

That opens up opportunities for the each-way backer and Godolphin pair Bitter Lake and Elite Gardens both enter calculations on that score, as do Sexy Legs from Ireland and Bond’s Girl.

If Patience Alexander improves any amount like Tiggy Wiggy has done and gets the extra furlong, she is sure to go close. 

I really like the Godolphin pair and they look overpriced. From the two at the top of the market I think Patience Alexander @4/1 is the pick of the pair with Bitter Lake and Elite Gardens @12/1 (Bet 365, 4 places) viable each-way alternatives.

 

Royal Ascot Tips

Royal Ascot Tips

Our regular guest contributor Nick Hardman is posting his thoughts for every race of the 5 day Royal Ascot Festival on the Betting Insiders Club forum.

If you're a member there then pop over to http://betting-school.com/phpbb and you can get through the card analysis and Royal Ascot Tips.

If you're not a member then not to worry because we have bagged you one of Nick's assessments for free…

2.30pm Queen Anne Stakes

With my ante-post fancy Olympic Glory not lining up I have had to take another look at this race. The vibes from the Hannon yard suggest 
Toronado is fit, raring to go and as good as ever, although the fact no horse has won this on their reappearance since 1997 tempers enthusiasm slightly.

However, on closer inspection of the field he probably only needs to run to his rating to win this comfortably and you could argue that he has to underperform not to take this.

He also won first time out as a 2yo and as a 3yo so he undoubtedly goes well fresh.

I make him a worthy favourite but I would only back him at Evens with William Hill as they offer their usual money-back for 2nd place on C4 races.

The one at an each-way price could be French raider Anodin @12/1 who has been supplemented for this at a cost of £35k.

On paper he looks to have it all to do. He has just one Group win to his name in the Group 3 Prix Paul De Moussac and has come up short in Group 1 & Group 2 company since.

However, his last run was by far his best effort to date, finishing 2L second to none other than Cirrus Des Aigles in the Prix D’Ispahan.

That was over 9f on soft and maybe it was the extra furlong and the extra test of stamina that brought about that improvement.

This race is over a mile and has a few potential pacesetters in the line up. He may find himself tapped for toe early but staying on to grab a place.

As a full half-sister to Goldikova (1st and 2nd in this race) and trained by the very same trainer he is certainly the most interesting runner in the field.

An alternative would be to play Anodin in the place market, where anything around 5/2 would be decent value.

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Nick Hardman is a regular contributor at the Betting School Insiders Club, you can get his analysis of all the Royal Ascot races by joining Betting Insiders – Click Here

 

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