Tag Archives: higher mark

Bookies Enemy Free Tip

Today we have a free tip from the Bookies Enemy No 1 service for you.

The brains behind this service is Gary Poole and he is a freakin genius when it comes to spotting horses that are improving and ready to win.

Gary launched his Bookies Enemy No 1 service on July 9th last year and since then he's made his members 302 points profit.

Even modest £10 per point stakers have made over £3,000 profit from his selections.

That averages out at £500 a month profit to £10 stakes.

Gary has two bets today, and the one I'm sharing below is a one point bet.

You can get immediate access to Gary's two point bet when you join him at http://bookiesenemyno1.com

5.00 Wolverhampton: Flighty Clarets

Flighty Clarets was a bit disappointing last time at Lingfield but he did race wide for a lot of the race plus that was a much better quality field than today's.

He ran well here over 5f on his return from a break and a 5lb higher mark and with his two best all-weather runs both at this track I'm starting to think he might be better on this tapeta surface.

Richard Fahey his trainer won this race last year with Layla's Oasis and if Flighty Clarets can follow in her footsteps and improve for the application of cheekpieces then he has to be competitive at this level.

1 point win bet 9/1 Bet 365, Bet Victor

Big Race Tips

Thank Nick it's Friday 🙂

Nick Hardman (http://bettinginsiders.com) is back with tips for today's racing at Exeter and tomorrow at Sandown and Aintree.

By the way Nick also has an excellent article in the December On Course Profits magazine which explains his methods for finding winning trainer angles.

You can get that magazine for free at http://oncourseprofits.com

Over to Nick…

I have been working on some betting angles for the AW Championships that I will share with you as soon as they are ready. For a bit of a change I have taken a look at Friday’s card from Exeter which features three valuable races. We follow that up with a trends analysis and some pointers for the Becher Chase and my fancies for the Tingle Creek and the Grand Sefton Handicap Chase.

Exeter hosts a really good card today including a £12k Novice Chase, a £15k Handicap Chase and the £12k Devon Marathon Handicap chase over 4 miles. I have gone through the card in search of value plays and worthwhile betting opportunities.

The novice chase at 1.10pm is a fascinating race featuring a couple of smart former hurdlers in Deputy Dan (2nd in the 2014 Albert Bartlett and rated 145 over hurdles) and Saphir Du Rheu (Lanzarote hurdle winner and Welsh Champion hurdle winner last season and rated 168). Deputy Dan has form figures 21 over fences.

He was beaten on debut by Virak who has since followed up in impressive fashion at Haydock. Deputy Dan won his next start, beating Far West who was also a decent hurdler. That gives him a form line with Dunraven Storm (who also beat Far West) who won a Grade 2 Novice Chase at Cheltenham’s November meeting.

Saphir Du Rheu unseated on debut but is held in high regard by Paul Nicholls and he would win this if translating his hurdles form to fences. Connections (same ownership as Big Buck’s and Celestial Halo) have said they might go back over hurdles if he fails to perform here. If you think he won’t get round you can lay him for a place on the exchanges at around 1.10. If pushed for a tip I would go for Deputy Dan on that form line with Dunraven Storm.

The handicap chase at 1.40pm will probably see Paul Nicholl’s Wilton Milan go off favourite following an impressive win last time out that saw him finally get off the mark over fences. However, I am happy to take him on and the two that interest me are Workbench and Umberto D’Olivate.

Workbench has been on the go since August notching 3 wins in the process. His last two starts were a decent 5th of 11 behind John’s Spirit at Cheltenham and a 4th (revised to 3rd) in the Badger Ales Trophy over further than ideal. He travelled as well as anything that day before making a bad mistake.

The drop in trip could work out well but the concern is that all three wins came on good ground. His trainer Dan Skelton has said he does not want it soft. However, his last two runs were on good to soft so I will definitely be backing him if the going has the word “good” in it.

Umberto D’Olivate was very progressive last season, rattling off a hat-trick and he will come on for his seasonal reappearance. The slight concern is that his best form is over shorter so this trip might just stretch him.

The Devon Marathon Chase has a small field and the 4 miles takes some getting. It is another race that features a few horses with smart previous form and it also lends itself to a trends analysis.

No 6yo has won this since 2000 and no horse in that time has carried more than 11st 10lbs to victory. All of the last 5 winners were rated 110+ and all of the winners completed their previous race.

That leaves us with Reblis, Adrenalin Flight and Gorgehous Lliege.

Reblis is back down to his last winning mark but has shown nothing on his last two starts. He has won over 3m 5f on heavy off today’s mark of 119 so should see out the trip if in the right mood.

Adrenalin Flight has 49 lengths to find with Gorgehous Lliege but gets a 17lb pull in the weights. I doubt that will make much difference though as Gorgehous Lliege looks quite progressive over staying trips and should go close if this does not come too soon.

