Tag Archives: guest article

In Running Delusion!

Today we have a guest article from Malcolm Pett of http://greyhorsebot.com

1.09 in running just won’t work…

Hi

Every so often we get an influx of support questions about betting in-play and the issues people are getting when they are trying to get matched at 1.09 or whatever the latest fad is regarding this idea.

This idea has been going around in different forms since Betfair began and is based around getting matched as often as you can on the horse that looks like it will win the race.

The normal explanation is that you get on the first runner that drops below a certain price.

It’s started in the early days of getting matched at 1.01 or 1.02 gradually it has moved out to 1.09 or somewhere close.

On paper the ideas may sound feasible but in practice it really doesn’t work that well and here is why…

The problem lies with Betfair’s matching policy.

If you put a “back” bet into the market at 1.09 then only 3 things can happen.

1. You get matched at 1.09
2. You don’t get matched at all.
3. You get matched higher than 1.09.

You get matched at 1.09

If you are lucky and as soon as you put your bet into the market Betfair has enough money on the lay side to match your bet, you will get matched at 1.09.


You don’t get matched at all.

Betfair will not match a back bet under the price you asked for, so if the price has moved past 1.09 IE it has continued shortening you will not get matched.

You get matched higher than 1.09

Betfair’s policy allows them to match a back bet at a higher price than you asked for. This is how the exchange works if they couldn’t do this then Betfair wouldn’t exist.

So if the price drifts because the horse no longer looks like a winner then you will get matched at the higher price.

So with the above in mind let me show you how this idea is flawed.

You are sitting there watching the screen or running a bot that is set to put a bet into the market either on the first runner to hit 1.09 or a pre determined named runner.

The runner hits 1.09 and you place your bet into the market.

So our first assumption is that this runner is likely to win the race because it has hit 1.09.

If it is winning the race (and a lot of people will be watching live at the course checking this) then two things will be happening….

1. All the people out there using a similar strategy will be putting as much money into the market as they can.

2. Many traders will be trying to offset an earlier lay bet.

If this horse is looking like it will win the race that price of 1.09 won’t be there for long…Probably less than a second.

So if you’re doing this manually your probably be too late and even bots may not be quick enough.

The biggest issue will be that Betfair won’t have enough money to match at 1.09 and because they can not match your back bet under 1.09, then you will end up with an “unmatched” bet.

But then we have the other side…

Again we see the price go under 1.09 and we are at the same scenario as before except this time something happens on the course and suddenly our selection is no longer winning.

So the opposite starts to happen and the layers get into the market and probably a lot of traders.

Before we know it the price goes from 1.09 to 1.2 or higher and you are just in line to get matched as soon as Betfair can.

In theory this could be as high as 999 but it doesn’t matter it is over 1.09 so you have been matched on a runner you weren’t expecting. (A runner that no longer looks like winning)

The real point is that you are going to find it easier to get matched on a runner that has hit 1.09 and then goes on to lose, than you will on one that goes on to win.

The complaint we always get from people who do not understand the way Betfair works is that you were matched higher than 1.09.

Yep and that will happen a lot because that’s the way Betfair works!

Just a little more information…

First of all if a runner goes to 1.09 then that would have been your selection. It doesn’t matter what price you get matched at after that, unless your runner goes onto win then you lose your stake.

The point is (according to the rules of the system you are following) the runner did hit 1.09 at some stage so it was a selection.

Secondly if you stick to 1.09 then you probably won’t get matched often enough to make the idea viable.

Thirdly I am sorry to say but I know of people who have created very specialized software to follow this idea.

I believe many of these people also have people at the tracks feeding them information or they have a connection that lets them see the race live.

There are only two ways you may get this idea to work.

When your selections hits 1.09 you put the bet into the market at 1.01 and see how often you get matched and at what price and see if it works.


You put a bet into the market wait a second and then cancel. You either got matched or didn’t but at least you may not have wasted a bet on a runner that ended up losing.

As I said at the beginning on paper the idea seems as if it will work but in practice it is a different matter.

Still some sites still insist on selling this strategy as “easy money”.

I don’t agree.

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm
“The Nerd”

http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

2.35 Goodwood 7 Moonraker – eachway bet – 12/1 Bet 365

Easy Money from In Play Betting

Today we have a guest article from Clive Keeling of What Really Wins Money (WRWM).

