Tag Archives: Grand Prix

Odds On Value Bet

A lot of people will tell you that a bet is only value if it is big odds.

And that odds on bets cannot be value.

Those people are wrong.

To be value a bet only has to be available at bigger odds than the true chance of the event occurring.

I was reminded of this yesterday when I read an email from the Betfan Formula 1 service.

Rather than me re-write this in my own words I think it will make more sense if I show you the full message from Betfan F1

China Grand Prix

Statistical anomaly means bookies have got it wrong.

It’s happened for the first time this F1 season. Odds compilers have brought their banana skin to work, placed it under their chair leg and then decided to rock themselves on their seat while pricing up the Chinese Grand Prix.

There have been ten Chinese Grand Prix which have featured four Safety Car Periods. As that’s a good-sized sample it’s probably fair to say there is a 40 percent chance of a safety car being deployed this Sunday and 60 percent chance that it is not.

That converts directly into probability of 4/6 for no and 6/4 for yes. Funnily enough the best odds on offer for and against a safety car appearance is 4/6 and 6/5.

Therein lies the huge rick as only two races have actually been effected by a safety car period (when it was deployed twice). It means odds compilers have over-analysed their stats and should actually be betting 20 percent and 80 percent. That’s 1/4 no safety car and 4/1 that there is one.

There is another factor to consider which actually make a NO safety car scenario even shorter than 80 percent:

The last time it was brought into play, 2010, 24 cars lined-up for the race and not the 22 which will face the starter this Sunday. Two less cars means two less cars which can find themselves in a collision or stranded on a dangerous part of the circuit. That equates to eight percent.

Conclusion:

Not an attractive ‘get rich’ price but a hugely out-of-line all the same. 4/6 offers a return way in advance of what your money would if tied up in a five-year savings plan – and should give its yield after 90 minutes as opposed to 260 weeks.

BET – 6 Points on No Safety car @ 4/6

Hopefully the above explains why this bet is value more clearly than I could with hypothetical examples.

But to be clear the chance of a safety car being deployed is about 20% and the bookies have priced it like there is a 40% chance, so the 4/6 no safety car is huge value!

You can find out more about the Betfan F1 Betting service here.

And also I should mention that the Betfan free bets are currently topping the proofing table at Race Advisor and if you don't get their free bets you can sign up for free here.

Today's Selection

Newmarket 2.55 Toofi – win bet – 9/2 Paddy Power, Bet Victor

Formula 1 Betting

Today I have a big discount offer for you on a very comprehensive F1 tipping service.

This very comprehensive service is an absolute bargain price, but once you take off the 33% discount that we've secured it's even better value 🙂

This weeks main tips for the Malaysian Grand Prix are not out yet, but having read the comprehensive preview there is one bet that I'm going to get involved with.

The F1 tipster built up a big argument as to why Lewis Hamilton is huge value at 2/1 to win the Malaysian Grand Prix, but it boils down to the fastest driver in the fastest car is 2/1 to win when they should be odds on.

The bet is to either back Hamilton and lay him off when his price shortens closer to race time, or just back and hold.

You can get 2/1 with Betfred.

There will no doubt be a whole host of additional bets coming as we get closer to the weekend and if you want to be on then join Betfan F1 through our link for a 33% discount.

The regular price is £34.97 + vat for the whole 2014 season, but with this link you go direct to the payment page where you can join for just £23.31 + vat.

Click Here for your discount

Today's Selection

2.00 Lingfield – Drawnfromthepast – win bet – 3/1 Racebets

Lewis for Texas Win

We have a couple of tidbits I want to share with you today, the first is a piece I read in yesterdays Oddschecker newsletter which makes a lot of sense…

F1 heads to Austin, Texas this weekend, and Sebastian Vettel can win a third straight drivers title if he scores 15 points more than Fernando Alonso.

With that in mind, he'll be doing his utmost to avoid a DNF and stick to minimum-risk overtaking. The value lies elsewhere, and it's Lewis Hamilton in his second-to-last race for McLaren who appeals. The car was faster than the Red Bull in Abu Dhabi, and with the desire to break the American market a key feature in Hamilton's move away he'll be itching to win the inaugural US Grand Prix in Austin. Click for full preview and big-priced tips.

Secondly we have a selection from Mark Foley's Trainer Trends along with his breakdown of why it's a selection. Here's Mark's message…

Good morning.
Al Jamal did the business nicely yesterday and Atlantis Crossing was just touched off at a big price.

There is one selection today and it is a recommendation

Thouwra 6.45 Wolverhampton 6/1
Dam won the Lowther and 1000 Guineas; she´s yet to produce a real top-notch runner, with multiple 7f-1m2f winner (including here) Benandonner (106 RPR at peak) the pick off her offspring so far; sire around 17% here and trainer 16% with first-time out juveniles in 2012.

Saeed Bin Suroor
2 yo runners on the AW tracks.
Favourites and 2nd favourites had a high strike rate and were profitable to follow.
The debutants had a good record: Yes
Runners ridden by Ted Durkan had a good record. No

All the best Mark

Saturday Selection

We've had a good week as far as expert contributors go. If you missed any of these posts then I have linked back to them below. We hope to have them all back again in future weeks so if you find them of interest do click through to the contributors website and have a look at what they are offering.

Betting Insiders Club gave us a system for finding winners in long distance races. Click Here.

Carl Nicholson gave an introduction to race reading. Click Here.

And F1 Betting Tips gave us tips for this weekends Grand Prix, Click Here.

Today's Selection

Ascot 3.20 Pastoral Player – each way bet

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