Tag Archives: halftime

Easy Money from In Play Betting

Today we have a guest article from Clive Keeling of What Really Wins Money (WRWM).

WRWM is a monthly newsletter which shares betting strategies every month.

Get full details here – http://whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk

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In-Play is where it pays.

The Football Season is upon and I am delighted already, simply because Man City got stuffed by Crystal Palace.

I still made money in this match by laying Crystal Palace 3-1 up at odds of 1.02. City scored a 90th minute goal to bring the Palace odds up to 1.18 allowing for a swift and profitable trade, with minimal risk.

And that’s not been the only end of match highlight this season. Don’t invite me round for tea because I’ll only bore you with stories of how I backed Benfica at odds of 120 ( 119/1 in old money) and actually won.

Take a gander at this thing of beauty…

Easy In Play Profits

I backed Benfica at odds of 4.60, 120 and 27 and came out of the match £389.58 richer.

A whopping £238 of that profit was made with a £2 stake.

So how was it done?

It was a feat as magical as anything Paul Daniels and the Lovely Debbie Magee ever managed.

There were 3 components here…

  • Research ( context)
  • In-Play Betting
  • 85th+ minute betting

Research

I research all football matches I consider betting in, and so should you.

It goes without saying.

Research here pointed to a Benfica side who had lost their first match of the new Portugeuse season.

I bracketed the word Context because this is important.

Last season, Benfica only lost one match all season.

Already this season they have lost their first match and are losing 0-1 at home to Gil Vicente.

To lose the opening 2 matches of the season, when they only lost one match all last season was tantamount to gifting the Portugeuse title to Porto already!

In-Play Betting.

Betting pre-kick off. Pah!

That’s Old Skool , kick it to the kerb girlfriend!

You will consistently get better value waiting for a match to go in-play.

Remember this – there are no foregone conclusions ever and there is no such thing as a sure thing.

Ask 1.25 shots Benfica!

Teams odds will rise and fall dramatically in-play over 90 minutes.

Bet pre kick off if you want, but I’m here you tell you, you can skyrocket your profits in-play.

85th+ Minute

I already alluded to this with the Palace v City match. I would urge you to add this little niche into your football betting portfolio.

Last minute betting in in-play football matches offers you the odds you’ve only ever dreamt of.

So back to Benfica.

Let’s look at the scoreline.

The winning Benfica goals were actually scored in the 92nd and 93rd minutes.

I know because I was following the match and I distinctly remember doing an embarrassing drunken-dad-at-wedding dance when Lima scored the winner.

And if you think this is an isolated incident, let me take you to France.

A certain Paris St Germain were 1.2 shots to beat Guincamp at home.

It was 0-0 at halftime.

It was 0-0 in the 89th minute.

And yes, you guessed it, PSG won 2-0.

I missed this particular pay day thanks to my oh-so-considerate girlfriend insisting we go out!

Last season, I layed the draw in one Olympiakos match at odds of 1.04, and won, and layed the 0-0 correct score in another Olympiakos match at odds of 1.14 and won.

So instead of tuning in at 3pm on a Saturday, tune in at 440pm , check out the scorelines and see if there are any potential shock results which you can exploit by backing and laying on Betfair.

Your risk is small, your potential reward massive.

Who knows? Maybe you’ll be the next person to nab that elusive 100+/1 winning bet!

Clive Keeling – http://whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk

Lay Debutants

I'm pleased to say we had our first losing bet yesterday. Pleased because we have taken the hit and are still well in profit. Here are today's.

14:30:00 Haydock 7 Sitting Pritty (IRE)
15:10:00 Newcastle 1 Chessfield Park
18:50:00 Kempton 7 Laugharne
18:50:00 Kempton 9 Literally On Fire (IRE)
18:50:00 Kempton 12 Rochambeau (IRE)
19:20:00 Kempton 5 Hesbaan (IRE)
20:20:00 Kempton 4 Mia San Triple

Today's Selection

6.20 Kempton Ocean Tempest – eachway bet – 6/1 Bet 365, Boylesports

Win Ten Million Pounds This Weekend

Today we've got a football perm, a racing selection, details of some bookie offers and details of the Colossus.

