Tag Archives: Fixed Brush Hurdle

Nick Hardman Free Tips

A bright Friday morning brings with it the joy of six tips from the excellent Nick Hardman of the Betting School Insiders Club

We have some decent racing today with the meetings at Doncaster and Huntingdon standing out by some way. I have gone through the cards and picked out some horses with strong chances as well as picking out a couple of bigger priced each-way runners.

John Ferguson is 4-11 with his hurdlers at Doncaster in non-handicap races in the last 3 years for a level stakes profit of £9.29. He runs Buckwheat in the novice hurdle race at 1.05pm and champ AP McCoy is booked to ride.

Nicky Henderson’s Days Of Heaven rates a big danger after showing much improved form in a first time hood when scoring at Ludlow (hood fitted again here). With that in mind there are options for the forecast with these two likely to be a lot better than the rest.

Steel Summit’s winning sequence must come to an end at some point but the manner of his latest victory and the fact he is 10lbs well-in at the weights make him one of the strongest bets on the card in the 2.50pm.

Nicky Henderson has a good chance of taking the final race on the Doncaster card with Clondaw Banker in the maiden hurdle. His second behind Jolly’s Cracked it at Ascot back in November is smart form and he ran that same rival to within a length next time out. A reproduction of either of those efforts should be enough to win this.

It’s not often a horse with form figures 8696 would interest me but you should always put those figures into the context of the race the horse is running in.

In this case the race is a novice handicap hurdle and a quick look at the rest of the runners reveal they too have form figures that look like the numbers round from Countdown.

The horse in question is Haleo and he runs in the 1.40pm today at Doncaster.

What drew my eye to him originally is that he is rated 97 in a race where the top rated horses are rated 99.

However, he gets a hefty 13lbs weight-for-age allowance from those two horses.

He ran well for a long way on his last start before fading two from home to finish 6th, beaten 10 lengths in total. He is the 20/1 outsider of the field here but I think that allowance will see him finish closer than market expectations.

Over at Huntingdon we have a similar scenario in the 4.05pm handicap hurdle that closes the card. Cyclop is joint-top rated with Harry Hunt on an official rating of 120.

However, the 4yo Cyclop gets 11lbs from his 8yo rival. Also in his favour is the booking of Sam Twiston-Davies and he also has a C&D win to his name. Up 6lbs for that latest win he might still have a bit of improvement in him.

The best race on the Huntingdon card is the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle Qualifier and top rated Aubusson is sure to prove popular dropping back into a handicap.

His latest effort saw him finish 3rd in the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle. Prior to that, he won the Grade 3 Fixed Brush Hurdle at Haydock to earn his current rating of 153.

He has to give 11lbs away here although Lizzie Kelly’s claim will off-set 7lbs of that.

However, this is a hot race with David Pipe’s Knight Of Noir also holding strong claims along with Dolatulo and Zeroshadesofgrey.

But the one really interesting runner is Ely Brown. He defied an absence of 198 days to win a Pertemps Qualifier at Ascot in 2012 off a mark of 125 and went on to finish 6th in the Pertemps Final at the Cheltenham festival.

He defied an absence of 206 days to win the same Qualifier again in 2013 off a mark of 135 before being sent novice chasing where he won a Grade 2 on his second start.

He has not been seen in almost a year but it is interesting he goes back over hurdles and is racing here off a mark of 139.

Charlie Deutsch takes off 5lbs so that puts Ely Brown 1lb below his last winning hurdles mark.

He has won first time out in the last 2 seasons. This would be some training feat were he to take this and it will be interesting to see how he goes.

The negatives are that he is returning from injury (as opposed to a seasonal break) and word is he is being aimed at a tilt at the Grand National so this may just be a pipe-opener.

That said you often see Grand National horses running at the Cheltenham festival in the Pertemps Final.

My interest is perked just enough to have a little each-way @12/1.

Doncaster 1.05pm Buckwheat tweet this tip
Doncaster 1.40pm Haleo @20/1 (e/w) tweet this tip
Doncaster 2.50pm Steel Summit @6/4 tweet this tip
Doncaster 3.50pm Clondaw Banker tweet this tip
Huntingdon 3.05pm Ely Brown @12/1 (e/w) tweet this tip
Huntingdon 4.05pm Cyclop @9/2 tweet this tip

Doncaster Hurdlers

Today we have our regular, winning advice from Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders. (http://bettinginsiders.com )

Another Three Winners

We bagged another 3 winners last Friday although it was frustrating to see Trustan Times being badly impeded while in the process of running a big race in the Fixed Brush Hurdle on Saturday.  Still, that’s racing for you and we move on.  This week we take a look at a trainer with a fantastic record with his hurdlers and I will tell you where my money is going in the Hennessy Gold Cup on Saturday.