Reblis and Gorgehous Lliege are the two trends horses against the field. For the brave amongst you, Flying Award has won a Devon National, a Highland National and a Somerset National. However, his form figures since read PP0. I’ll leave that one up to you.

The Becher Chase is run over the Grand National fences where the horses jump 21 obstacles over a trip of 3m 2f. 16 of the last 17 winners had a top 5 finish LTO. Only one 7yo has won since 1997 and 8 of the last 9 winners were aged 9yo or older. The last 9 winners were all rated 130+ and only one of the last 13 winners carried 11st 7lb or more. In fact 10 of the last 13 winners carried under 11st. 15 of the last 17 winners had between 0 and 2 season runs and 8 of the last 11 winners had won over 3m or further.

The one horse who ticks all the boxes is Benbens for Nigel Twiston-Davies. The two that who fall down on just the one trend are Knock A Hand for Richard Lee and Renard for Venetia Williams. This may be a prep run for Knock a Hand ahead of a tilt at the Welsh National, Benbens has had just 6 chase starts and Renard looks a shade high in the weights. None of these are really fancied in the market and I have not seen them tipped up anywhere, but we rolled the trends dice and that’s what we have.

If you are not a fan of trends then there are a couple of other ways of looking at the race and one is course experience.

There are plenty of horses who have shown they jump these fences well including Saint Are, last year’s winners Chance Du Roy and Mr Moonshine. However the most interesting could be Across The Bay @25/1 who led the last two Grand Nationals for a fair way.

In 2013 he led until fence 26 and last year he was bowling along in front until carried into a different post code by a loose horse after fence 16. However, usual jockey Jason Maguire opts to ride Donald McCain’s other runner Kruzhlinin who is an even bigger price @40/1.

Despite this I think Across The Bay could well give each-way backers a run for their money. Saint Are @14/1 is probably the best handicapped horse in the race here off 127 which is 10lbs lower than his last winning mark. He ran his best race in a long time on his first start for Tom George at Cheltenham in November and he has attracted some support this week. It’s a wide open race and a case can be made for most of the runners. I will probably back the trends horses and Across The Bay to small stakes with any bookmaker offering 5 places. It would be a pleasant surprise if one of them were to win.

The Grand Sefton Chase looks like a cracking renewal. The trends on this one are not that strong but the one horse that ticks the most boxes (aged 8yo -10yo, rated 123+, carrying less than 11st 5lbs and a top 5 finish LTO) is Rebel Rebellion who attempts back to back wins off a 5lbs higher mark. 8/1 is plenty short enough.

One I like at a bigger price is Dolatulo who has a good form line through Court By Surprise (promoted to winner of the Badger Ales Trophy after disqualification of Young Master) whom he walloped by 35 lengths at Stratford back in March. His seasonal reappearance behind Sound Investment was a great prep for this race considering the 1st and 4th from that race occupied the front two places of the novice chase at Newbury on the first day of the Hennessy meeting. Up To Something for Charlie Longsdon could also outrun his price if taking to these fences.

The Tingle Creek has been far more straightforward for me. I think God’s Own has a huge chance and I have backed him @9/2 even when he held another entry in the novice chase on the same card. If Somersby brings his A-game he should give each-way backers a decent run for their money @10/1.

So there are my thoughts for Friday and Saturday and hopefully a few pointers for you. Racing is all about having an opinion and the conviction to back it up with a wager. With that in mind only back the selections below if you agree with my thoughts and analysis. Good luck if you are having a bet this weekend.

Friday

Exeter 1.10pm Deputy Dan @6/4
Exeter 1.40pm Umberto D’Olivate @12/1 & Workbench @6/1 (good or good-to-soft)
Exeter 3.20pm Reblis @20/1 & Gorgehous Lliege 3/1 (trends horses), Flying Award @20/1 (for the brave)

Saturday

Sandown 3.00pm God’s Own @9/2 and Somersby @10/1 (each-way alternative)
Aintree 1.30pm Benbens @20/1, Knock A Hand @20/1 & Renard @25/1 (trends horses), Across The Bay @25/1 (each-way alternative), Saint Are @14/1 (best handicapped)
Ainree 3.25pm Rebel Rebellion @8/1 (trends horse) and Dolatulo 14/1 (each-way alternative)

Peter Marsh Chase Analysis

I've managed to bag a detailed analysis of the Peter Marsh Chase today.

I've also got the usual football tips, which you'll find further down the page.

So the analysis of the Peter Marsh Chase comes from David Massey who is a well respected voice in the world of Horse Racing and one of the experts who contributes to the Betting Insiders Club.

And it is the Betting Insiders Club who have kindly provided this analysis to us.