The Colossus is a ten million pound bet for £2 and it starts at 12.45 today.

This one will cost you £2 to enter and you have to predict the correct scores in the 7 Premier League matches today.

The great thing about this bet though is that you can cash in your ticket along the way.

So if things are going your way at halftime you can cash in part or all of your ticket and take some profit.

Check out full details at http://www.colossusbets.com/

Also don't forget your Sky Super 6 bet which is only £100,000 but is free to enter 😉

On the racing front Coral are offering free bets for any 3/1 or bigger winner you back on the TV races. http://coral.co.uk

Bet 365 still offer their free bet on the next TV race if you back a 4/1 or bigger winner. http://bet365.com

Paddy Power are refunding your stake if your selection finishes second to the favourite in any of the TV races today. By the way the Profit Maximiser service shows members how to take maximum advantage of this offer, which pos up regularly with a number of firms.

Football Selections courtesy of The Alternative Punters Syndicate (If you havent joined them yet you really should try their totally free one month trial – Click Here

Top Rated ‘Best 5 Aways'
(Perm any 3 from 5 plus all 5 = 11 bets)

TOTTENHAM
EVERTON
WIGAN
LEYTON ORIENT
CELTIC

The best overall odds* for the ‘Best 5 Aways' are available with… VCBet where it will return £143 for £1 stakes.

Racing Selection

2.20 Newmarket – Majesty – eachway bet – 11/2 Bet 365, Paddy Power

Arbitrage Betting

Today's guest article is from Betting Insiders contributor Mark Jenkins.

Mark is a full time arber and targets a weekly tax free profit of £1,000 from his arbs.

Here is an excerpt from his article in this months Betting Insiders report…

There are many arbitrage techniques, but generally speaking the more you can break an outcome down the better your chances of finding a money making opportunity.

One of my personal favourites is using HT/FT odds to cover the draw.

For example one recent match saw the best odds available on the draw as 12/5 (3.40 decimal).

By taking the best available HT/FT odds you could achieve 3.51.

You are only interested in the draw at full time so you need to cover the outcomes as follows.

1) Home team at halftime draw at fulltime.
2) Draw at halftime draw at fulltime.
3) Away team at halftime draw at fulltime.

Then whatever is happening at halftime the draw is covered at fulltime.

The odds were, 18/1 (19.00), 9/2 (5.50) and 19/1 (20.00).

It is easy to calculate, again we need to turn the odds to a % so 100/19 + 100/5.5 +100/20 = 28.44% then divide 100 by the % to get the relevant decimal odds 100/28.44% = 3.516.

Now that might not seem like much of an improvement but in arbitrage terms it makes a 1% trade into a 2.5% one and that is a BIG improvement.

Making money through arbitrage is just one way that I make money, there are the regular bonuses offered by the bookmakers to take advantage of, and the little incentives, such as the 1% cash back currently offered by Skrill (formerly Moneybookers), where just by depositing into a bookmaker 1% is given back by way of points that can be cashed in for actual money, this is another way of profiting from your arbitrage activities, making a 0% arb into a profitable trade if you have to deposit.

One of my arbitrage colleagues actually moves his money around every Monday morning to make profits from this incentive.

You can read more of Mark's strategies for risk free cash, including how he made a risk free 75% on an arb, in this months Betting Insiders report.

Betting Insiders Discount Coupon

We have secured a discount code which gives a 20% discount on any Betting Insiders subscription package.

It is limited to the first 50 users.

To use it go to this page http://www.betting-school.com/amember/signup/index/c/cWZ3DwGIX

And in the coupon box enter 756F3618

To read more about Betting Insiders go here http://betting-school.com/private but use the first link (above) to secure the discount, all the bonuses will be the same 😉

Today's Selection courtesy of Betting Insiders

Redc 1735 Sorcellerie (Gen 11/2)

Boost Your Bank by Betting at Half Time!!

