Tag Archives: furlong handicap

Musselburgh Recap

We have racing at Musselburgh this afternoon, so today I'm going to revisit the pointers that Nick Hardman gave us a few weeks ago regarding trainers at this meeting.

Nick pointed us at a number of trainers that perform well at Musselburgh, with details of what types they excel with.

One of those trainers has runners today so we will look at the stats for Philip Kirby.

Nick's advice was to back Philip Kirby handicappers over 7 furlongs and longer.

Looking at the numbers I see that Mr Kirby concentrates on Handicaps, with 78 runs in Handicaps and only 7 in non Handicaps. (Musselburgh, last 4 years)

All of the non Handicap runners have lost.

The other pointer was to only bet at 7 furlongs or longer.

In fact there have only been two runs at below 7 furlongs, both lost.

Following the prescribed rules would have given the following returns over the past 4 years.

Runs = 76
Wins = 20
Strike Rate = 26.3%
Profit at iSP = 67.66
ROI iSP = 89.03%

Today Philip has…

Muss 4.10 Pass Muster (2 mile Handicap)
Muss 4.40 Iftikaar (7 furlong Handicap)

Handicap Draws

Did you get involved at Chester on Friday?

You will recall that we said stalls 1 and 2 were favoured, particularly over 5 furlongs, 6 furlongs, 1 mile 3 and 1 mile 4.

The results on Friday for the two 5 furlong races were a win for stall 1 at 4/1 and a win for stall 2 at 7/4.

And there was a race at 1 mile 4 furlongs which was won by the stall 1 horse at 7/2.

Saturday saw a 9/1 winner from stall 1 in the 6 furlong handicap, with stall 1 or 2 placing in the other two qualifying races.

Not everybody appreciates the info though, I got this email before racing…

are you taking the pi** my name is ******, i was born in curzon park west 48 years ago which overlooks the roodeye ive watched every race at chester since i could walk,and your trying to give me advice about chester race course,only 2 jockeys could ever ride chester and master it,the great lester piggot,and unbelievably alex greaves.no other jockey ive ever seen could bounce out a horse drawn low over 5 furlongs like them two,and todays jockeys havent a clue,you have to be whipping the horse out of the stalls,so thanks but no thanks,and please take me off your mailing list *******

I've added the asterisks but otherwise that's the whole mail as I received it 🙂

That aside I picked up an excellent tip for researching draw biases over the weekend.

Actually it was one of those ideas that's so obvious I can't believe I hadnt already thought of it myself, doh.

Basically the advice was that when researching biases regarding aspects of the course or conditions then do your research on handicaps, because in theory all runners should be equally matched. So any bias should be more prominent.

So for example with the draw if the horse in the stall you are looking at is a no hoper then his run will skew the statistics. But if all runners are handicapped to win then the results should be a better representation of the facts.

The next Chester meeting is on August 4th and Pontefract is this Friday.

Today's Selection courtesy of No Risk Tipster (Try for 1 month free)

Wolverhampton 9.20 Glenridding – win bet – 4/1 Boylesport

Lingfield Trends

I had a National Hunt Trainer Trends piece lined up for today, but with no NH racing I've shelved that for now.

Luckily the guys from Betting School have jumped in to fill the void with a profile piece on 6 furlong handicaps at Lingfield.

With a bit of burning of the midnight oil I've applied the profile to today's 1.30 at Lingfield.

Before I get started I should just mention that it was a good night for readers that followed my lead and layed Rosemary in I'm a Celebrity who was evicted last night.

So what I have from the Betting School Insiders Club is positive and negative factors that apply to runners in 3 year old + and 4 year old + handicaps over 6 furlongs at Lingfield.

It is a detailed piece that I can't fully share here, but here are the key factors that have been concluded…

Positives
Draws 3-6
Top five in the weights
Ran at Lingfield aw LTO Finished 2nd to 4th LTO
Favourites 2nd – 5th in the betting market LTO
Racing in same class as LTO

Negatives
Drawn 9 or higher 7th or higher in the weights
Aged 8 or older
Ran at Southwell aw LTO Finished 7th or worse LTO
7th or bigger in the betting market LTO
Class droppers

In the table below I have marked how each runner scores against each factor with a + for the positive factors and a – for negative factors.

 

Lingfield Race Profiles

Click to Enlarge

Now I was hoping that my work would highlight an outsider with a great chance, but if you look at the table you'll see that apart from the draw the favourite, We Have A Dream, ticks all the positive boxes and has non of the negatives.

Others worth a look are Hatta Stream, The Strig and the Dancing Lord.

The Dancing Lord is the rank outsider is up in class and has never had a win on the All Weather.

The Strig is a course and distance winner back in January, but off a lower mark.

Hatta Stream looks capable but is on a long losing run of 16.

All in all it looks like a race for the favourite, which was 4/1 earlier this morning but is now generally 7/2.

For the full research and much more try the Betting School Insiders Club for just £1, Click Here.

Today's Selections courtesy of the Winning Information Network

Kempton

7.00 Whaileyy 7/1 (General) Each Way

7.30 Jackie Love 17/2 (Betvictor) Each Way

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