Tag Archives: good sign

400 Points a Year System

Today we have our regular Wednesday column from Malcolm Pett (http://greyhorsebot.com)

We do a lot of “open” testing at the Grey Horse Bot web site sometimes just to see how a particular idea will work out (high strike rate favourites) and sometimes to test a new system idea that looks like it could work.

Although it’s nice to see a profit from the testing sometimes the goal is just to see if a system is performing as expected.

As you know not every system will make a profit every month so a trial period may not be profitable but if the system performs as it has in the past then that is a good sign.

We started testing “Elision” back at the end of August.

This was planned as a 3 month test just to see if the ratings system we were using to help find the selections did actually continue to work as expected.

Elision is a Handicap Hurdle system and although the ratings picked the selections we added in a few other filters to help whittle down the field…

…Although because of the ratings we can still end up with more than one selection in a race.

The test has been quite revealing which you can see if you study the results page.

We have recently started to increase the amount of statistical information we supply on our results and have now added…

Longest Losing run
Predicted Longest losing Run.
Highest Bank draw down.

These along with the month by month and day by day results and the visual graph give you a good understanding of how the system is performing.

Another thing we give our customers from time to time is a report about the test which includes information about how we feel the system had performed and there is also one of these available on the results page.

I am not sure if Elision will appeal to everyone. But the fact that it made over 500 points last year and has still managed over 400 points this year should tempt you to at least have a look.

You can get all this information here.


http://greyhorsebot.com/elision

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm
The Grey Horse Bot.

Today's Selection

Kempton 6.50 Jelly Fish – eachway bet – 8/1 Sporting Bet

Drifters – Good or Bad

Today's pearl of wisdom has been inspired by a bet on the Racing Consultants (http://racingconsultants.co.uk) tipping service last week.

This bet has been the talk of the office because we got so many emails and opinions in about it.

Basically last Thursday David Massey posted up four bets

Today

7.15 Kempton – 1pt win Taaresh (8-1 Bet Victor, Paddy Power, W Hill and others)

7.45 Kempton – 1pt e/w Tevez (9-1 Skybet, Stan James, Coral)

2.15 Wincanton – 1.5pts win Silver Commander (at 6.6 and above Betfair)

2.15 Wincanton – 2pts lay Silver Commander at 2.76 in running.

4.5pts staked

The one that caused the fuss was Taaresh, this is what David wrote as his reasons for making the selection.

An angle we like to use on a regular basis is a horse that's improved or refound it's form over jumps that then reverts to the Flat with a mark that looks on the low side, and Kevin Morgan's evergreen TAARESH fits that bill nicely here. Winner of a competitive 0-120 at Worcester that's worked out quite well, he followed that up with a win off 7lb higher and in better class at Wincanton, a sign that he's clearly in good heart at the moment. Upped in class again for his latest start at Musselburgh, he was far from disgraced in finishing fifth, just getting outpaced in the last quarter of a mile. Back on the Flat and in a low grade handicap, he looks well treated off just 70 here and as a C&D winner for Joe Fanning in the past, has no issue with the conditions either. A slight worry we have is the lack of pace in the race, but that is only a minor one, as he does travel well in his races and isn't short of pace should it turn into a burn up in the straight.

You'll note that the price available at the time the bet was posted was 8/1.

By race time he opened up at 16/1 and drifted out to 25/1!

So the question is, if you hadn't already had your bet placed and a top service tipped you a horse at 8/1 that was now 16/1 and drifting to 20's then 25's would you have bet it?

And would you still have your full stake on it?

Or would you assume that it had no chance because of the price and not bet only to watch it win.

So many people will not bet a horse that drifts because they see it as a negative sign.

Gamblers who make money from their betting would see it as a good sign that they are getting extra value!

My advice is if there is sound reasoning as to why a horse should be a selection then your only concern with the price is that you get the best price that you can.

