Today we have an ante-post pick for the Triumph Hurdle and the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, together with a trends analysis of the Betfair Hurdle on Saturday. We finish off with a look at the prospects of Donald McCain Jr’s runners at Newcastle this afternoon.
We are building up a portfolio of ante-post selections for the Cheltenham Festival on the Members Community Forum over at the Betting School Insiders Club and I can share our latest one with you today. Gordon Elliot has an interesting runner in the Gala Retail Spring Juvenile Hurdle on Sunday and an eye catching performance could see his price contract for the two Cheltenham festival races for which he has an entry.
The horse in question is Vercingetorix and he was trained last year on the flat by none other than Andre Fabre in France. He ran four times, twice in Listed events, but failed to win. He won a maiden hurdle as easy as you like on racecourse debut and could have any amount of improvement in him.
The Spring Juvenile Hurdle is an excellent trial for the Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham festival. Unaccompanied won this race in 2011 before finishing second in the Triumph Hurdle, Hisaabaat did exactly the same in 2012, Our Conor won in 2012 and won the Triumph Hurdle a month later and last year Guitar Pete won this before finishing third in the 2014 Triumph Hurdle.
Vercingetorix has entries in the Supreme Novice and the Triumph Hurdle. I think he will go to the latter but I am happy to have a speculative £1 @33/1 for the Supreme in case he ends up running there instead.
JCB Triumph Hurdle – Vercingetorix @20/1
Supreme Novices' Hurdle – Vercingetorix @33/1
Newbury’s Betfair Hurdle on Saturday is a great race for trends analysis. Briefly the trends point towards a 5yo or 6yo (account for all of the last 8 winners) with a top 3 finish LTO (13 of the last 16 winners). 14 of the last 16 winners came from the top 7 in the betting market.
Horses tackling this on their seasonal reappearance are 1-20 and horses with more than 4 seasonal runs are 2-58. Horses that have raced over 2m 5f and further are 0-50 and are ones to swerve. Horses carrying 10st to 10st 9lbs have won 7 of the last 10 renewals but this year only 3 of the 24 runners are set to carry 10st 9lbs or less. Perhaps a better statistic is that all bar 2 of the last 16 winners carried 11st 2lbs or less.
All that leaves us with just the one qualifier and that is Evan Williams’ runner On Tour @16/1. Ticking plenty of boxes but outside the top 7 in the betting are Chieftan’s Choice @20/1, Violet Dancer @33/1, Ballybolley @25/1, Arzal @33/1 and Forced Family Fun @40/1. The former appeals most from an each-way perspective:
On Tour @16/1 (1/4 odds, 5 places)
Chieftan’s Choice @20/1 (1/4 odds, 5 places)
If trends are not your thing then the trainers with a good record in the race are Gary Moore, who won this back-to-back in 2007 and 2008 and Nicky Henderson who has saddled 5 winners since 1997. David Pipe runners have reached the frame in 4 of the last 5 renewals at prices of 15/2, 8/1, 10/1 and 14/1. Nicky Henderson runs Sign Of A Victory @12/1 off top-weight and I would not put anyone off backing him given his trainer’s record in the race.
Gary Moore runs Violet Dancer at a big price and David Pipe has two in the shape of Balgarry @16/1 and Swing Bowler @33/1. Balgarry must have a decent chance after a cracking run last time out on only his second start after a long absence. Swing Bowler has finished 5th (beaten just 4 lengths) and 3rd in the last two renewals and could give each-way backers a run for their money off a similar mark.
It’s a tough race to call especially given the strength of support for Paul Nicholls’ favourite Calipto who could be thrown in off 143 and Activial who looks closely matched with Nicholls’ runner. Add in the record of Nicky Henderson and the puzzle becomes even harder to crack.
All things considered, the trends have nailed us numerous winners over the course of this column so I will stick with On Tour, despite dropping back in trip. His trainer has said that he is worth a crack at this race and it will help that he will see out the trip better than most if they likely go hard up front. Chieftan’s Choice @20/1, Balgarry @16/1 and Swing Bowler @33/1 will complete my four against the field.
Donald McCain Jr’s last 11 runners at Newcastle have finished 13P31231113. The stable is in decent form and he has the following entries at the time of writing:
2.55pm Luccombe Down
3.25pm Lively Baron
4.00pm Whatdoesthefoxsay
Understanding Greyhound Racing Form
I've been promising for a while now that I will teach some winning greyhound strategies so today I'm going to explain how the form is recorded for the dogs. I'll then go on to share a strategy that I have used for years whenever I bet the dogs.
This is going to run over a number of days and I might spread it out a bit so as to not bore those readers not interested in the dogs, but we'll see how it goes.
So below you will see a screenshot of some greyhound racing form and below that a list of what the various items mean.
Greyhound racing form – Click to Enlarge
[1] Starting with the easy, this is the trap that the dog will run from
[2] The dogs name & (W) indicates that this dog is a wide runner and consequently it will be allocated one of the outside traps each time it runs. You may also see (M) which indicates a middle runner and this dog will be allocated a middle trap.
[3] The best recent (Calculated) time that the greyhound has achieved along with details of the grade and the date. In this case the best time came in a trial, a trial is a qualifying race which helps the racing manager to know how to grade the dog IE what is it's ability what race should he put it in. Trials will usually have less than 6 runners, 3 in this case, and there is no betting on trials.
[4] The name of the trainer.
[5] This is the Racing Post rating for the dog. It is time based and personally I don’t pay much attention to it.
[6] A description of the animal in this case a F b which is a fawn bitch (female) a male will be indicated with a d for dog. This is followed by the name of the dogs sire (father), dam (mother) and the date whelped (Date of Birth).
[7] Date last in season. Bitches only!
[8] This is the Racing Post's tipsters comment, often vague and and can sway your judgement.
Now we get to the past form for the dog in question. Each line represents one race with the top line being the most recent.
[9] The date of the race.
[10] The track where the race was run.
[11] The distance of the race in metres.
[12] The trap number that the dog ran from on that occasion.
[13] The sectional or split time. This is the time from the traps to the winning line the first time the dog passes the line. This is useful to hep you understand the pace of the dog and whether it is likely to lead early.
[14] Position in race at the start (IE out of the traps), quarter (In a 4 bend race this will be between the 1st & 2nd bends), half and three quarter stages.
[15] Finishing position.
[16] The distance beaten by or if the winner the distance won by.
[17] The name of the winner or the second if this dog was the winner.
[18] The Racing Manager's in running comments for that run
[19] The time that the winner took to complete the race.
[20] The allowance made for the going. N = normal otherwise plus or minus in hundredths of a second EG – 40 means that the time was adjusted down by 40 hundredths of a second.
[21] The starting price of the dog.
[22] The grade of the race.
[23] The calculated time for this dog. This will be calculated from the distance the dog finished behind the winner and adjusted for the going allowance.
Now that we understand the information (form) that we have available next time we can look at how we can use that information.
Now we know how to read the card check out these posts that deal with finding a winner.
Who is the fastest to the first bend
Greyhound racing videos
Baulking
Is it fast enough
Image courtesy of Saris0000 under Creative Commons 2.0
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