Tag Archives: furlong races

More Up In Class

Following on from yesterday's research into a possible new National Hunt system we had one comment (thanks Kenny) with suggestions for further research. So today I'll look into the figures a bit further and see what we can dig up.

First off I looked at race distance for the horses that were up in class for the trainers we selected.

Here's the data I was returned…

Up In Class by Distance Table

 

From this I can see that some distances have proven to be more profitable than others in the past.

But I can think of no logical reason why some distances would have a higher strike rate and more profit. For example why would 2 mile and 1/2 a furlong races be profitable but 2 mile 1 furlong races not be. It's only a hundred meters further!

However it's worth noting that the majority of these race types are 2 mile races, and they are very profitable.

Next I looked at courses, here's the overall table…

Up In Class by Course Table

 

We can see that some are very profitable and some very unprofitable. I'm sure we could think up reasons why some would be more profitable than others, but I suppose what we really should do is to pick just one of our trainers and break down the data for course and distance for just that trainer and see if we can build a profile for these types of runners for each trainer.

So I'll put that on my to do list for next week and we'll see if we can drill down and build a collection of winning profiles.

There's no bets for the original system idea yet, if you missed it you can read it here

Today's Selection

3.30 Uttoxeter Carningli – win bet – evens Bet 365

Performance Review

Today I'm going to have a little catch up on some of the angles we've looked at recently.

Starting off with September Trainers.

You'll remember on the 3rd of this month we published a list of trainers to follow in September.

After 11 days we have had 20 bets, 3 wins and a profit at industry SP of 1.5 points.

The Betfair SP profit is a slightly juicier 4.55 after commission which is a 22% ROI.

Mark Foley's Gordon Elliott angle got of to a cracking start with a 7/1 winner on the day we published and 3 winners from 4 on the second day.

My stats may have steered readers away from the odds on selections but either way great profit was made and this is one to follow going forward.

The next Perth meeting is on the 24th and 25th of September.

Finally it is Chester tomorrow and although the low draws will be bet in the sprints you'll remember that our previous articles have shown that horses drawn 1 and 2 have a definite advantage on the 11 and 12 furlong races also.

This advantage is overlooked or not known by the majority of punters and is a source of value bets for us.

This article goes into the detail http://dailypunt.com/chester-draw-bias-2/

Today's Selection

Chepstow 4.00 Romance Story – win bet – 9/2 Betfred

Chester Draw Bias

As promised last week I'm going to share some stats about the draw at Chester which kicks off it's three day meeting today and which is on Channel Four.

We talked previously about draw biases not just effecting sprint races and about it being more about going around the bend.

Chester is all about the bend with the course being virtually a circle!

As we'll see in a minute the bias is all about the starting position in relation to the bend.

So here are the stats for the last 11 years for each starting stall.

 

Chester Starting Stall Stats

Click to Enlarge

What we see here is that the strike rate for Stall 1 is 19% and for Stall 2 is 18% the strike rate gradually decreases as the stall numbers increase, dropping as low as 2% albeit for lower numbers of runs.

Over the long term you can just back all Stall 1 and Stall 2 runners and make a profit at SP, the last four years have all been profitable.

The next table looks at Race Distance. (Stalls 1 & 2)

Chester Draw Bias by Distance

Click to Enlarge

Here we can see that the strike rate is highest at 5 furlongs, 5 1/2 furlongs and 6 furlongs.

But also at 1 mile 3 1/2 furlongs and 1 mile 4 1/2 furlongs.

Lets look at why that might be, with a look at the course layout.

Chester Race Course Layout

Click to Enlarge

 

What we can see here is that the 6 furlong start is right before a bend, the 5 furlong start is on the bend as is the 1 mile 4 furlong and the 1 mile 3 furlong.

All other distance start on the straight.

It's also worth noting that the 5 furlong races are not as profitable (ROI) as the others with the high strike rate and that will be because the Chester draw bias is well known and because most punters assume that it will be most effective at the sprint distance and so they over bet the low stalls in those races.

Today's Selection

Chester 3.15 Top Boy – eachway bet – 8/1 Paddy Power, Bet 365, Bet Victor

Image credits Horse Race Base, Racing Post

Handicap Draws

Did you get involved at Chester on Friday?

You will recall that we said stalls 1 and 2 were favoured, particularly over 5 furlongs, 6 furlongs, 1 mile 3 and 1 mile 4.

The results on Friday for the two 5 furlong races were a win for stall 1 at 4/1 and a win for stall 2 at 7/4.

And there was a race at 1 mile 4 furlongs which was won by the stall 1 horse at 7/2.

Saturday saw a 9/1 winner from stall 1 in the 6 furlong handicap, with stall 1 or 2 placing in the other two qualifying races.

Not everybody appreciates the info though, I got this email before racing…

are you taking the pi** my name is ******, i was born in curzon park west 48 years ago which overlooks the roodeye ive watched every race at chester since i could walk,and your trying to give me advice about chester race course,only 2 jockeys could ever ride chester and master it,the great lester piggot,and unbelievably alex greaves.no other jockey ive ever seen could bounce out a horse drawn low over 5 furlongs like them two,and todays jockeys havent a clue,you have to be whipping the horse out of the stalls,so thanks but no thanks,and please take me off your mailing list *******

I've added the asterisks but otherwise that's the whole mail as I received it 🙂

That aside I picked up an excellent tip for researching draw biases over the weekend.

Actually it was one of those ideas that's so obvious I can't believe I hadnt already thought of it myself, doh.

Basically the advice was that when researching biases regarding aspects of the course or conditions then do your research on handicaps, because in theory all runners should be equally matched. So any bias should be more prominent.

So for example with the draw if the horse in the stall you are looking at is a no hoper then his run will skew the statistics. But if all runners are handicapped to win then the results should be a better representation of the facts.

The next Chester meeting is on August 4th and Pontefract is this Friday.

Today's Selection courtesy of No Risk Tipster (Try for 1 month free)

Wolverhampton 9.20 Glenridding – win bet – 4/1 Boylesport

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