Tag Archives: Fancied Jumpers

For Serious Players

I'm just reading this months Betting Insiders Members Report, and it's a cracking read.

So I thought I'd share with you as much as I dare for those of you that aren't subscribed to this.

I will give you some angles for winning at one of the All Weather tracks below, but first I want to tell you about a couple of other articles within the report that you might want to investigate.

There is an excellent article by Leon Pidgeon where he looks into the lack of betting systems for football and so builds and Excel spreadsheet that will analyse the data from the Football Data site and help you to create systems.

The explanation of how to build the spreadsheet is a little heavy, but not to worry because Leon shares the finished product with club members.

The report is always packed with winning racing systems and angles, but the second thing that caught my eye was also a football strategy.

This time it's an interesting piece about betting in the win market and hedging your bet in the correct score market. Well worth a read if you bet in play on the footy.

The last thing I want to tell you about is the analysis of All Weather tracks and trends that are proving profitable recently.

I'll share some of the pointers for Kempton Park. Pay special attention to…

– Ralf Beckett: Two year old runners in maidens, especially if ridden by Jim Crowley.

– John Gosden: Two year old runners in maidens priced 9/1 or shorter.

– Saeed Bin Suroor: Any two year old sent to Kempton, but particularly if ridden by Durkin or De Sousa.

– Nicole Nordblad: When she rides for Hans Adielsson

This is just a selection of the pointers for Kempton. Only one is relavent for today's meeting and that is the last.

Nicole Nordblad rides Compton Crofter for Hans Adielsson in the 8:00. This one might be worth an each way bet.

For more about Betting Insiders – Click Here

If you joined for the system selections yesterday you would have been rewarded with 1 winner from 1 selection and I'm going with a selection from the Fit and Fancied Jumpers system today

Today's Selection

Mussleburgh 1.10 Be My Deputy – win bet – 2/1 Bet 365, Will Hill, Paddy Power

Road to Cheltenham – Cross Country Handicap

Before I get onto some more Cheltenham analysis and another clever angle from Mark Foley, I just want to remind you about a couple of things.

First off if you're not following the two free systems we gave out last week, why not. Like any betting strategy they don't win every day but long term they will return profit.

Yesterday Fit and Fancied Jumpers gave CAT 4.10 SHANGANI – WON 7/4F SP (3/1 early price)

All Weather system gave WOL 5.00 RUN IT TWICE – WON 10/3 (4/1 early).

You can still get the selections mailed to you for just £12.95 per month – Click Here

Secondly Each Way FX. I'm no Forex expert, but I've been sent a preview guide of this method and it seems pretty straightforward and more importantly highly profitable.

There have been some interesting free videos put out by the Each way FX team and you can still see them – Click Here

Even if you know nothing about Forex you really should listen to this guy.

Ok, so today I wanted to share more insight from Mark Foley of Trainer Trends, mainly because if I wait the price might disappear…

Why Balthazar King will probably have an unfair advantage in the Cross Country(CX) Handicap.

King Balthaazar 7/1 Cross Country.(Bet 365, Paddy Power, Will Hill, BetFred)

If you've ever watched a Cross Country race at Cheltenham you'll know that the configuration of the course makes the maze at Hampton Court look like a doddle in comparison.

Cock ups occur more often than not, most famously in the December trial last year when the 7 leaders all took the wrong course.

Jockeys are handed long bans (two 12 day bans last December) and this acts as a deterrent to the top jocks running in these races at Cheltenham.

I am convinced that the reason Balthazar king won this race at the festival last year was because Richard Johnson was in the saddle. Johnson and Dennis O'Regan were the only two top drawer jocks in a festival race, Amateur and Conditional races apart that just doesn't happen.

Philip Hobbs is the one British trainer to take these races seriously and broke the Irish strangle hold on the race last year. Balthazar King should be even stronger as a 9 yo this year and Richard Johnson will be riding the course for the 9th time and with wins on Lacdoudal and King Balthazar, looks a class above one or two of the jocks who will be riding on the day.