When I started writing this post I was looking for an angle for today’s Doncaster meeting and one trainer that caught my eye was John Quinn.  His record at Doncaster since 2010 is shown below:

Screen Shot 2014-11-27 at 13.21.50

John Quinn has sent out 309 hurdlers in the last 5 seasons compared to 25 chasers and 27 bumper runners.  If we look at the performance of his hurdlers at Doncaster priced 20/1 or shorter the stats look even more impressive:

Screen Shot 2014-11-27 at 13.26.18

That got me thinking about the performance of his hurdlers at other tracks.  He does exceptionally well (strike rate >30%) at many of the Northern tracks, especially Doncaster, Cartmel and Newcastle.  His hurdlers are worth noting at the following tracks:

Ayr, Ascot, Cartmel, Doncaster, Haydock, Hexham, Lingfield, Newbury, Newcastle, Perth, Wetherby and Worcester.  Backing all his hurdlers at these tracks, priced 20/1 or shorter since 2010 would have resulted in the following profits:

Screen Shot 2014-11-27 at 13.27.05

If you want a system with consistency then take a look at the yearly breakdown of John Quinn’s hurdlers at the courses we identified above.

Screen Shot 2014-11-27 at 13.28.01

John Quinn has 2 hurdlers entered at Newcastle on Saturday:

2.05pm Aurore D’Estruval @6/1

3.15pm Zermatt

Saturday also sees the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury and it looks like a terrific renewal.  I have taken a look at the profiles of the previous winners and there are two that tick plenty of boxes.  The two trends horses I will be backing are:

Newbury 3.00pm Smad Place @8/1 and Rocky Creek @10/1

Racing Tips

Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders (http://bettinginsiders.com )is back with us for a look at the racing action today and Saturday.

Racing Tips

Donald McCain Jr provided us with a couple of winners up at Musselburgh a fortnight ago and this Friday we hope for more of the same from a trainer with an excellent record at Ffos Las.

Rebecca Curtis has sent out 20 winners from 81 runners at the South Wales track in the last 2 years at a strike rate of 25% and a level stakes profit of £12.00.

She has decent prospects of adding to that tally today, especially with Davy Russell booked for four of the five rides

Rebecca Curtis runners at Ffos Las, Friday November 21st:

12.40 Vintage Vinnie
1.10 Binge Drinker
2.15 Tara Road & Champagne Rian
4.00 Veripek

Elsewhere on Friday’s cards, Virak looks a novice chaser of huge potential and he looks good value to follow up his seasonal reappearance win when easily beating subsequent winner Deputy Dan.

Haydock 2.30pm Virak @11/8

Saturday sees top class racing from Haydock and Ascot with the highlight being the Betfair Chase. The race itself is not a great betting race with Cue Card, Silviniaco Conti and Dynaste all around 10/3. Double Ross looks hugely overpriced at 25/1 considering he was beaten 4 lengths by Menorah and a short head by Taquin Du Seuil in the Charlie Hall Chase.

That day he had Medermit, Silviniaco Conti and the Giant Bolster in behind and they all re-oppose on Saturday. Clearly he lacks the class of the market leaders but if a couple of them fail to fire then I can see him sneaking a place. He is also fairly unexposed as a chaser over staying distances with his run in the Charlie Hall Chase being his first chase run beyond 2m 5 ½f. The Betfair place market would be the way to go as they will still pay 3 places if one or more of the 8 are withdrawn on the day of the race.

The one race on Saturday that does appeal is the Betfair Fixed Brush Hurdle at Haydock and the horse I want on my side is Trustan Times. He won this 2 years ago and was not disgraced in finishing 8th last year. His last run over hurdles saw him finish 4th in the Pertemps Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, beaten just ¾ length. He followed that up with 3rd in the Scottish National so we know he stays every yard of the 3m trip and looks a cracking each-way bet.

Saturday bets from Haydock:

Betfair Chase – Double Ross to place (Betfair, 3 places, currently 5.5 but look to get around 6.0 to 7.0) or if you are feeling brave back Double Ross @25/1 e/w with the bookmakers.

Betfair Fixed Brush Hurdle – Trustan Times @20/1 each-way

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