Tag Archives: formula

Longest Losing Run

Smart SiggerI've just been catching up with my reading, with this months Smart Sigger magazine.

This months issue includes Ebor Handicap Trends, a piece on the wisdom of crowds that looks at why starting prices reflect the true chance of a horse, a continuation of their implementation of a Bayes Theorem method. A system for betting debutantes in handicaps and an interesting piece about why you shouldnt always use past results as an indication of future performance.

But the piece I want to talk about today is a discussion of whether you are a gambler or an investor, which provided a reminder of the formula that you can use to calculate your longest expected losing run.

I think we have published this formula before but it's always worthwhile to revisit important fundamentals.

The gist of the article was that if you dont stake your bets consistently with your longest expected losing run then you are a gambler not an investor.

The formula for working out the longest expected losing run for a given strike rate is

LOG(Number of selections)/-LOG(1-Strike Rate)

If, like me you no longer have your log tables to hand, then you will need to use Excel or something similar to make the calculation.

By way of an example lets assume that we expect to make 400 bets this season and that the methods we use have a strike rate of 20%.

The 20% has to be converted to a decimal number, so we divide by 100 to give 0.20.

So the calculation is

LOG(400)/-LOG(1-0.20) = 26.85

So with a 20% strike rate over 400 bets we can expect a losing run of between 26 and 27.

Eddie Lloyd who wrote the piece goes on to state that if you intend to be an investor and not a gambler you had better have a bank and a stake size that can cope with the losing runs you can expect.

You can get your first issue of Smart Sigger for free – Click Here

Today's Selection

Lingfield 6.35 O Gorman – eachway bet – 13/2 Bet Victor

 

Odds On Value Bet

A lot of people will tell you that a bet is only value if it is big odds.

And that odds on bets cannot be value.

Those people are wrong.

To be value a bet only has to be available at bigger odds than the true chance of the event occurring.

I was reminded of this yesterday when I read an email from the Betfan Formula 1 service.

Rather than me re-write this in my own words I think it will make more sense if I show you the full message from Betfan F1

China Grand Prix

Statistical anomaly means bookies have got it wrong.

It’s happened for the first time this F1 season. Odds compilers have brought their banana skin to work, placed it under their chair leg and then decided to rock themselves on their seat while pricing up the Chinese Grand Prix.

There have been ten Chinese Grand Prix which have featured four Safety Car Periods. As that’s a good-sized sample it’s probably fair to say there is a 40 percent chance of a safety car being deployed this Sunday and 60 percent chance that it is not.

That converts directly into probability of 4/6 for no and 6/4 for yes. Funnily enough the best odds on offer for and against a safety car appearance is 4/6 and 6/5.

Therein lies the huge rick as only two races have actually been effected by a safety car period (when it was deployed twice). It means odds compilers have over-analysed their stats and should actually be betting 20 percent and 80 percent. That’s 1/4 no safety car and 4/1 that there is one.

There is another factor to consider which actually make a NO safety car scenario even shorter than 80 percent:

The last time it was brought into play, 2010, 24 cars lined-up for the race and not the 22 which will face the starter this Sunday. Two less cars means two less cars which can find themselves in a collision or stranded on a dangerous part of the circuit. That equates to eight percent.

Conclusion:

Not an attractive ‘get rich’ price but a hugely out-of-line all the same. 4/6 offers a return way in advance of what your money would if tied up in a five-year savings plan – and should give its yield after 90 minutes as opposed to 260 weeks.

BET – 6 Points on No Safety car @ 4/6

Hopefully the above explains why this bet is value more clearly than I could with hypothetical examples.

But to be clear the chance of a safety car being deployed is about 20% and the bookies have priced it like there is a 40% chance, so the 4/6 no safety car is huge value!

You can find out more about the Betfan F1 Betting service here.

And also I should mention that the Betfan free bets are currently topping the proofing table at Race Advisor and if you don't get their free bets you can sign up for free here.

Today's Selection

Newmarket 2.55 Toofi – win bet – 9/2 Paddy Power, Bet Victor

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