Tag Archives: friend

Horse Racing Ratings

Grey Horse BotToday we have our third guest column from Malcolm Pett of Greyhorse Bot fame.

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It’s strange how you see yourself…

I have always thought of myself as out going sort of person who likes a challenge and is not afraid to try something new.

Although I haven’t done as much as some people, I have had my fair share of adventures including, windsurfing, flying lessons, Scuba diving and sailing. Those are among some of the things I have tried and learned.

But while talking with some friends who I have only known over the last few years they said I was more of a “nerdy” type of guy.

When I quizzed them about why that was their impression of me?

Their answer was simply I am always talking about computers, programming, databases, 3d printers and lately quadcopters….. Nerdy!

Although I thought about defending my own impression of myself I have to admit…

…As the one that my friends tend to ask about anything technical it was going to be a hard battle to win.

So “Nerdy” I am…

To be honest I actually don’t mind the term although I am probably not exactly as some on-line dictionaries explain it…

“A person who is single-minded or accomplished in scientific or technical pursuits but is felt to be socially inept”

Any one that knows me will certainly not call me “socially inept”.

“One obsessed with something specified: a computer nerd.”

Which is probably what my friends were thinking when they used the term.

So when I start talking about System development or statistical modelling then you will probably think the same.

One of the things I love doing as a “computer nerd” is analysing our in house database to find horse racing systems.

Horse Racing Ratings

Lately I have been spending a great deal of time on developing ratings.

This is where you actually assign a number to each runner in a race and then rank them by that number or simply use the rating you have assigned them.

The official rating (OR) which you find on race cards is an example of this…

The fascination is in the way you create the ratings.

A trick you may want to use is to combine a number of ratings from different sources to create what some people refer to as “Power Ratings”.

So you could use the OR, RPR from the racing post and another rating like Sporting Life’s 5 star rating.

Add them altogether and you have ratings from 3 different sources which may point to another winner rather than the favourite.

I would suggest sticking to handicaps when you begin purely because all runners tend to be rated unlike say “maidens”.

I have tried this myself in the past and it can work quite well but the downside is the work involved getting all the information together daily.

I much prefer automation, and because of that I like to build my ratings based on statistical information.

Like…

How often a horse that came 1st place last time out…Wins.

Or

How often a 3 year old Horse wins a handicap.

You can see an example of how you could do it here.

See the ratings

I am a great believer in ratings (not just because I am a nerd) because I feel they give you a consistent way of selecting runners which tends to also give you a consistent strike rate.

The trick is to find the ones that offer value.

Thank you as always for reading I really appreciate it.

Malcolm

Malcolm Pett is the creator of the Greyhorse Bot which has been automating betting since 2006 – http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

15:05:00 Sandown 1 Alonsoa – win bet 11/8 Boylesport

Peter’s Course Specialists

Today I want to tell you a bit more about Peter's course specialist selections that we've been sharing since Friday.

I was put in contact with Peter by a friend who was impressed with Peter's ability to win on the horses.

I contacted Peter and he agreed to start sending me selections from some of the systems he uses and he sent some winners at juicy prices.

Following on from my article last week on course specialists Peter told me that he had a similar system that found selections most days. I then asked Peter if he would be prepared to share his selections here on Daily Punt for a month and he agreed.

So on Friday I started posting the selections here, and so far they have all lost! Hopefully this will change soon.

I don't know the full rules, but I do know that like my own system it looks at course winners and jockeys that do well at the course. It also looks at the going and distance.

Today there is no selection, but watch this space and we will share all the selections for a month and see how they do.

Lay Debutants

14:45:00 Ballinrobe 8 Monamintra (IRE)
15:00:00 Lingfield 7 Montaly
15:00:00 Lingfield 9 Palace Dragon (IRE)
18:15:00 Carlisle 3 Open Eagle (IRE)

Today's Selection

4.35 Carlisle Rockie Road – win bet 5/2 Bet 365, Paddy Power, Bet Victor, Sky Bet

Easy Money from In Play Betting

Today we have a guest article from Clive Keeling of What Really Wins Money (WRWM).