WRWM is a monthly newsletter which shares betting strategies every month.

Get full details here – http://whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk

=================

In-Play is where it pays.

The Football Season is upon and I am delighted already, simply because Man City got stuffed by Crystal Palace.

I still made money in this match by laying Crystal Palace 3-1 up at odds of 1.02. City scored a 90th minute goal to bring the Palace odds up to 1.18 allowing for a swift and profitable trade, with minimal risk.

And that’s not been the only end of match highlight this season. Don’t invite me round for tea because I’ll only bore you with stories of how I backed Benfica at odds of 120 ( 119/1 in old money) and actually won.

Take a gander at this thing of beauty…

Easy In Play Profits

I backed Benfica at odds of 4.60, 120 and 27 and came out of the match £389.58 richer.

A whopping £238 of that profit was made with a £2 stake.

So how was it done?

It was a feat as magical as anything Paul Daniels and the Lovely Debbie Magee ever managed.

There were 3 components here…

  • Research ( context)
  • In-Play Betting
  • 85th+ minute betting

Research

I research all football matches I consider betting in, and so should you.

It goes without saying.

Research here pointed to a Benfica side who had lost their first match of the new Portugeuse season.

I bracketed the word Context because this is important.

Last season, Benfica only lost one match all season.

Already this season they have lost their first match and are losing 0-1 at home to Gil Vicente.

To lose the opening 2 matches of the season, when they only lost one match all last season was tantamount to gifting the Portugeuse title to Porto already!

In-Play Betting.

Betting pre-kick off. Pah!

That’s Old Skool , kick it to the kerb girlfriend!

You will consistently get better value waiting for a match to go in-play.

Remember this – there are no foregone conclusions ever and there is no such thing as a sure thing.

Ask 1.25 shots Benfica!

Teams odds will rise and fall dramatically in-play over 90 minutes.

Bet pre kick off if you want, but I’m here you tell you, you can skyrocket your profits in-play.

85th+ Minute

I already alluded to this with the Palace v City match. I would urge you to add this little niche into your football betting portfolio.

Last minute betting in in-play football matches offers you the odds you’ve only ever dreamt of.

So back to Benfica.

Let’s look at the scoreline.

The winning Benfica goals were actually scored in the 92nd and 93rd minutes.

I know because I was following the match and I distinctly remember doing an embarrassing drunken-dad-at-wedding dance when Lima scored the winner.

And if you think this is an isolated incident, let me take you to France.

A certain Paris St Germain were 1.2 shots to beat Guincamp at home.

It was 0-0 at halftime.

It was 0-0 in the 89th minute.

And yes, you guessed it, PSG won 2-0.

I missed this particular pay day thanks to my oh-so-considerate girlfriend insisting we go out!

Last season, I layed the draw in one Olympiakos match at odds of 1.04, and won, and layed the 0-0 correct score in another Olympiakos match at odds of 1.14 and won.

So instead of tuning in at 3pm on a Saturday, tune in at 440pm , check out the scorelines and see if there are any potential shock results which you can exploit by backing and laying on Betfair.

Your risk is small, your potential reward massive.

Who knows? Maybe you’ll be the next person to nab that elusive 100+/1 winning bet!

Clive Keeling – http://whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk

Lay Debutants

I'm pleased to say we had our first losing bet yesterday. Pleased because we have taken the hit and are still well in profit. Here are today's.

14:30:00 Haydock 7 Sitting Pritty (IRE)
15:10:00 Newcastle 1 Chessfield Park
18:50:00 Kempton 7 Laugharne
18:50:00 Kempton 9 Literally On Fire (IRE)
18:50:00 Kempton 12 Rochambeau (IRE)
19:20:00 Kempton 5 Hesbaan (IRE)
20:20:00 Kempton 4 Mia San Triple

Today's Selection

6.20 Kempton Ocean Tempest – eachway bet – 6/1 Bet 365, Boylesports

Arbitrage Betting

Today's guest article is from Betting Insiders contributor Mark Jenkins.

Mark is a full time arber and targets a weekly tax free profit of £1,000 from his arbs.

Here is an excerpt from his article in this months Betting Insiders report…

There are many arbitrage techniques, but generally speaking the more you can break an outcome down the better your chances of finding a money making opportunity.