As I've used Racing Consultants as an example I should mention that the service has now been live for 6 month and every month has been a profitable month with a total profit of £1784.50 to £10 stakes. Which is pretty good for a service that costs just £30 per month. http://racingconsultants.co.uk

Today's Selection

4.10 Kempton Zman Awal – win bet 2/1 Paddy Power

Sire Systems II

We have two more sire micro systems today, these are courtesy of reader Simon French who commented on yesterday's post with two sire systems of his own.

Let's look at the first of those sires, and that is Dom Alco (FR).

The first thing I notice when I look at Dom Alco progeny is that you could've backed them all to date and made a level stake profit (5% ROI). So that's a good sign.

Simon has just two additional rules, which are the horse age which must be between 5 and 8 years old and the race distance which must be between 2 mile 6 furlongs  and 3 mile  1 furlong.

This gives the following results.

Runs = 187

Wins = 45

Strike Rate = 24.06%

Profit = 70.96

Return on Investment = 37.95%

The only thing I would say about this one is that the profit last year was lower than previous years, so I'll be looking for some signs that this is still going to be profitable in the future.

The next system bets Dubawi (IRE) progeny and there are a lot of them.

Backing all is a break even proposition.

The rules that Simon suggests are course equals Southwell (AW), age equals 3 to 5 and distance equals 5 furlongs to a mile.

This gives the following results.

Runs = 44

Wins = 18

Strike Rate = 40.91%

Profit = 62.09

Return on Investment = 141.11%

Again, this one had a poor 2013.

I will definitely be following both over the coming weeks, but will save my money until I have see some good live results.

Thanks  Simon, I've got a spare copy of Value Backing by Carl Nicholson sitting on my desk which I'd be happy to send you. Email me your address and I'll pop it in the post.

Today's Selection courtesy of Betting Insiders

Southwell 3.40 Arr Kid – win bet – 11/4 Betfred

Value Handicap Bets Analysis

RIP Sir Henry Cecil

Today I'll run through what happened with yesterdays well handicapped horses and I'll include a list of today's contenders.

So we put up 27 horses yesterday that had previously won off of the same or a higher mark than yesterdays.

The horses ran in 8 races and we found 1 winner at 14/1.

5 placed horses at 33/1, 14/1, 7/1, 9/2 and 7/2.

9 started at shorter odds, 6 at the same odds.

I think these results are a good sign that we are onto something, and the comments on yesterdays posts would suggest the same.

What we need next are some rules that will weed out some of the less likely to win horses.

Today we have 79 qualifiers in 19 races. In some of these races over half the field is running off of a better mark than they last won off of. It may be that we need to just disregard races with too many qualifiers.

What I have done below is listed all the qualifiers along with the prices as of 9.45.

I've also marked whether they are a course or distance winner and I've marked an asterisk against the horse with the biggest advantage in each race.