WRWM is a monthly newsletter which shares betting strategies every month.

Get full details here – http://whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk

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In-Play is where it pays.

The Football Season is upon and I am delighted already, simply because Man City got stuffed by Crystal Palace.

I still made money in this match by laying Crystal Palace 3-1 up at odds of 1.02. City scored a 90th minute goal to bring the Palace odds up to 1.18 allowing for a swift and profitable trade, with minimal risk.

And that’s not been the only end of match highlight this season. Don’t invite me round for tea because I’ll only bore you with stories of how I backed Benfica at odds of 120 ( 119/1 in old money) and actually won.

Take a gander at this thing of beauty…

Easy In Play Profits

I backed Benfica at odds of 4.60, 120 and 27 and came out of the match £389.58 richer.

A whopping £238 of that profit was made with a £2 stake.

So how was it done?

It was a feat as magical as anything Paul Daniels and the Lovely Debbie Magee ever managed.

There were 3 components here…

  • Research ( context)
  • In-Play Betting
  • 85th+ minute betting

Research

I research all football matches I consider betting in, and so should you.

It goes without saying.

Research here pointed to a Benfica side who had lost their first match of the new Portugeuse season.

I bracketed the word Context because this is important.

Last season, Benfica only lost one match all season.

Already this season they have lost their first match and are losing 0-1 at home to Gil Vicente.

To lose the opening 2 matches of the season, when they only lost one match all last season was tantamount to gifting the Portugeuse title to Porto already!

In-Play Betting.

Betting pre-kick off. Pah!

That’s Old Skool , kick it to the kerb girlfriend!

You will consistently get better value waiting for a match to go in-play.

Remember this – there are no foregone conclusions ever and there is no such thing as a sure thing.

Ask 1.25 shots Benfica!

Teams odds will rise and fall dramatically in-play over 90 minutes.

Bet pre kick off if you want, but I’m here you tell you, you can skyrocket your profits in-play.

85th+ Minute

I already alluded to this with the Palace v City match. I would urge you to add this little niche into your football betting portfolio.

Last minute betting in in-play football matches offers you the odds you’ve only ever dreamt of.

So back to Benfica.

Let’s look at the scoreline.

The winning Benfica goals were actually scored in the 92nd and 93rd minutes.

I know because I was following the match and I distinctly remember doing an embarrassing drunken-dad-at-wedding dance when Lima scored the winner.

And if you think this is an isolated incident, let me take you to France.

A certain Paris St Germain were 1.2 shots to beat Guincamp at home.

It was 0-0 at halftime.

It was 0-0 in the 89th minute.

And yes, you guessed it, PSG won 2-0.

I missed this particular pay day thanks to my oh-so-considerate girlfriend insisting we go out!

Last season, I layed the draw in one Olympiakos match at odds of 1.04, and won, and layed the 0-0 correct score in another Olympiakos match at odds of 1.14 and won.

So instead of tuning in at 3pm on a Saturday, tune in at 440pm , check out the scorelines and see if there are any potential shock results which you can exploit by backing and laying on Betfair.

Your risk is small, your potential reward massive.

Who knows? Maybe you’ll be the next person to nab that elusive 100+/1 winning bet!

Clive Keeling – http://whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk

Lay Debutants

I'm pleased to say we had our first losing bet yesterday. Pleased because we have taken the hit and are still well in profit. Here are today's.

14:30:00 Haydock 7 Sitting Pritty (IRE)
15:10:00 Newcastle 1 Chessfield Park
18:50:00 Kempton 7 Laugharne
18:50:00 Kempton 9 Literally On Fire (IRE)
18:50:00 Kempton 12 Rochambeau (IRE)
19:20:00 Kempton 5 Hesbaan (IRE)
20:20:00 Kempton 4 Mia San Triple

Today's Selection

6.20 Kempton Ocean Tempest – eachway bet – 6/1 Bet 365, Boylesports

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