One of my personal favourites is using HT/FT odds to cover the draw.

For example one recent match saw the best odds available on the draw as 12/5 (3.40 decimal).

By taking the best available HT/FT odds you could achieve 3.51.

You are only interested in the draw at full time so you need to cover the outcomes as follows.

1) Home team at halftime draw at fulltime.
2) Draw at halftime draw at fulltime.
3) Away team at halftime draw at fulltime.

Then whatever is happening at halftime the draw is covered at fulltime.

The odds were, 18/1 (19.00), 9/2 (5.50) and 19/1 (20.00).

It is easy to calculate, again we need to turn the odds to a % so 100/19 + 100/5.5 +100/20 = 28.44% then divide 100 by the % to get the relevant decimal odds 100/28.44% = 3.516.

Now that might not seem like much of an improvement but in arbitrage terms it makes a 1% trade into a 2.5% one and that is a BIG improvement.

Making money through arbitrage is just one way that I make money, there are the regular bonuses offered by the bookmakers to take advantage of, and the little incentives, such as the 1% cash back currently offered by Skrill (formerly Moneybookers), where just by depositing into a bookmaker 1% is given back by way of points that can be cashed in for actual money, this is another way of profiting from your arbitrage activities, making a 0% arb into a profitable trade if you have to deposit.

One of my arbitrage colleagues actually moves his money around every Monday morning to make profits from this incentive.

You can read more of Mark's strategies for risk free cash, including how he made a risk free 75% on an arb, in this months Betting Insiders report.

Betting Insiders Discount Coupon

We have secured a discount code which gives a 20% discount on any Betting Insiders subscription package.

It is limited to the first 50 users.

To use it go to this page http://www.betting-school.com/amember/signup/index/c/cWZ3DwGIX

And in the coupon box enter 756F3618

To read more about Betting Insiders go here http://betting-school.com/private but use the first link (above) to secure the discount, all the bonuses will be the same 😉

Today's Selection courtesy of Betting Insiders

Redc 1735 Sorcellerie (Gen 11/2)

Ante Post Classic Selections

Well Handicapped 3 year olds – 2013

Today we have a guest article from Jon Gibby who is the author the Well Handicapped Three Year Olds series of books published by Raceform.

He is also a regular contributor to the Betting Insiders Report where he shares his winning methods.

Today he shares a very small part of his comprehensive guide to finding big priced ante post selections for the summer classics including the Derby and The Oaks.

The full strategy and selections can be found in the current issue of Betting Insiders.

Here's Jon…

Speed figures are an excellent tool for identifying the best two-year-olds as soon as they make their debuts.

Any 2yo that clocks a Topspeed figure of 80+ first time out is very likely to prove to be at least of Listed class and a significant proportion of them will be Group class.

Very few horses are able to overcome their lack of experience to run so quickly on their debuts and those that do are worth monitoring closely. Those with the right profile in terms of their breeding and connections are likely to be genuine contenders for the Classics.

There are normally about 15 qualifiers each year on average but the small pool of horses the method highlights often includes a Classic winner and other Group 1 performers.

In recent years this method has flagged up the credentials of the Oaks winner Sariska (33/1), St Nicholas Abbey, Workforce and the Fugue.

By getting on these horses ante-post, soon after their debuts, good profits can be made and it is often the case that they can be laid at much shorter odds nearer to the race, thus guaranteeing a return on investment.

It is worth pointing out that Sea The Stars clocked a Topspeed figure of 87 on his debut in a 7f maiden at the Curragh in July 2008, although he didn’t win that day because he was too inexperienced to beat several very good rivals.

The full list of the qualifiers from last year is as follows:

Jon Gibby Classics

 

Betting Insiders Discount Coupon

We have secured a discount code which gives a 20% discount on any Betting Insiders subscription package.

It is limited to the first 50 users.

To use it go to this page http://www.betting-school.com/amember/signup/index/c/cWZ3DwGIX

And in the coupon box enter 756F3618

To read more about Betting Insiders go here http://betting-school.com/private but use the first link (above) to secure the discount, all the bonuses will be the same 😉

Today's Selection courtesy of Betting Insiders

Towc 1630 Henok (Gen 9/4)

By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more information

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.

Close