Tag Archives: General stats

Northumberland Plate Trends

Today we have another example of the kind of method that does find winning and profitable racing selections.

It's been submitted to us by Dave Renham who writes a regular column for the Racing & Football Outlook Newspaper.

Dave has also recently launched a new service that you can try for just £5 called www.horseracereport.co.uk.

Today's analysis of the Northumberland Plate comes from that service…

Northumberland Plate Ten Year Trends

There is an old saying of “A leopard does not change it’s spots”

 In racing unfortunately that saying is not true 100% of the time. Shocks do indeed occur.

I however am a firm believer that it would be foolish to continually ignore key lessons history has to teach us.

Each major race during the racing calendar is an individual and unique event. Each race tends to favour horses with certain characteristics and profiles.

One major race this weekend is the Northumberland plate

Below is my ten year trends report on this race.

I hope it is of some assistance in helping you compile your own sensible shortlist of contenders.

Dave Renham

www.HorseRaceReport.co.uk

Course – Newcastle

Distance – 2 miles

Date 29th  – June 2013

Average field size last 10 years – 19

Market Trends 

Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 11 for a loss of £1.50 (ROI -13.6%).
Top three in betting: 2 wins for the top three in the betting.
Top six in betting: 4 wins for the top six in the betting.
Price: Horses priced between 14/1 and 33/1 have provided 7 of the last 10 winners.

 

LTO stats 

Days since last run: 0 wins from 24 for horses returning to the track within 10 days.
Position LTO: 2 wins for horses that won LTO (from 35 runners).
Position LTO: 7 wins for horses that finished in the first three LTO from 99 runners.
Position LTO: Horses that finished 6th or worse LTO have provided just 1 winner from 55.
LTO favourites: 3 wins for horses that were favourite LTO (from 27 runners).
LTO Top three in betting: 3 wins for horses from the top three in the betting LTO (from 78 runners).
LTO Price: Horses priced between 10/1 and 16/1 LTO have provided 6 of the last 10 winners from only 47 runners. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a profit of £54.50 (ROI +116.0%).
LTO distance: Horses that raced over 1m 7f or less LTO have provided just 2 winners from 95 for a loss of £54.00 (ROI -56.8%); horses that raced over 2m 2f or more LTO have provided 5 winners from 50 for a profit of £25.50 (ROI +51%).

 

Age 

Age

Wins

Runners

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

3

0

1

0.0

-£1.00

-100.0

4

4

64

6.3

+£13.00

+20.3

5

0

44

0.0

-£44.00

-100.0

6

4

41

9.8

+£9.50

+23.2

7+

2

38

5.3

+£11.00

+28.9

 

Official ratings (OR) 

OR band

Wins

Runners

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

90 and below

4

70

5.7

+£39.00

+55.7

91-96

5

67

7.5

-£3.00

-4.5

97 and above

1

51

2.0

-£47.50

-93.1

 

 Draw

Draws

Wins

Runners

SR%

1-6

4

60

6.7

7-12

2

60

3.3

13+

4

68

5.9

 

 Breeding

Breeding

Wins

Runners

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

FR

1

6

16.7

-£2.50

-41.7

GB

3

87

3.4

-£29.00

-33.3

GER

1

1

100.0

+£14.00

+1400.0

IRE

4

78

5.1

+£11.00

+14.1

USA

1

14

7.1

-£3.00

-21.4

Other countries

0

2

0.0

-£2.00

-100.0

 

Class change 

Class change

Wins

Runners

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Down in class

1

29

3.4

-£14.00

-48.3

Same class

7

100

7.0

+£20.50

+20.5

Up in class

2

58

3.4

-£17.00

-29.3

 

Trainer stats 

Trainers: 2 wins from 3 runners for Donald McCain.

 

General stats

Headgear (visor, cheekpieces, blinkers, etc): 1 win from 35.
Claiming jockeys: 3 wins from 23.
Recent win: 6 of the last 10 winners had won at least once in their last three starts from 92 runners. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a profit of £11.50 (ROI +12.5%).
Handicap runs: Horses who have had 5 or less handicap runs have provided 0 winners from 43 runners.
Career  wins: Horses with 2 or fewer career wins have provided just 1 winner from 55 runners for a loss of £40.00 (ROI -72.7%).