Today we have a football betting strategy that will increase your profits written by Clive Keeing of What Really Wins Money

You’ve all heard the cliché “It’s a game of 2 halves”, well now you can exploit this fact for profit!

Start betting in the 2nd half of certain matches!

Treat the 2nd half as a match in and of itself.

The first half, therefore, becomes the launch pad for your betting decisions.
Let me explain what I mean by way of 2 Examples from the time I wrote this article..

Cast your mind back to the 15th August 2011, and a match between Manchester City and Swansea City…

Manchester City are rightly clear favourites, but let’s see what the score is at half-time: 0-0 ( you can check this out at www.soccerstats.com )

This is a big surprise. Now if your research had told you that Manchester City are likely winners, and there are likely to be goals in this match too – and if you had confidence in that research, why not enter the betting markets at half-time? (And to be fair, if you had been watching this match you’d have found the difference in class between the two teams glaringly obvious.)

The benefits are clear.

If you fancied Manchester City to win, you would be getting better odds at half-time in in-play markets such as those at www.bet365.com and on betting exchanges like www.betfair.com. Why are the odds on Manchester City bigger than they were pre match?

Quite simply because in-play markets react to occurrences (or in this case, non-occurrences). Further, there are a multitude of other markets that will be offering bigger odds (than pre match).

Such markets include the over/under 2.5 goals markets, and for layers, how about laying the 0-0 at odds far better than pre match? (layers like to see low odds, backers like to see high odds.)

The ideal scoreline to exploit at half-time is the 0-0 but as you will see with other examples later in
the article, we can be flexible.

Let’s look at a few examples of 2nd half betting.

EXAMPLE 1

8:00 FT Braga 3 : 2 Gil Vicente MC
Nuno Gomes 61’
Helder Barbosa 72’
89’ Claudio
Nuno Gomes 90’

In this Portuguese league match, Braga are 1.52 favourites against newly-promoted Gil Vicente.

Braga scored 2 goals against the bottom 6 sides at home last season. Gil Vicente conceded 2 goals against Braga and 3 against Porto (2 sides in the top 3 last season, with Braga 4th last season).

The 0-0 at half-time was therefore a shock… and, inevitably, in the second half the goals arrived.

Possible profit-making areas? – Match odds – back Braga, lay the draw.

Goals markets – back over 1.5 goals, over 2.5 goals.

Correct score market – lay 0-0.

EXAMPLE 2

19:00 FT Elfsborg 1 : 3 Gais h2h
49’ Jesper Floren
54’ Eric Bassombeng
65’Wanderson Do Carmo
Niklas Hult 73’

Elfsborg are 1.33 at home. It is 0-0 at half-time.

My conclusions for this match are repeated here verbatim:

“CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS –
standout 90% overs stats for Elfsborg and they are likely to score 2 minimum at home. similarly, Gais have only failed to score in three matches this season. Ergo over 2.5 goals in the bag already? Gais are one of those nightmare trading teams – why? They are so fecking inconsistent!!”

And the goals flowed in during the 2nd half albeit not for the team I expected. Still, a goals bet at halftime, at value odds, would have been successful.

EXAMPLE 3

13:30 FT Dundee United 0 : 1 Rangers MC
61’ Kyle Lafferty

In this match, rangers were priced at 1.59 away from home against a team they had scored 4-3-4-2 goals against in their last 4 head to heads.

My conclusions:

“CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – good defensive record for Rangers so early and an
emphatic Celtic win already makes this 1.59 of some appeal. Expect early tight exchanges here and the
prospect of a concerted period of 0-0 before a most likely Rangers first goal.”

The match was 0-0 at half-time. And Dundee United had a man sent off. Lay Dundee United at
half-time. Back Rangers to win the 2nd half.

Here’s another half-time score line we can exploit, in this example there is a general tendency for one of the teams to be a strong market leader.

