Tag Archives: flat racing calendar

Ayr Gold Cup Selections

Today we have our weekly big race insights from Nick Hardman of the Betting School Insiders Club http://dailypunt.com/betinsiders

It doesn’t come much harder than a 27 runner 6f handicap.

So how about three 27 runner handicaps in the space of two days?

I probably wouldn’t be doing my job if I were to turn down the opportunity to try and decipher the Ayr Bronze, Silver and Gold Cups – three of the toughest handicaps in the flat racing calendar.

The draw could play a huge role in the outcome of all three races and we will have a much better idea of draw bias by Saturday but for now we will start with the Bronze Cup on Friday.

The Bronze Cup was first run in 2009 so we have no real trends to go on and I will look to two trainers who do particularly well with their sprint handicappers at this meeting.

First up is Richard Fahey and he saddles Gatepost and Polski Max. The former is hard to win with but I like the fact he is running well and is as equally effective over 7f as he is over 6f.

If they go hell for leather then stamina as well as speed could come into play and Gatepost may well be there at the finish passing beaten horses.

Polski Max is very well handicapped and was once rated as high as 97 back in May last year. He races here off 79 and looked to be returning to form with a close up ¾ length 4th at Ripon last time out.

Dandy Nicholls is the “sprint king” and he has Bajan Bear, Fitz Flyer, Galvanize and Layla’s Hero in the line-up.

Bajan Bear is the choice of stable jockey Adrian Nicholls and will go close if bouncing back from a rare poor effort last time.

Layla’s Hero is admirably consistent and is 3lb well in under a penalty. He has not finished outside the three in his last 5 outings. These two are probably the pick of his quartet although it would be no great shock were any one of his runners to win this.

At the prices I will plump for the Fahey pair:

Ayr Bronze Cup 2.40pm – Gatespost @16/1 e/w & Polski Max @12/1 e/w (5 places)

Telmeyd is a worthy favourite in the Silver Cup on Saturday but at a best priced 7/1 I feel obliged to take him on.

Bogart for Kevin Ryan should go close if maintaining his current upward curve.

That is a big “if” but at 14/1 I am happy to back him each-way.

A winner of the 2yo Trophy at Redcar in 2011, he was once rated as high as 110 as a 3yo. He last won off a mark of 97 in August 2013 and put in his best effort since then when second to smart prospect Muthmir in the Portland last week.

He races off the same mark here (93) and a reproduction of that effort should see him go close from his (potentially) nice draw in stall 25.

If you ran this race 20 times you would probably get 20 different winners so I will stick with Bogart as my sole selection:

Ayr Silver Cup Saturday 2.40pm – Bogart @14/1 (e/w, 5 places)

Kevin Ryan has won the Ayr Gold Cup 3 times in the last 7 years, including back to back wins in 2011 and 2012. He runs York Glory, Blaine, Hamza and 2012 winner Captain Ramius.

Of the quartet it is the talented, but quirky, Blaine who makes most appeal. He has rediscovered his form this season with 2 wins in-between unseating his rider and finishing almost plumb last in the Steward’s Cup.

Kevin Ryan was quoted as saying he is in great form and will love the predicted fast ground.

The trends point towards a horse aged 4yo to 5yo, rated between 97 – 100, had at least 6 runs in the season and who has form over further than 6f.

One who ticks quite a few of those boxes is Go Far who was an unlucky 6th in the Portland and was doing his best work at the end. I will take these two against the field:

Ayr Gold Cup Saturday 3.50pm – Blaine @16/1 and Go Far @25/1 (e/w, 5 places)

Saturday Selections

I have a lot to tell you today…

1. Bet365 have a free £50 bet offer again, for existing and new customers.

2. We have a football bet from Football Bets.

3. We have the trends for the final day of Royal Ascot.

4. Today's selection

 

1. Bet365, these in play free bet offers that Bet 365 run really are no brainers, it's like they are just giving you £35 – £40 for a few minutes work, I've posted previously how to work out the bets needed to extract the free cash here. (use that as a template)

If you want somebody to email you exact instructions telling you how to get free money daily then check out Bonus Bagging.

 

2. Football Selection courtesy of Football Bets (Click Here to try them for £1)

7.45pm Spain v France

Everyone is expecting Spain to steamroller France in this one but I have healthy respect for the French here.

Yes they lost their last game but were unbeaten in 23 before that, scoring in 20 of them. They have played

each other 30 times with both teams scoring in 57% of those games. They have only met in 6 competitive

games though, with France winning 5 and drawing the other and in 5 of those 6 both teams have scored.

Back Both Teams to Score @ 13/10 with Hills for 1pt

 

3. Royal Ascot Day 5 Trends courtesy of Betting School Insiders Club

Steve only put up three selections yesterday on a hard day at Ascot, we had no profit yesterday. I am well in front though from my Day 3 bets and hope to play those up with todays selections.

Race 1 – 14:30 Chesham Stakes 7f Listed 2yo only

The longest distance of all the 2yo races at Royal Ascot the Chesham Stakes has provided some fairly ordinary winners over the last few years with many of the runners failing to build on their success here. 13 of the last 16 winners were male and fillies have a relatively poor record although Maybe did prevail last year. 11 of the last 13 winners returned 7/1 or less and were from the first 4 in the betting.

Race 2 – 15:05 Hardwicke Stakes 1m 4f Group 2 4yo+

The last filly to win was in 1996. The last 15 winners were all aged 4-6. All of the last 13 winners were from the first six in the betting. 15 of the last 16 winners had won a Group race. 12 of the last 13 winners had made the top 3 that season in a Group Race.

Race 3 – 15:45 Diamond Jubilee Stakes 6f Group 1 3yo+

Formerly called the Cork and Orrery the Golden (now Diamond) Jubilee got its new name in 2002 which was the same year that it was upgraded to Group 1 status. 12 of the last 15 winners were 4-6yo's. Only one (incl. joint) favourite has managed to win in the last 14 years. The last 16 winners were all male. Aussie superstar Black Caviar is due to take part but there are plenty of factors that make the task difficult.

Race 4 – 16:25 Wokingham Stakes 6f Class 2 Handicap 3yo+

The last of the big cavalry charges of the meeting. All of the last 13 winners were aged 4-6. For such an open type event the betting has been on the money with 11 of the last 14 winners were from the first 4 in the betting. 16 of the last 17 winners ran over 6f+ last time out (exception ran in the 5f Kings Stand on the previous Tuesday of Royal Ascot). The Wokingham invariably goes to a horse who has been specifically trained for the race so side with those who look as if they have had their mark protected for this race.

Race 5 – 17:00 Duke of Edinburgh Stakes 1m Class 2 Handicap 3yo+

Formerly known as the Bessborough handicap it has a fine tradition of producing good competitive fields and good quality handicap winners. All of the last 15 winners were rated 90-101, 14 of which were 4 or 5 yo’s. 14 of the last 16 were returned 14/1 or shorter. 12 of the last 13 winners had run in a class 2 or better race. All of the last 13 winners had won at 10f+.

Race 6 – 17:35 Queen Alexandra Stakes 2m 5f 159yds Class 2 Conditions 4yo+

The traditional curtain closer for Royal Ascot the Queen Alexander Stakes is the longest race run in the Flat Racing Calendar and is usually fought out by a mixture of NH plodders, maidens, handicappers and the odd decent horse who is just short of Group class. 15 of the last 16 winners were 12/1 or less. 12 of the last 13 winners were yet to win above Class 2.

 

4. Today's Selection courtesy of Value Backing

Ayr 4.40 Lisiere 1pt win @ 16`1 Bet365 BOG

 

By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more information

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.

Close