Tag Archives: handicapper

Football and Racing Tips

I had a bet last night for today's Cheltenham meeting that demonstrates how far you can beat the market by following tipsters who do their own race assessments rather than waiting for markets to form and letting those markets influence their decisions.

At 5pm yesterday the Racing consultants sent their members a note telling them to get on a horse that was available at 8/1 and that on their assessment should be much shorter.

I had my little tenner on with Bet 365 and now the horse is 5/1 with Bet 365 and best priced 11/2.

This horse might lose, but to me it will be remembered as a good bet whether it wins or loses because it is my strong opinion that you should judge your bets by how much you beat starting price not by whether they win or lose.

This might sound crazy to some readers. But others will know that if you keep beating starting price by big margins that the profits will take care of themselves.

I'm going to give you the bet and the full assessment in a minute, but first I'd like to recommend that whether it wins or loses that if you are serious about winning that you join the Racing Consultants service.

These guys send out bets like this one on a regular basis and they beat the market.

http://racingconsultants.co.uk

By the way they sent another one at 5.20, but I'm not allowed to give that one, but if you join them you can get immediate access.

Here's the race assessment and bet…

2.25 FREEBETS.COM TROPHY CHASE (2M5F)

“Little Jon impressed me enough as a hurdler last year despite his build and background suggesting he’d be much better over fences, and he proved the point at the first time of asking at Newton Abbot in October, giving weight and a beating to the Paul Nicholls-trained Solar Impulse.

That preceded a trio of runs in higher company here, and the bottom line is that the long-striding son of Pasternak hasn’t beaten another rival.

That said, he actually ran a cracker when a close third over 2m in November, and has crashed out when leading on his next two starts.

Despite those aberrations, he appeals as a pretty sound jumper, if inclined to take the occasional fence (or indeed wing) on.

The upside of his failures is that he’s not revealed the full extent of his ability, and therefore the handicapper hasn’t been as severe as he might have been, accepting that an opening mark of 140 is no gimme.

Main opposition comes primarily in the shape of Easter Day for Paul Nicholls, and he can’t be ruled out of calculations, for all his odds will be skinny enough.

More interesting at the forecast prices is Annacotty, who was second in the novice handicap on this card last year. He was another who couldn’t cope with the demands of the Hennessy first time out, but he’s reportedly been perked up by a spell hunting, and also has cheekpieces fitted, so should have no excuses.

He was a Grade 1 winner last year, and that fact shouldn’t be overlooked.

2.25 Chel – 2pts win Little Jon @ 8/1 (Bet365)”

As mentioned above current best price is 11/2 with Skybet, Bet Victor, Paddy Power

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We had a win last week with The Alternative Punters Syndicate (Free Trial Here)
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Coral

Ayr Gold Cup Selections

Today we have our weekly big race insights from Nick Hardman of the Betting School Insiders Club http://dailypunt.com/betinsiders

It doesn’t come much harder than a 27 runner 6f handicap.

So how about three 27 runner handicaps in the space of two days?

I probably wouldn’t be doing my job if I were to turn down the opportunity to try and decipher the Ayr Bronze, Silver and Gold Cups – three of the toughest handicaps in the flat racing calendar.

The draw could play a huge role in the outcome of all three races and we will have a much better idea of draw bias by Saturday but for now we will start with the Bronze Cup on Friday.

The Bronze Cup was first run in 2009 so we have no real trends to go on and I will look to two trainers who do particularly well with their sprint handicappers at this meeting.

First up is Richard Fahey and he saddles Gatepost and Polski Max. The former is hard to win with but I like the fact he is running well and is as equally effective over 7f as he is over 6f.

If they go hell for leather then stamina as well as speed could come into play and Gatepost may well be there at the finish passing beaten horses.

Polski Max is very well handicapped and was once rated as high as 97 back in May last year. He races here off 79 and looked to be returning to form with a close up ¾ length 4th at Ripon last time out.

Dandy Nicholls is the “sprint king” and he has Bajan Bear, Fitz Flyer, Galvanize and Layla’s Hero in the line-up.

Bajan Bear is the choice of stable jockey Adrian Nicholls and will go close if bouncing back from a rare poor effort last time.

Layla’s Hero is admirably consistent and is 3lb well in under a penalty. He has not finished outside the three in his last 5 outings. These two are probably the pick of his quartet although it would be no great shock were any one of his runners to win this.

At the prices I will plump for the Fahey pair:

Ayr Bronze Cup 2.40pm – Gatespost @16/1 e/w & Polski Max @12/1 e/w (5 places)

Telmeyd is a worthy favourite in the Silver Cup on Saturday but at a best priced 7/1 I feel obliged to take him on.

Bogart for Kevin Ryan should go close if maintaining his current upward curve.

That is a big “if” but at 14/1 I am happy to back him each-way.

A winner of the 2yo Trophy at Redcar in 2011, he was once rated as high as 110 as a 3yo. He last won off a mark of 97 in August 2013 and put in his best effort since then when second to smart prospect Muthmir in the Portland last week.

He races off the same mark here (93) and a reproduction of that effort should see him go close from his (potentially) nice draw in stall 25.

If you ran this race 20 times you would probably get 20 different winners so I will stick with Bogart as my sole selection:

Ayr Silver Cup Saturday 2.40pm – Bogart @14/1 (e/w, 5 places)

Kevin Ryan has won the Ayr Gold Cup 3 times in the last 7 years, including back to back wins in 2011 and 2012. He runs York Glory, Blaine, Hamza and 2012 winner Captain Ramius.