 

Conclusion – A few interesting angles for this race. Firstly higher rated runners have struggled with those rated 94 and above managing just 1 win from 79; horses rated 85 to 93 have provided 9 winners from 96. Horses stepping up in trip have struggled whereas horses dropping 2 furlongs or more in trip have performed well above the average. The top three in the betting have performed well below the norm despite a winning favourite last year, while the 14/1 to 33/1 price bracket has actually yielded a 10 year profit if backing all runners from that band. LTO market factors have also favoured slightly higher prices with the LTO price bracket of 10/1 to 16/1 doing especially well. Age wise there is no clear pattern.

Dave Renham

Dave Renham writes a regular horse racing research column for the Racing & Football Outlook Newspaper. He also runs www.HorseRaceReport.co.uk which offers both free and  a  low cost paid for options to people interested in researched racing advice.

Today's Selection

2:30:00 Doncaster 5 Inyordreams – each way bet – 9/1 Will Hill, Bet Victor

Gold Cup – Kauto Star?

Gold Cup – Kauto Star?

Today we have a guest post from industry expert Dave Renham…

————————————————-

Dave Renham currently writes for the Racing and Football Outlook Newspaper, has produced website content for the At the Races website and has also worked as spotlight in the Racing Post.

You can get more excellent free stuff from Dave if you register for the free areas on his two websites at www.PunterProfits.com and www.RacingTrends.co.uk
————————————————-

Cheltenham Gold Cup

I am a firm believer that the past has many important lessons to teach us. The more carefully one investigates the past the more likely one is to make sensible predictions about the future.

The big race of the Cheltenham Festival is the Gold Cup. I have studied the records of the last ten years and have highlighted below some of the stand out positive and negative statistics for this race.

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites: 6 wins from 10 (PROFIT £8.85; ROI +88.5%). (based on Starting Prices)
Market: All of the last 10 winners came from the top three in the betting.
Recent form: 7 of the last 10 winners won LTO.
Festival Form: 8 of the last 10 winners had won or been placed at a previous Festival (6 had won).
Age: 9 of the last 10 winners were aged 7, 8 or 9 (16 of the last 18).
Course LTO: All of the last 10 winners came from one of three tracks –Leopardstown, Newbury or Kempton.
King George: 8 of the last 10 winners ran in the King George VI chase the previous December (for 6 of them it was their most recent start).
Official ratings: Horses with an OR of 169 or bigger have produced 8 winners from only 22 qualifiers.
Days since last run: All of the last 10 winners had not raced for at least a month.
Breeding: Irish bred runners have provided 7 of the last 10 winners.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price: Horses priced 8/1 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 122 runners.
Age: Horses aged 10 or older are 0 wins from 48.

GENERAL STATS
Finishing positions of favourites: PU, 1, 1, 1, 11, 1, 2, 1, F, 1

CONCLUSION

The most interesting stats/trends angle this year is the fact that Kauto Star who is 12 years old is second favourite. He is a best priced 7/2, and is as low as 5/2 with Ladbrokes.

The problem for punters wanting to back him is that he has a huge age trend to break.

Of course trends are there to be broken, but since 1988 the record of horses aged 11 or older reads a dismal 0 from 46.

This is as far back as I can go as the Racing Post on line results stop at 1988.

However, I can add that the last winner aged 11 or older of the Gold Cup was What a Myth in 1969 when he was a 12 year old.

Hence we are probably looking at a losing run of around 80-90 runners for horses aged 11 or older.

Would you want to back Kauto Star knowing that?

OK, it looks a sub standard race this year but even so I’ll be sticking with the trends.

Advice – LAY Kauto Star in the Cheltenham Gold Cup on Betfair

Best Wishes

Dave Renham

————————–

Today’s Selection Sponsored by Betting Insiders Club

Nesnaas 0.5pts EW (3.00 Leicester) 25`1 with various firms

Is a bit of a leap of faith when you look at jumps form figures. But has been running with credit on the flat recently for a new yard and the selection is very well handicapped if they have sweetened him up.

By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more information

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.

Close