Tag Archives: home wins

Football and Racing Tips

I had a bet last night for today's Cheltenham meeting that demonstrates how far you can beat the market by following tipsters who do their own race assessments rather than waiting for markets to form and letting those markets influence their decisions.

At 5pm yesterday the Racing consultants sent their members a note telling them to get on a horse that was available at 8/1 and that on their assessment should be much shorter.

I had my little tenner on with Bet 365 and now the horse is 5/1 with Bet 365 and best priced 11/2.

This horse might lose, but to me it will be remembered as a good bet whether it wins or loses because it is my strong opinion that you should judge your bets by how much you beat starting price not by whether they win or lose.

This might sound crazy to some readers. But others will know that if you keep beating starting price by big margins that the profits will take care of themselves.

I'm going to give you the bet and the full assessment in a minute, but first I'd like to recommend that whether it wins or loses that if you are serious about winning that you join the Racing Consultants service.

These guys send out bets like this one on a regular basis and they beat the market.

http://racingconsultants.co.uk

By the way they sent another one at 5.20, but I'm not allowed to give that one, but if you join them you can get immediate access.

Here's the race assessment and bet…

2.25 FREEBETS.COM TROPHY CHASE (2M5F)

“Little Jon impressed me enough as a hurdler last year despite his build and background suggesting he’d be much better over fences, and he proved the point at the first time of asking at Newton Abbot in October, giving weight and a beating to the Paul Nicholls-trained Solar Impulse.

That preceded a trio of runs in higher company here, and the bottom line is that the long-striding son of Pasternak hasn’t beaten another rival.

That said, he actually ran a cracker when a close third over 2m in November, and has crashed out when leading on his next two starts.

Despite those aberrations, he appeals as a pretty sound jumper, if inclined to take the occasional fence (or indeed wing) on.

The upside of his failures is that he’s not revealed the full extent of his ability, and therefore the handicapper hasn’t been as severe as he might have been, accepting that an opening mark of 140 is no gimme.

Main opposition comes primarily in the shape of Easter Day for Paul Nicholls, and he can’t be ruled out of calculations, for all his odds will be skinny enough.

More interesting at the forecast prices is Annacotty, who was second in the novice handicap on this card last year. He was another who couldn’t cope with the demands of the Hennessy first time out, but he’s reportedly been perked up by a spell hunting, and also has cheekpieces fitted, so should have no excuses.

He was a Grade 1 winner last year, and that fact shouldn’t be overlooked.

2.25 Chel – 2pts win Little Jon @ 8/1 (Bet365)”

As mentioned above current best price is 11/2 with Skybet, Bet Victor, Paddy Power

Football Perm

We had a win last week with The Alternative Punters Syndicate (Free Trial Here)
and this week I've gone with their home wins perm…

Top Rated ‘Best 6 Homes'
(Perm any 5 from 6 plus all 6 = 7 bets)
TOTTENHAM
NORWICH
WATFORD
WOLVES
MK DONS
BARNET
The best overall odds* for the ‘Best 6 Homes' are available with…

Coral

A – Z of Betting

Accumulators

I guess most readers know what an accumulator is, but there are some lesser known ways to bet on accumulators these days.

First let's start with the basics.

An Accumulator is a bet where the winnings from one selection roll on to the next bet, which in turn run on to the next and so on for as mant bets that you have put in your accumulator.


So for example if you place a £10 accumulator on 4 horses all at even money then horse 1 will convert your £10 into £20 which will be placed on horse 2. If that wins the profit will then be £40, which will be placed on horse 3.

If that wins then £80 is returned and placed on horse 4.

For your accumulator to win all the selections have to win. So accumulators don't come in often but when they do the returns are big.

Accumulators have been a staple bet forever, but what's new is that you can now make an accumulator bet at Betfair, which could mean bigger returns.

But what's more interesting is that on some sports you can now lay an accumulator.

So for example if you lay an accumulator on a series of football match home wins you only need one of those home teams to lose for your lay to be successful and pay you your profit.

It takes a moment to get your head around how this works but it's worth checking out Betfair Multiples and having a play.

Also note that the lay options don't show by default, there is a tick box that you need to check to get the lay options.


Today's Selection courtesy of Trainer Trends

Doncaster 1.40 Breden (4/1 Bet365. BetVictor)

Home Advantage: Easy Money?

The Betting Insiders report has just landed on my doormat.

I read it cover to cover as soon as it lands.

The piece that caught my eye, especially as I'm thinking about my Premier League bets for the weekend, is regarding home advantage.

Leon Pidgeon has done some detailed research on whether home advantage exists.

And more specifically, how much should it effect the selections we bet on.

The first shocking stat is that over the last five seasons of English and Scottish football you could just blindly back the away team and almost break even (0.16% loss on investment)

That's at bookmaker prices!

Leon goes on to analyse individual leagues both in the UK and all over Europe to see where home advantage is a factor and where it is not.

It wouldn't be fair for me to share the stats publicly. After all Leon has put in hours of work and club members have paid for this research via their subs.

But the point I want to make is that this research goes against one of my rules of football betting.

That is that the home, away, draw football markets are tight and that my profit needs to come from the side markets where I can be more expert. Than the experts.

What this home advantage research shows me is that we can get ahead of the bookies in the lower leagues.

It makes sense that odds makers will be looser in these markets where not so much is bet.

In summary I have learned that…

  • In every league the percentage of home wins is higher than aways or draws. As you would expect.
  • In some leagues that advantage is lower
  • More pertinent to us, in some leagues there is value in the home prices
  • And in others there is value in the away prices (Leon gives valid reasons why this might be the case)

This research doesn't mean that I'm going to be blindly backing homes or aways in the relevant leagues, but rather that I will factor this into my footie bets.

And it might herald a move back into  the match odds market. Which I currently only use for trading.

What do you think – feel free to argue in the comments 😉

Source: Betting Insiders Club

Today's Selection

Southwell 1.20 Caledonia Prince – Win Bet

 

 

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