14:30:00 Beverley Amadeus Denton (IRE) d 10/3
14:30:00 Beverley Amenable (IRE)* d 9/1
14:30:00 Beverley Chocamoca (IRE) cd 3/1
14:30:00 Beverley Fathey (IRE) d 33/1
14:30:00 Beverley Lady Royale d 10/1
14:30:00 Beverley Pull The Pin (IRE) 9/2
15:30:00 Beverley Eeny Mac (IRE) cd 8/1
15:30:00 Beverley Exceedexpectations (IRE) 6/1
15:30:00 Beverley Last Destination (IRE) cd 12/1
15:30:00 Beverley Moral Issue* 20/1
15:30:00 Beverley Sky Crossing* 18/1
15:30:00 Beverley Summer Dancer (IRE) cd 7/1
15:30:00 Beverley Talent Scout (IRE) 11/2
16:00:00 Beverley Frog Hollow* 11/10
16:00:00 Beverley Hayek 16/1
16:30:00 Beverley Bains Pass (IRE)* 9/1
17:00:00 Beverley Amazing Blue Sky* cd 15/2
17:00:00 Beverley Fairlie Dinkum 50/1
17:00:00 Beverley General Tufto cd 50/1
17:00:00 Beverley King Fingal (IRE) cd 16/1
17:00:00 Beverley King Kurt (IRE) d 12/1
17:00:00 Beverley Korngold 22/1
17:00:00 Beverley Miss Ella Jade 25/1
17:00:00 Beverley Monzino (USA) 50/1
17:00:00 Beverley Oneofapear (IRE) d 33/1
17:00:00 Beverley Rockweiller d 7/1
17:00:00 Beverley Standpoint d 25/1
17:30:00 Beverley Ace Master d 8/1
17:30:00 Beverley Storey Hill (USA)* d 33/1
18:20:00 Hamilton Almaty Express cd 20/1
18:20:00 Hamilton Alpha Tauri (USA)* 7/1
18:20:00 Hamilton Berbice (IRE) d 20/1
18:20:00 Hamilton Eilean Mor 33/1
18:20:00 Hamilton Hab Reeh d 9/1
18:20:00 Hamilton Insolenceofoffice (IRE) d 6/1
18:20:00 Hamilton Ivestar (IRE) cd 25/1
18:20:00 Hamilton Rock Canyon (IRE) cd 14/1
18:20:00 Hamilton Yourelikemefrank 14/1
19:20:00 Hamilton Euston Square c 11/1
19:20:00 Hamilton King Of Paradise (IRE) c 12/1
19:20:00 Hamilton Lochiel* cd 25/1
19:50:00 Hamilton Ambitious Icarus 14/1
19:50:00 Hamilton Jeannie Galloway (IRE)* cd 12/1
19:50:00 Hamilton Rasaman (IRE) cd 9/2
19:50:00 Hamilton Roker Park (IRE) d 11/4
21:20:00 Hamilton Flipping* d 7/1
21:20:00 Hamilton Meglio Ancora d 14/1
14:20:00 Haydock Gran Maestro (USA) cd 5/2
14:20:00 Haydock Las Verglas Star (IRE) c 12/1
14:20:00 Haydock San Cassiano (IRE)* 25/1
14:20:00 Haydock Satanic Beat (IRE) 20/1
14:20:00 Haydock Super Say (IRE) 8/1
15:20:00 Haydock Good Evans* 13/2
15:50:00 Haydock Dubai Hills c d 4/1
15:50:00 Haydock The Rectifier (USA)* 14/1
18:10:00 Kempton Edgewater (IRE)* d 11/1
18:10:00 Kempton High On The Hog (IRE) 15/2
18:10:00 Kempton Jake The Snake (IRE) cd 7/2
18:10:00 Kempton Tartan Trip d 5/1
19:10:00 Kempton Kodatish (IRE)* 22/1
19:40:00 Kempton Cape Joy (IRE) 16/1
19:40:00 Kempton Dolly Colman (IRE) c 33/1
19:40:00 Kempton Golden Jubilee (USA) 11/2
19:40:00 Kempton Kings Road d 12/1
19:40:00 Kempton Numen (IRE)* 20/1
20:40:00 Kempton Rondeau (GR) c d 14/1
20:40:00 Kempton Shifting Star (IRE)* d 25/1
21:10:00 Kempton Starlight Angel (IRE)* 16/1
15:40:00 Yarmouth Equitania d 8/1
15:40:00 Yarmouth Out Do d 3/1
15:40:00 Yarmouth Piazza San Pietro cd 16/1
15:40:00 Yarmouth Red Aggressor (IRE) 28/1
15:40:00 Yarmouth Tarooq (USA) d 4/1
15:40:00 Yarmouth Woolfall Sovereign (IRE)* d 25/1
16:10:00 Yarmouth Black Dave (IRE) d 5/1
16:10:00 Yarmouth Done Dreaming (IRE)* 11/2
17:10:00 Yarmouth Big Wave (IRE) cd 14/1
17:10:00 Yarmouth Danziger (IRE) 18/1
17:10:00 Yarmouth My Own Way Home* d 6/1

Today's Selection

2.50 Haydock Autumn Lily – win bet – 15/8 Bet Victor, Sky Bet

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