Tag Archives: Home team

Winning Football Trends

I've just read a very interesting article in this months Secret Betting Club newsletter.

The article looks at fluctuations in the winning percentages of various football bets and at how these fluctuations might have effected your betting.

And probably more importantly how you might feel about your betting method and how your decisions about strategies may have been impacted.

For example, you could have backed every home team priced below 1.9 so far this season and made a nice profit of 25.73 points and a return on investment of 8.22%.

This is from betting in English Premiership, Championship, League One, League Two, Conference and Scottish Premiership.

That's the good news, the bad news is that only one other year has shown a profit since 2005 and that particular year made a 0.03% return on investment.

And it's likely that the same strategy would not make a profit again next year.

But if you just started this year betting teams that fall into this category, this season, you would likely think you were onto a winning method. Especially of the results continued to the end of the season and ended in profit.

Nest season you might be excited to get started and be prepared to bet at larger stakes in order to increase your profits.

Only to meet a losing year.

This article is 7 pages of detailed info with lots of interesting points, skipping ahead now to another interesting point that caught my eye.

That is how few matches have to go against you to turn a winning year into a losing year.

Here's a table shared in the article…

SBC Required Wins

 

You can see that if you are betting at odds of 2.0 that for every 100 bets if 55 win you will make a 10%, but if only 45 win you will make a 10% loss.

What's interesting is that when you move up to odds of 5.0, just 2 bets going for you or against you can make a huge difference.

Looking at the 5% profit column we can see that at 5.0 that 21 wins out of 100 will give us a 5% profit, but if that drops down to 19 wins we lose 5%.

You can read the full article in the February edition of the Secret Betting Club newsletter – Click Here

Today's Selection courtesy of Betting Insiders

15:00:00 Southwell Sin Bin – win bet – 13/8 Bet 365, Paddy Power, Sky Bet, Bet Victor

Arbitrage Betting

Today's guest article is from Betting Insiders contributor Mark Jenkins.

Mark is a full time arber and targets a weekly tax free profit of £1,000 from his arbs.

Here is an excerpt from his article in this months Betting Insiders report…

There are many arbitrage techniques, but generally speaking the more you can break an outcome down the better your chances of finding a money making opportunity.

One of my personal favourites is using HT/FT odds to cover the draw.

For example one recent match saw the best odds available on the draw as 12/5 (3.40 decimal).

By taking the best available HT/FT odds you could achieve 3.51.

You are only interested in the draw at full time so you need to cover the outcomes as follows.

1) Home team at halftime draw at fulltime.
2) Draw at halftime draw at fulltime.
3) Away team at halftime draw at fulltime.

Then whatever is happening at halftime the draw is covered at fulltime.

The odds were, 18/1 (19.00), 9/2 (5.50) and 19/1 (20.00).

It is easy to calculate, again we need to turn the odds to a % so 100/19 + 100/5.5 +100/20 = 28.44% then divide 100 by the % to get the relevant decimal odds 100/28.44% = 3.516.

Now that might not seem like much of an improvement but in arbitrage terms it makes a 1% trade into a 2.5% one and that is a BIG improvement.

Making money through arbitrage is just one way that I make money, there are the regular bonuses offered by the bookmakers to take advantage of, and the little incentives, such as the 1% cash back currently offered by Skrill (formerly Moneybookers), where just by depositing into a bookmaker 1% is given back by way of points that can be cashed in for actual money, this is another way of profiting from your arbitrage activities, making a 0% arb into a profitable trade if you have to deposit.

One of my arbitrage colleagues actually moves his money around every Monday morning to make profits from this incentive.

You can read more of Mark's strategies for risk free cash, including how he made a risk free 75% on an arb, in this months Betting Insiders report.

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Today's Selection courtesy of Betting Insiders

Redc 1735 Sorcellerie (Gen 11/2)

A – Z of Betting

Accumulators

I guess most readers know what an accumulator is, but there are some lesser known ways to bet on accumulators these days.

First let's start with the basics.

An Accumulator is a bet where the winnings from one selection roll on to the next bet, which in turn run on to the next and so on for as mant bets that you have put in your accumulator.


So for example if you place a £10 accumulator on 4 horses all at even money then horse 1 will convert your £10 into £20 which will be placed on horse 2. If that wins the profit will then be £40, which will be placed on horse 3.

If that wins then £80 is returned and placed on horse 4.

For your accumulator to win all the selections have to win. So accumulators don't come in often but when they do the returns are big.

Accumulators have been a staple bet forever, but what's new is that you can now make an accumulator bet at Betfair, which could mean bigger returns.

But what's more interesting is that on some sports you can now lay an accumulator.

So for example if you lay an accumulator on a series of football match home wins you only need one of those home teams to lose for your lay to be successful and pay you your profit.

It takes a moment to get your head around how this works but it's worth checking out Betfair Multiples and having a play.

Also note that the lay options don't show by default, there is a tick box that you need to check to get the lay options.


Today's Selection courtesy of Trainer Trends

Doncaster 1.40 Breden (4/1 Bet365. BetVictor)

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