However, the half-time result does not quite reflect the apparent dominance suggested by the odds:

EXAMPLE 4

20:45 FT Derry City 2 : 2 Drogheda h2h
4’ Brian Gannon
38’ Gavin Brennan
Gareth McGlynn 74’
Robert Duggan (og) 88’

Background – Derry are 1.14 favourites to win this match. Extremely strong favourites. However, this is not reflected in the half-time scoreline which sees outsiders Drogheda 0-2 up away from home.

Now is the time to back a comeback by the 1.14 favourites.

What can we do?

Back Derry at odds much better than the prematch odds of 1.14 (we would have lost on this
occasion as Derry did not win the match but would have backed a very short odds team at far greater odds).

Lay Drogheda in the match odds at 0-2 at odds much lower than were available pre match.

Lay 0-2 scoreline in the Correct Score Market.

RECENT EXAMPLES

As this article is taken from the archives of What really Wins Money, I want to include some up to date examples of how we can enter the betting market in time for the 2nd half.

Manchester United – a half time gold mine?

A look at Manchester United’s performances in some matches this season relay that after the Fergie halftime hairdryer, they tend to up their game.

2nd September Halftime Southampton 1 Manchester United 1

The Fulltime result? Southampton 2 Manchester United 3

15th September Halftime Manchester United 0 Wigan 0

Full time Manchester United 4 Wigan 0.

23rd September Halftime Liverpool 0 Manchester United 0

Full time Liverpool 1 Manchester United 2

As an aside, the above match is a great example of an alternative market we can focus in for half time betting, that is the 0-0 correct score market. Laying 0-0 at half time in matches where at least 1 goal is expected is a good policy because 1) we still have a 2nd half to go 2) the liability for the 0-0 correct score will have reduced dramatically from its pre match odds which is good news for layers.

10th November Halftime Aston Villa 1 Manchester United 0

Full time Aston Villa 2 Manchester United 3

17th November halftime Norwich 0 Manchester United 0 ( another opportunity to lay the 0-0 correct score)

Fulltime Norwich 1 Manchester United 0

24th November Halftime Manchester United 0 QPR 0

Fulltime Manchester United 3 QPR 1

Getting to know a team’s habits can also help in determining a halftime strategy. Southampton this season are scoring regularly. So what do you do, as on 10th November, when its 0-0 in the Saints v Swansea match?
You lay said 0-0 as you could have done in a couple of Manchester United matches. I did that at nice odds of 3.5 ( shorter the better for layers) and the 2nd half produced 2 goals.

Look out too for teams such as Real Madrid who as recently as 27th November were playing at home to Alcoyano in the Cup. Guess what the score was at halftime? 0-0. The fulltime score was 3-0 to Real Madrid.

In this instance if a 0-0 would be a huge shock, you can delay your entry into the betting market as late as possible in order to lay the 0-0 at shorter odds or indeed back Real Madrid at better odds. This tactic I call Delay-react-trade and is something for a future article.

Bottom line

Turn your football betting into 2nd half betting. Here are the advantages:

– The odds in all markets will offer greater value (using in-play facilities at bookmakers such as
www.bet365.com and www.betfair.com) because the expected result has not materialised.

– Backers can back their original fancies at better odds.

– Layers can lay markets at lower odds (and remember betting exchange layers want low odds when they lay).

– There will be greater urgency in the 2nd half for a fancied team to redress the balance. Halftime
team talks can work wonders (ask Benitez in THAT Champions League Final).

So which matches do you choose?

Quite simply, let the bookmakers do the work for you. Focus on matches where one team’s odds
indicate they are the hot favourites. I normally focus on matches where one team is 1.6 odds or over and wait until half-time.

If what was expected has not occurred by halftime, consider using in-play bookmakers or betting
exchanges like Betfair, and utilise the value odds available for both backers and layers.

Today's Racing Selection courtesy of Value Backing Extra.

Sandown 2.55 Dashing George 1/4pt win @ 4`1 Bet365 BOG

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