If you have a minute I'm sure it would help us secure similar material in the future if lots of readers clicked this link and visited their page this weekend 😉 ==> http://bettinginsiders.com

Peter Marsh Chase – Saturday 18th January, Haydock (3.15 Channel 4)

No great pattern in terms of the winners in the last few years, with weights ranging from 10-3 to 11-10. The McCains have won it twice in the last ten years and this often goes, as you’d expect to a Northern trainer who is adept with handicappers, although both Venetia Williams and David Pipe have gatecrashed the party in the past decade. Don’t be frightened of backing something at a price either – only one favourite has obliged in the last 10 years and there’s been 20-1 and 33-1 winners too. Only the 10 runners for tomorrow’s renewal but the fact it is 5-1 this morning tells you it is wide open.

Vino Griego (G Moore, 11-10, 10-1)

Bounced right back to form with victory over two higher rated rivals in the Future Stars at Sandown but handicapper has taken that at face value when perhaps he shouldn’t have and has given him a kicking to the tune of 8lb for winning it. But Rolling Aces simply didn’t stay after being given too positive a ride and Harry Topper came from a stable that was clearly sick at the time so he’s ended up almost winning by default. Whilst the ground is no issue, these fences might be (often gives one a belt) and off a new high handicap mark against some younger, improving horses, isn’t difficult to give the elbow too.

Katenko (V Williams, 11-8, 5-1)

Still the one horse in the field with pretensions of being more than a handicapper and let’s not forget how he destroyed future Paddy Power winner Johns Spirit about this time last year at Sandown, always in the front line, jumping well and staying on strongly to give him 3lb and a 9l beating. Was still travelling well in this years Hennessey when coming to grief at the 14th, and not difficult to think that the Aintree race simply came too soon for him after that. Been given time to recover since then, and with a staying test in the mud likely to prove up his street, has to go on the shortlist for a trainer that’s won this before.

The Minack (P Nicholls, 11-5, 10-1)

Not seen for two years but has won after a break before (although not this long) and a superb win record of 7-12 (very lightly raced for a 10-y-o). Won the 2011 Badger Ales after 7 months off, gamely holding off Meanus Dandy from the same yard, but his Ascot win afterwards shows you that the handicapper has given him a real chance today if he’s fit enough – he gave Vino Griego 15lb and a beating yet today gets 5lb from him (Reve De Sivola back in third and future National winner Neptune Collonges back in fourth – a solid looking piece of form). Whilst he’s never tackled heavy ground, he has no problem with genuinely soft ground, and with both Sydney Paget and Vintage Star in the field to ensure a good pace, should get the race run to suit. Not discounted by any means.

Chance Du Roy (P Hobbs, 10-10, 10-1)

Not for the first time found Aintree’s fences to his liking when winning the Becher Chase there early December and gets a fairly harsh 8lb for winning a length for that. That still leaves him on a mark he has won off before, but only once has he followed up after a win (back in 2010) and it might just have been that catching him fresh on a course he likes might have been the key. Has won at Haydock too, however, and with trainer in superb form isn’t totally dismissed, but he doesn’t make my shortlist.

Sydney Paget (D McCain, 10-9, 7-1)

Threw a stinker in at Wetherby last time (gave up pretty quickly when headed) but previous win here over C & D looks pretty decent at face value. However, dig a little deeper and not difficult to shoot a through holes through that form (it’s not really working out that well, was getting weight too) and even after a 3lb drop for the Wetherby effort he’s still 10lb higher than that win. Ground no problem but not difficult to see Vintage Star and Night Alliance giving him hassle mid-race, and could easily find things happening around him that aren’t to his liking again. Happy to swerve him at the price.

Vintage Star (S Smith, 10-8, 7-1)

Stable in good nick this week and not difficult to see this one running a good race either, being just 4lb higher than two good efforts in November, firstly beating Buddy Bolero at Carlisle (only fair form) but bettered that in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle, narrowly going down to an on-song Hey Big Spender. Difficult to crab his effort in the Welsh National either, where he travelled well into the race but seemed to find the extended trip against him. No problem with this ground and still looks on a mark he can do some damage off. Could find himself some space behind the leader to do his own thing, and is shortlisted.

Merry King (J J O’Neill, 10-4, 5-1)

Not difficult to see why he’s near the front of the market as one that’s been running well in top class staying handicaps without getting near the front, and is probably still a few pounds in front of the handicapper. Visor goes on for the first time, but for me he’s not screamed out that he needs one, I don’t see him as lazy, so it will be interesting to see how he goes in it. Finished just in front of Vintage Star in the Welsh National but Vintage Star was put into the race much earlier and even on slightly worse terms I could see the form being reversed over the shorter trip. Trainer in very patchy form as well and looks underpriced to me. Races from 1lb out of the handicap.

