Tag Archives: Guineas

Hawkeye Amateur Jockey System

Hawkeye TipsToday I want to update you on the system we created as a result of the article by Peter Hawkeye.

By the way Hawkeye Tips is making great profits with 32.4 points profit so far in June which follows on from 37 points in May.

Together since the Flat season kicked off proper with the Guineas meeting that's 69.4 points profit all made from just 28 bets, which is a whopping 247% return on investment.

You can join Hawkeye Tips here http://hawkeyetips.com

So the system.

Last time we wrote about this we came up with…

Bet all horses running on the Flat when ridden by one of these amateur jockeys.

Bethell, Miss H
Birkett, Mr R
Brotherton, Miss S
Collington, Mr P
Foley, Miss A
Hutchinson, Miss A L
Mills, Miss Alice
Walton, Miss C

Since Peter first alerted to this there have been just four bets. Two on the day that we published the article, both in the same race and they gave a 3/1 winner.

Then five days later, again two in the same race giving a 7/2 winner.

As a result of our first system we had two interesting comments.

One said surely Simon Walker should be included?

I'm going to say no! The results show that Simon was profitable in 2012, but not 2011 or 2013. He has a good strike rate but I guess his mounts are just over bet.

The second gave us some rules to improve the system. These were…

No. of Runners = Between 8 And 15

I don't think this rule is necessary, and the less rules the better. Most of the races had between 8 and 15 runners anyway and the ones that didnt fared ok.

Race Type = Non-Handicap Handicap Handicap Maiden

Most of the races were Handicaps (96%) and those that weren't didnt make a profit.

So again keeping things simple I'm going to say Handicaps only.

Month = May, June, July, August, October

All the profit did come in these months and they are the main Flat Turf season months, only 4% of the runs fell outside the main season. We'll include this rule.

Position Odds Market Between 1 And 8

I like me a big priced winner every now and then, and there was some huge profit from the outsiders, so I'm excluding this rule.

Horse Last Race Placing 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th or 6th

Again I see profit across all last time out positions, so I'm not using this rule.

Here's what we're left with.

Amateur Jockey System

When one of these jockeys…

Bethell, Miss H
Birkett, Mr R
Brotherton, Miss S
Collington, Mr P
Foley, Miss A
Hutchinson, Miss A L
Mills, Miss Alice
Walton, Miss C

Rides on the Flat, on Turf in a Handicap between May and October then bet.

The results for the last four years are…

Runs = 353
Wins = 62
Strike Rate = 17.56%
Profit at iSP = 214.88
Return on Investment = 60.87%

This system has a runner today, there is a concern about his ability on the ground conditions, but I'm going to go with a small bet…

Today's Selection

5.25 Salisbury The Happy Hammer – eachway bet – 7/1 Bet 365

The original articles are here http://dailypunt.com/amateur-jockey-system/ and here http://dailypunt.com/amateur-jockey-system-2/

Thanks to Jim Muir and John Curtis for your comments, email me your postal address and I'll send you something from the office 😉

Royal Ascot Selections – Day 2

Royal Ascot Selections – Day 2

As promised we have another Royal Ascot Selection from Nick Hardman today.

Yesterday the free tips we posted finished 1st at even money and 3rd at 12/1, so hopefully you had a few pennies on those. Nick went on to make 4.4 points across the whole card.

If you want all of Nick's selections today you can find them in the Betting School Insiders Club and if you're not already a member you can join here.

http://dailypunt.com/betinsiders

Today the first race is a tougher challenge…

2.30pm Jersey Stakes

From a betting perspective, Day 2 could not get off to a trickier start than a 7f race of 23 runners. As always, cases can be made for many so I will be using cautionary stakes on this one for sure.

At the head of the market are French Guineas 4th Muwaary @11/2 and Irish Guineas 3rd Mustajeeb @13/2.

Both will go close if they improve on those runs. Of the two I prefer Muwaary solely because John Gosden’s horses are running so well and he is the preference of jockey Paul Hanagan.

Aiden O’Brien has won the last two renewals and has three entered here, but they all need to improve on what they have shown this year to get involved.

However, before writing them off it is worth noting that Ishvana won this for O’Brien @20/1 in 2012 when largely unfancied.

Big Time @16/1 for John Joseph Murphy is interesting on his juvenile form (2nd in a Group 2 and 2nd in a Group 1 after winning his maiden).

He made his reappearance in the Irish Guineas and a mile seemed to stretch his stamina.

He has something to find with Mustajeeb on that running but gets 3lb here on that rival and he may well strip fitter for the run.

The horse that beat Big Time in those Group races was Sudirman. He came up short in Group 1 company after that and was a bit disappointing on his reappearance, managing just 4th in a Listed race.

He is another who will improve for the run but all of his winning has been done over 6f. He does rate a big danger if seeing out the trip and 20/1 is tempting.

Elsewhere, Parbold has become expensive to follow since his 2nd in the Coventry at the Royal Meeting last year. His conqueror last time out was That Is The Spirit who made it 3 from 3 in doing so. He has made all in 2 of those wins (and led from halfway in the other) and he might well be taken on for the lead here.

If that happens it would be no surprise to see Parbold reverse the form with Ryan Moore on board.

All in all a fascinating race and really one to watch rather than getting heavily involved in.

If pushed for a tip I would side with Muwaary @11/2 (I wouldn’t want to go any shorter than that) and Big Time at an each-way price of 16/1 (Bet365 go 4 places but offer just 11/1 on Big Time).

Don’t be surprised to see Sudirman @20/1 and Parbold @18/1 outrun their prices.

Investec Oaks Tips

It's Oaks day and if you havn't already you can read Nick's full assessment of the race here http://dailypunt.com/epsom-oaks-selections/

But if you just want the quick summary here it is…

Only 3 favourites have won this race in the last 10 years!

All of the last 10 winners had raced over further than a mile.

Six of the last 10 winners won last time out.

15 of the last 17 winners had a top three finish last time out.

Intimal – Fails the last time out win stat, She has form on good-to-soft, good-to-firm and on tapeta where she won the UAE 100 Guineas and the UAE Oaks over 10 furlongs.

Both were Group 3 races but she followed that up with an excellent third in the 1000 Guineas at the Rowley Mile. Of those at the front of the market I think she represents the best value at 10/1.

Madam Chiang – The lightly raced Madame Chiang is another fascinating runner, especially if the rain gets into the ground between now and race day. (Going is Good today)

She has only seen a racecourse twice; winning her maiden over a mile on soft ground at Yarmouth before winning the Musidora over 10f at York on her seasonal reappearance (also on soft ground).

With plenty of improvement possible and bred to stay the extra 2 furlongs, she also represents value at the current odds of 16/1.

Volume – Luca Cumani’s Volume has possibilities of making the frame. She has yet to finish out of the 3 in 8 races to date, although two of those were handicaps. She also won the trial at Newbury which is the same race where Izzy Top beat Dancing Rain in 2012.

Those two went on to contest the Oaks and finished 3rd and 1st at 25/1 and 20/1 respectively. She has to improve on what she has done so far but if the ground has some juice in it then she looks all about stamina and could be staying on at the end.

Note: Nick's assessment was that both Madame Chiang and Volume would prefer some give in the ground

Best value: Intimal @ 10/1 Bet Victor
Each-way alternative: Madame Chiang @16/1 Paddy Power
Lively outsider: Volume @20/1 (each-way) Sky Bet

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