Balthazar King is currently available at 7/1 with most firms at the moment, it's just a shame that none of the layers are offering NRNB at the moment.

Today's Selection

Ayr 1.50 Welsh Bard – Each way bet – 8/1 Bet365

Fit and Fancied Done For You!

On the last day of my guest spot here, I just want to sum up what's been said.

Firstly, I think we have come accross a phenomena, a relatively new trend, which the general betting public and the bookies have yet to catch onto. This is the growing ability of trainers to recuperate their horses in time for a winning run within a short period of time.

This is probably because of advances pioneered by other trainers, Martin Pipe in particular, such as swimming facilites, physio, all weather gallops, etc, and other things I wouldn't pretend to understand as i have no experience of training horses.

This is just my educated guess. All i know is an awful lot more try and an awful lot more succeed these days, and that is what is important for us from a betting point of view.

I have shown you how we devised two systems, one for the jumps, Fit and Fancied Jumpers, and another for the all-weather, The All Weather System. Both of these use, as their basis, knowledge of this relatively new phenomena.

The interesting thing about the Fit and Fancied Jumpers system is that it does so much better in hurdle races with one outstanding exception – handicap chases. As I have openly acknowledged, I am no horse expert. My forte is stats and what I have been able to learn about probability. But, and again this is an educated guess, I think 2 miles over fences must take more out of a horse than the same over hurdles and therefore a longer recovery time is necessary. In which case, how do we explain the success with the handicap chasers?

My theory, as I said in the ebook, is that these are the type of races where trainers are trying to land a gamble and therefore maybe the horse wasn't given too hard a race the time before.

If it won, maybe it won in a grade well below what it is capable of winning in. In short, it didnt have too hard a race last time and therefore didn't need much time to get over its exertions.

This may explain why the system doesn't do as well with horses in NOVICE handicap chases. Horses running in these are not so experienced and may take more out of themselves than is necessary by running too keen, jumping too extravagantly etc.

The All Weather System is completely straightforward and gave us 5/1 SP winner, SCRIBE, yesterday.

Now, the question is: having gained this knowledge, what are you going to do with it?

I am afraid that, in all likelihood, the answer for many readers is, nothing.

A few disciplined souls will be able to ignore life's distractions and will scour the Racing post each night, (the info for both systems is online by 6.30 – 7 each night), for the system selections.

They will be able to back the selections at early prices on the exchanges or at Best Odds Guaranteed, (BOG) the next morning – thus gaining a further advantage. But the vast majority will not put this new knowledge to use whilst others will try to use it but not always come up with the correct selections.

This series of articles has aroused some interest and a few people have emailed us to point out that they may not have the time or the discipline to look for the selections themselves.

Also there has been some inevitable mistakes in the selection process so that some have thanked us for winners that weren't selections, while others have complained about losers that weren't selections!

This has led some to ask whether we have considered providing an email service. The answer is, we already do.

We send an email each night – whether there are selections or not – between 7 – 8. Where there are selections you get the race and the name of the horse and we recommend backing them all at BOG.

The cost is £7.95 per month for each system, fully inclusive, ie, no taxes on top.

However, we have been persuaded by Dave and the Daily Punt team to make a special one-off offer to Daily Punt readers, for today only, of an email service for BOTH systems for just £12.95 per month.

You will surely pay for that out of the ability to get on at early prices. Click Here.

Those who take advantage of this one day offer will also receive a FREE copy of our ebook BACK TO THE FUTURE, which shows you how to back your selections in a novel way which changes around half your losers into non runners!

If you are interested in this option click here to secure your place now.

I hope you have enjoyed this series and will put what you have learned to good use.

Good luck in your future betting.

All the best,
John Cutts

Today's Selection

Newcastle 3.35 Lady of Verona – each way bet – 8/1 Bet 365 will hill paddy power

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