Of the quartet it is the talented, but quirky, Blaine who makes most appeal. He has rediscovered his form this season with 2 wins in-between unseating his rider and finishing almost plumb last in the Steward’s Cup.

Kevin Ryan was quoted as saying he is in great form and will love the predicted fast ground.

The trends point towards a horse aged 4yo to 5yo, rated between 97 – 100, had at least 6 runs in the season and who has form over further than 6f.

One who ticks quite a few of those boxes is Go Far who was an unlucky 6th in the Portland and was doing his best work at the end. I will take these two against the field:

Ayr Gold Cup Saturday 3.50pm – Blaine @16/1 and Go Far @25/1 (e/w, 5 places)

Musselburgh Recap

We have racing at Musselburgh this afternoon, so today I'm going to revisit the pointers that Nick Hardman gave us a few weeks ago regarding trainers at this meeting.

Nick pointed us at a number of trainers that perform well at Musselburgh, with details of what types they excel with.

One of those trainers has runners today so we will look at the stats for Philip Kirby.

Nick's advice was to back Philip Kirby handicappers over 7 furlongs and longer.

Looking at the numbers I see that Mr Kirby concentrates on Handicaps, with 78 runs in Handicaps and only 7 in non Handicaps. (Musselburgh, last 4 years)

All of the non Handicap runners have lost.

The other pointer was to only bet at 7 furlongs or longer.

In fact there have only been two runs at below 7 furlongs, both lost.

Following the prescribed rules would have given the following returns over the past 4 years.

Runs = 76
Wins = 20
Strike Rate = 26.3%
Profit at iSP = 67.66
ROI iSP = 89.03%

Today Philip has…

Muss 4.10 Pass Muster (2 mile Handicap)
Muss 4.40 Iftikaar (7 furlong Handicap)

Newcastle Trainer Trends

Today Nick Hardman of Betting School Insiders Club takes a look at key trends for both jockeys and trainers at the Newcastle meeting.

Don't forget you can get free winning tips from the Betting School every weekend when you register on their site at http://betting-school.com.

We landed a nice winner and a few placed finishers at decent odds last Friday and this week we head off to Newcastle. The three trainers of interest are Michael Dods, Richard Guest and Tony Coyle who boast course strike rates of 16%, 16% and 19%. If we dig a little deeper we can improve on those statistics by targeting certain races and certain types of horse.

Michael Dods does exceptionally well with his 3yo handicappers at Newcastle. He has had 11 winners from 37 runners at strike rate of 30% and a level stakes profit of £27.05 since 2010. He sends the following horses to Newcastle on Friday:

2.30pm Cara’s Request & Escape To Glory in 7f handicap
3.00pm Blackfoot Brave in the 7f maiden
3.35pm Trinity Star in the 1m 2f handicap
5.10pm Dartrix in the 6f handicap

Trinity Star is the only 3yo handicapper from those horses listed above. Paul Mulrennan takes the ride on Escape To Glory, Blackfoot Brave and Trinity Star. He has ridden 3 winners from 5 rides for Michael Dods at Newcastle since 2012. Connor Beasley takes the ride on Dartrix and the Dods/ Beasley pairing have combined well this season including two winners from their last 4 starts.

Our next trainer is Richard Guest. If we concentrate on his 2yo – 4yo handicappers he has had 16 winners from 62 runners at a strike rate of 26% and a level stakes profit of £85.42 since 2010. He has a fantastic 42% place strike rate too, so backing all those runners each-way would have increased profits to £111.52. On Friday he saddles the following runners:

2.00pm Penalty Scorer in the 5f Nursery
2.30pm Johnny Cavagin & Sakhalin Star in the 7f handicap
5.10pm Hazza The Jazza in the 6f handicap

Penalty Scorer (2yo), Sakhalin Star (3yo) and Hazza The Jazza (4yo) will all be ridden by Duiilo Da Silva who claims a useful 5lbs. Richard Guest’s last 5 runners at the track have finished 21112.

Our final trainer is Tony Coyle who does quite well with his handicappers of any age. He has had 7 winners from 32 runners at a strike rate of 22% and a level stakes profit of £24.00 since 2010. He has an impressive 48% place strike rate, so backing all those runners each-way would have increased profits to £41.62. On Friday he saddles the following runners:

2.00pm Snoway in the 5f Nursery
3.00pm Molly Approve in the 7f maiden
3.35pm Shirocco Passion in the 1m 2f handicap

Snoway is perhaps his most interesting runner stepping up into handicap company for the first time after showing some ability in 3 maidens so far. She finished 4th on both her first two outings in Class 5 company before finishing a disappointing 10th of 12 in a Class 3 at York.

If we go strictly by the strongest statistics, the qualifiers are:

2.00pm Penalty Scorer @7/2 & Snoway @14/1 in the 5f Nursery
2.30pm Johnny Cavagin 14/1 & Sakhalin Star @25/1 in the 7f handicap
3.35pm Trinity Star @5/1 & Shirocco Passion @25/1 in the 1m 2f handicap
5.10pm Hazza The Jazza @12/1 in the 6f handicap

However, anything saddled by Michael Dods is worth a second look in the market whilst Tony Coyle’s horses look to be the outsiders in our list, especially Shirocco Passion who has shown nothing in 3 runs this year.

Today's Selection

6.30 Newmarket Manshaa – win bet 7/2 bet 365, bet victor

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