Night Alliance (Dr R Newland, 10-4, 8-1)

Another trainer in superb form but handicapper has reacted very badly to his win here in the Tommy Whittle, raising him 13lb for it (effectively 16lb as he’s 3lb out of the handicap here.) The form of that looks okay, however, with second Loch Ba putting up a decent effort in the Betfred Classic last weekend and fourth Samstown narrowly defeated (albeit in lesser company) next time out. He is a pretty straightforward ride though, usually happy to sit midfield before making a mid-race move, and that’s a worry for me with Tom Scudamore on board. Not difficult to see a scenario where he gets involved in a duel with Sydney Paget for a while and expends too much energy, leaving little for the finish. That, plus the new mark, is enough to put me off him, just.

Wychwoods Brook (E Williams, 10-4, 16-1)

Racing from 7lb out of the handicap here, making an already difficult looking task even more so. Picked up long time leader Henry King with the minimum of fuss at Lingfield but that was a 0-120 over half a mile shorter so big questions to answer here off an 11lb higher mark. On the plus side is unexposed and breeding gives hope that he will stay, and seems a bit of a natural over the bigger obstacles but it’s surely asking too much at this stage of his career to take a competitive race such as this.

Valoroso (R Woollacott, 10-4, 16-1)

Another racing from well out of the handicap, being 8lb wrong here. Had the 6 jumps starts and fencing is far from perfect yet (a fall and a UR already on the card, and mistakes again last time) but will at least appreciate the likely good pace (can take a hold). Travelled well again at Kempton last time, not for the first time, but got worried out of it close home by the useful Ma Filleule. Looks all about staying and whilst it’s difficult to see him winning, he could represent some value on the exchanges as a back-to-lay option in running.

Conclusion

The shortlist of three is Vintage Star, Katenko and The Minack, and choosing between the three isn’t easy. The long lay off of The Minack is just, only just, enough to put me off so I’m having two win bets on KATENKO at 5-1, who could yet prove a cut above these, and a small saver on VINTAGE STAR, who is keeping his form well and with the stable in form, I can see him reversing form with Merry King over this trip.

Football Selections

We had another winning week with these football selections last week.

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Top Rated ‘Best 5 Aways'
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LEYTON ORIENT
FALKIRK

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Dropped Handicap Ratings

Back in April I had an idea for a winning system.

I can't remember where the idea came from, but most likely it was from something that I read.

It was a simple idea…

Horses that are running off of a lower official rating today than they did last time should win more than those that have a higher mark.

Although many might think that this means the horse is losing ability and is on the decline, the fact is that trainers spend a lot of time trying to get the OR of their charges lowered.

I spent some time researching different handicap marks to find where this idea might do best.

Today I'll share one of those systems with you and (er) show you that finding winning angles in past results is no guarantee of future winnings.

In fact this may become a new lay system such has been the performance since April.

Now first I should say that this is a National Hunt system, so it may be a summer off season thing, although past results show profit in the summer.

So the rules were…

National Hunt
Today's Rating between 110 – 120
Last times ratings greater than 110
Course = Aintree, Carlisle, Cartmel, Ffos Las, Folkestone, Fontwell, Plumpton, Sedgefield, Southwell

The profits at the time I researched this were not great and luckily for that reason I decided not to include them in my bets, the return on investment was 8.5%.

Since I created the system there has been a loss of 58.93 points & -44% ROI.

The key thing to take from this is that when you research a system that you should test it on a separate set of data to see if the idea stands up.

Although I try hard not to back fit systems we are looking for the best results from past data. This system is a reminder of the dangers of backfitting.

And a reminder that we should always check a bought system has been tested live somewhere before we pay money for it.

Next step with this is to decide whether we can lay these selections, that decision is a way down the line yet as I want to see more live results and may want to tweak it towards more losers. IE I obviously looked for the most profitable courses originally whereas if I'm thinking of laying these then I want to look at negative aspects.

I'll keep you posted.

Today's Lay Debutants

14:20:00 Leicester 5 Freemason
14:20:00 Leicester 10 Moxey
14:20:00 Leicester 13 Syros (IRE)
15:00:00 Redcar 4 Focusofourthoughts (IRE)
15:00:00 Redcar 1 Garfunkel (IRE)
16:20:00 Leicester 7 Mississippi Queen
16:20:00 Leicester 12 Surcingle (USA)
16:20:00 Leicester 13 Sweeping Up
16:30:00 Redcar 12 Kalanis Diamond
16:30:00 Redcar 3 Tasrih (USA)

Today's Selection courtesy of CB Sports Investments

2.50 Leicester Talented Kid – win bet – 9/4 Bet Victor, Boylesports, Sky Bet

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